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Politics: Centralized/militarized security approach
MEXICO · Report · 26 Nov 2018

President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s newly unveiled National Peace and Security Plan 2018-2024 is painfully short on details, especially when it comes to public security, but at least provides some clues as to the government’s priorities for the next six years. It simply assumes that ...

Risks for the next government and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Nov 2018

Wednesday, November 28, is the deadline for President Temer to sanction or veto the salary increase for Supreme Court ministers. The fiscal impact in 2019 could reach R$ 4.1 billion. President-elect Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) may conclude the selection of his cabinet team. On Friday, November 30, IBGE ...

Russia tries to encourage auto manufacturing
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Nov 2018

Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak said last week that he wishes to see equal access to state subventions for all motor manufacturing. Kozak proposed phasing out industrial assembly agreements and replacing them with special investment contracts (SPIKs). Kozak said he wished to see draft legislat...

Economics: Transition pros and (mostly) cons
MEXICO · Report · 26 Nov 2018 · 1 response

With only one week left before the next government takes office, we have already experienced one of the most active intergovernmental transition periods in the country’s history, judging by the intensity and impact of the decisions, proposals and precipitous actions of President-elect López Obrad...

COSTA RICA: Green light from Constitutional Court
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Nov 2018

​On Friday, November 23rd, the Constitutional Court (“Sala IV”) gave green light to the fiscal reform package with a unanimous 7-0 vote. The decision came after a public service workers general strike and more than one-year discussions on the project. It also came after the Supreme Court indica...

Changes in the international economy and reflections in Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Nov 2018

Until the start of this year, the international economy was favorable to the execution of economic policy in emerging countries. The global economy was marked by “synchronized growth” between mature and emerging countries, and there was a general belief that interest rates in developed countries ...

We expect a rate hike today, against market expectations
ISRAEL · Report · 26 Nov 2018

We expect a rate hike today, against the overwhelming consensus expecting a rate-hold decision. A rate hike will be supported by inflation entrenchment, fairly steady growth, a tight labor market/wage pressure and recent shekel depreciation. Although the MPC may decide to wait for the new Governo...

Walking the tightrope
VENEZUELA · Report · 26 Nov 2018

Not only did the Colombian guerrilla penetration of the Orinoco Mining Belt and its attack against a column of Venezuelan troops inside the Venezuelan border last November 4 cast light on what a tough time Maduro is having controlling the mining region and Venezuela’s borders, it also caused shoc...

Russia attacks Ukrainian naval ships: President calls for martial law
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Nov 2018

Military scenario that we considered in our September report (“IMF arrives, as election prospects turn murky”, 11 Sep 2018) started unfolding in quite unexpected manner. Media reported that Russians attacked Ukrainian naval ships in the Sea of Azov (reportedly three naval vessels have been captur...

Armenia probes Gazprom
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Nov 2018

The Armenian Government has launched a probe into Gazprom Armenia. It is alleged that there has been corruption and tax evasion. The two offences are widespread in Armenia. Gazprom Armenia is affiliated to the Russian semi state gas giant. The sum involved in the alleged corruption and tax evasio...

A perverse improvement in fundamentals
TURKEY · Report · 25 Nov 2018

The title for this week's report refers to perceptions of improved political stability as well as of economic fundamentals – of a perverse kind -- because especially the latter hugely worry us in the medium-term, but could do wonders for investors in the very short-term. As President Erdogan a...

Moldova may lose EU aid
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Nov 2018

Last week the European Parliament voted to scrap financial support to Moldova. However, the decision is not final. The EU suspects that Moldovan politicians and bureaucrats 'disappeared' USD 1 Billion in 2015. The EU thinks that Moldova is not going anything serious about embezzlement and tax eva...

Moody's kept Baa3/Stable rating for Hungary unchanged yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Nov 2018

Moody's failed to improve the government's Baa3/Stable rating on the occasion of this year's last revision date for any major rating agency yesterday. Analysts typically did not expect an upgrade, but a number of them expected an improvement of the rating outlook to positive, just as it happened ...

Slow Ukrainian economic growth
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Nov 2018

The Ukrainian State Statistical Service declared that GDP growth for the third quarter of 2018 was 2.8%. This may seem impressive but it is lower than for the previous two quarters. Ukraine's budget is predicated on growth of at least 3%. The World Bank predicts that Ukrainian growth will slow ev...

CIS essential business briefing
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 23 Nov 2018

* Russian tensions with Atlantic nations increase, but so do defense sales to Asia * Ukraine geographical and religious splits deepen, while IMF program to be reaffirmed * Georgian presidential elections show weakness for Georgian Dream

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