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“Our proposal has been misunderstood”
COLOMBIA · Report · 13 Dec 2018 · 1 response

President Iván Duque recently gave an interview to a Cali radio station as part of an effort to counter the negative (to put it mildly) press coverage that both student protests and his tax reform proposal have attracted. The president contended that his tax plan had been “misunderstood.” Indeed,...

Inflation closes at 2.2 million percent in 2018
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Dec 2018

We adjusted down our August-November 2018 inflation series reflecting new data available. As a result, our inflation forecast for December goes down to 198.7 percent % and the 2018 year-on-year rate closes at 2.2 million percent for 2018. This annual forecast is significantly lower than the proje...

MPC: Policy rate kept at 24%, as expected
TURKEY · In Brief · 13 Dec 2018

In line with the market consensus, the CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee kept the policy rate (one-week repo rate) unchanged at 24% (simple) today, at the last meeting of the year. Recall that after raising the policy rate by 625 bps at its September meeting (on September 13th), the Bank had kept ...

The capital of the Russian Far East will be shifted
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Dec 2018

On 10 December President Putin announced that the capital of the Far Eastern Region will be shifted from Khabarovsk to Vladivostok. Vladivostok is the southernmost Russian Pacific port. It does a lot of trade with Japan and North Korea. By contrast Khabarovsk does more trade with China.

​HEADS UP: Erdogan promises military campaign East of Euphrates
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Dec 2018

Erdogan and other senior members of his administration including Defense Minister retired Gen Hulusi Akar openly stated that Turkey will launch a military campaign in North-East Syria (East of Euphrates) to shut down “the terror corridor”.The target area is controlled by a pro-PKK Kurdish entity ...

Russian Ministry of Finance pegs borrowing to inflation
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Dec 2018

As of 19 December the Ministry of Finance will issue inflation linked Rubles denominated debt OFZs on a monthly basis. There is a growing demand for bonds linked to inflation. This is because economic uncertainty makes investors want to ensure that the value of their returns are not diminished by...

MPC preview+
TURKEY · Report · 12 Dec 2018

The Monetary Policy Committee will meet tomorrow (December 13, 2018). The consensus forecasts we’ve seen from multiple media sources uniformly anticipate no change in short-term rates. We strongly concur with the consensus, although, given the Bank’s track record, we would never completely rule o...

Armenian election victory for governing party
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Dec 2018

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's electoral alliance won over 70% of the vote on 9 December. The My Step Alliance smashed the Republican Party which used to be the government. The Republican Party now has no one left in parliament. Pashinyan came to office earlier this year after a wave o...

South Africa’s national minimum wage to come into effect in 2019
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 11 Dec 2018

South Africa’s National Minimum Wage Act, 2018 was gazetted on November 27, 2018 following a long period of consultation with social partners. The Act states its purpose as the advancement of economic development and social justice by: i. Improving the wages of the lowest paid workers; ii. Prot...

State elections and a new Governor
INDIA · Report · 11 Dec 2018

Two major developments in India have reduced the recent uncertainty about politics and economics in the country. The first was the counting and announcements of results of state elections in which the ruling BJP lost elections. The Congress party, which had lost the 2014 elections, made a comebac...

Politics: Inaugural festivities and the 4T
MEXICO · Report · 11 Dec 2018

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s inaugural speeches and festivities shed new light on the thinking behind his project for the Fourth Transformation (4T) of Mexico. It has long been clear the project is to involve a change of “political regime” that would bring an end to a corrupt symbiotic...

The MNB received help from tumbling fuel prices in November
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Dec 2018

The Statistical Office (KSH) this morning reported November CPI-inflation at -0.3% mom, 3.1% yoy, the latter sharply down from the six-year high of 3.8% yoy, measured in the previous month. Portfolio.hu, the leading economic media domestically, called the news as a major positive surprise, agains...

Cautious and gradual
CHILE · Report · 11 Dec 2018

Central Bank national accounts for Q3 show that economic activity has slowed significantly. This marks the end of the cyclical recovery. Consumption showed a clear and protracted deceleration, while investment remained relatively dynamic. Exports rebounded, after a slump of a similar magnitude in...

Anemic growth for the Russian economy
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Dec 2018

The Russian Statistical Commission estimated fourth quarter GDP is up 1.3%. The quarter is not yet over. The third quarter was 1.9%. Public finances are healthy. Overall household spending and disposable income are slightly down on last year. VAT is going up. Deloitte revealed that 61% of people ...

Russia reintroduces state planning
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Dec 2018 · 2 responses

The Russian Ministry of Economic Development has issued a plan to run up to an including 2035. It divides the country into economic zones. Each will be allotted federal funds to help economic development. Different regions will be tasked with different sectors of the economy to develop. However, ...

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