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Russian independent oil refinery for sale
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 May 2019

On May 21 Antipinsky oil refinery declared bankruptcy. This is one of the main refineries in the Tyumen Region. Sberbank owns 80% of the refinery since Antipinsky owes money to Sberbank. SOCAR (State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic) is considering buying the refinery. The remaining 20% is ...

Zelenskiy appoints a new presidential administration
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 May 2019

On May 20 Zelenskiy was inaugurated as president. There was much concern over who he would appoint to the cabinet since he is a political ingenue.Two people from Kvartal 95 (Zelenskiy's TV production company) have been appointed to the presidential administration. Andriy Bohdan was head of the pr...

A change in Chinese demand for American soy
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 24 May 2019 · 1 response

As a follow up to my newsletter, it occurred to me that there may indeed be a change in Chinese demand for American soy over the next two years, but not because of trade sanctions. As everyone knows by now, China is suffering from a tremendous pork shortage thanks to the ravages of swine flu. A l...

What follows the remarkable election outcome
INDIA · Report · 24 May 2019

Narendra Modi has scored a historic win. It is hard to recall a moment in Indian history when the outcome of an election has been so decisive. India is now in that rare situation, of a leadership endowed with electoral legitimacy, that has a five-year horizon. Last time, in 2014, the BJP launc...

Kocharyan’s trial sparks political crisis in Armenia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 May 2019

On May 18, former President Robert Kocharyan was surprisingly released on bail after spending 5 months in prison on pre-trial. The decision was completely unexpected because only five days before – the day the trial started - Kocharyan based his defence on the lack of legitimacy of the court, as ...

The South African Reserve Bank remains dovish following the country’s general elections
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 23 May 2019

The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee has once again decided to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.75%, leaving the prime rate at 10.25%. The last time the Reserve Bank adjusted the repo rate was in November 2018 when it increased it from 6.50% to the current 6.75%, making th...

Trade war hurting everyone
CHINA · Report · 23 May 2019

Almost all major economic indicators are falling. Industrial output was up 5.4% y/y, back to its low January-February level, after its March rise. Fixed asset investment was up 5.7% y/y in April, down 0.6 pps from Q1. Retail sales of social consumption goods were up 7.2% y/y in nominal terms, ...

The ANC’s self-cleansing? The promised renewal, or more complex plots?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 23 May 2019

The first sitting of the National Assembly took place on 22 May 2019 in Cape Town. This marks South Africa’s sixth democratic Parliament with 358 members officially sworn in by Chief Justice Mogoeng Mogoeng. The ruling party ANC (African National Congress) acquired 230 seats while the main opposi...

Hysterics
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 May 2019

We wrote that the Ukrainian establishment is disoriented. We were wrong. Alena Shkrum, MP from Batkivshchyna party wrote that parliament is in hysterics. Whatever is the format of elections – majoritarian vote or the party lists – Zelenskiy takes the majority. Collecting 226 seats through the par...

How China can and cannot retaliate on trade
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 23 May 2019

Special points to highlight in this issue: * The mood changed dramatically in China last week, with Beijing now angrily criticizing Washington for its role in the trade negotiations. * Beijing’s change of strategy should be seen primarily within a domestic political context. President X...

Capital flows and China’s RMB policy
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 22 May 2019

The RMB is supported by Chinese capital “round-tripping” Inward capital flows have been encouraged by Beijing through a variety of policies. These inward flows have helped to support the strength of the RMB. However, our studies suggest the majority of this capital is, in fact, institutional C...

Electoral law update failed today
UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 May 2019

Parliament rejected to approve amendments to electoral law Volodymyr Zelenskiy proposed (proportional list instead of majoritarian vote and reduction of entry barrier down to 3% from 5% currently). The initiative was not even included to the agenda. Today it was time for Speaker of the parliament...

Recent troubles and downgrades
INDIA · In Brief · 22 May 2019

In previous reports, we have been watching the distance-to-default (DtD) of large private financial firms. Using data for 10 May, we had found that there were 3 large private banks (Federal Bank, IDFC First Bank, Yes Bank) and 6 large private NBFCs (Shriram Transport Finance, Edelweiss Financial,...

Kolomoyskiy lawyer appointed head of president office
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 May 2019 · 1 response

Andrey Bohdan, lawyer of Ihor Kolomoyskiy was appointed head of the president office. Mixed feelings about this decision. Definitely a bad signal for the IMF in the context of Privatbank issues. However, personally, I had a positive impression from his interview he gave to journalists after first...

Electoral law set to be changed
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 May 2019 · 1 response

Events are developing extremely fast. After consultations with Volodymyr Zelenskiy leaders of parliamentary factions reported today that early parliamentary elections will be on July 21. On the top of that MPs reported about an agreement to change election law and to cancel majoritarian votes. In...

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