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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A new communications model and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Dec 2018

On Wednesday, Jair Bolsonaro meets with his cabinet team. On the same day, the Public Ministry of Rio hears Flávio Bolsonaro’s former parliamentary advisory, Fabrício José de Queiroz, who, according to Coaf, has been involved in suspicious financial activity. Congress votes on the 2019 Budget. Th...

Official economic outlook and budget for 2018: In search of lost credibility
MEXICO · Presentation · 17 Dec 2018

The macroeconomic assumptions of the 2019 Economic Package and Public Sector Budget are mostly credible, with domestic and external indicators largely fitting general expectations. In general, AMLO seems to be making a commitment to conduct a solid fiscal policy, which may help him recover some o...

Politics: What a difference an inauguration makes
MEXICO · Report · 17 Dec 2018

The launch of the new government has dramatically changed the country’s mood as the eminently negative sentiments the Peña Nieto government generated during its last years in office have given way to a sense of optimism and even elation among almost two thirds of society. In our latest poll, only...

Russian Central Bank forecasts
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Dec 2018

The Russian Central Bank (CBR) stated that inflation is 3.9% which is just below the target of 4%. The CBR has forecast that inflation will rise to at least 5% in the first half of 2019. The VAT increase and the decline of the RUR will contribute to this. Oil prices are down a little and the CBR ...

At the end of an era, searching for new directions...
TURKEY · Presentation · 17 Dec 2018

Turkey’s growth model looks as if it has run out of steam, with recent developments indicating that this phase is looking different (for the worse). We look at Turkey’s recent economic history and give a summary of the country’s current situation. Outline: • A little history, context, summ...

An attack, new money, and a strangely strong Hryvnia
UKRAINE · Report · 17 Dec 2018

The IMF Executive Board has added Ukraine to its agenda for a December 18th meeting. Since the government has done all of its homework, expectations are positive. The only uncertainty is the size of the next tranche. The EU has already wired €500 million under its new Macro Financial Assistance p...

Inflation expectations move higher on planned price hikes and weaker shekel
ISRAEL · Report · 17 Dec 2018

November's CPI (1.2% y/y) came in slightly lower than expected, and core inflation declined to 0.8% y/y. We see inflation reaching 1.3% in 2019 on a slightly weaker shekel and a steady increase in housing rentals. Although the CA surplus surprised on the upside (reaching 2% GDP in Q318), FX deman...

Trade surpluses: High also in 2019
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Dec 2018

The mercantilist view that high trade surpluses are good for Brazil collapses when considering that their growth since the end of 2015 has largely been due to the reduction of imports, generated by the precipitous decline of fixed capital investments. Exports have also grown in the period, benefi...

​On Syria and domestic tensions: Political risk is rising
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Dec 2018

Since my last comments on Turkey’s stated intention to invade North East Syria, it made irrevocable commitments to carry out its promise. Negotiations with White House are presumably underway, which will delay the execution the military campaign, but room for compromise is very narrow. At the end...

Mexico's president in search for lost credibility
MEXICO · In Brief · 16 Dec 2018

As you know the economic and fiscal package was submitted yesterday to Mexican Congress. It is expected to be approved by sometime next week with no maor changes. In general it is designed to preserve economic stabilty next year, after consider loss of confidence by cancelling Mexico City new air...

Ukrainian ports almost deserted
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Dec 2018

Since Ukrainian warships were seized by Russia in November traffic to and from the ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk has almost stopped. Russia allows merchant ships to sail through the Kerch Strait that connects the ports to the Black Sea. However, inspections in the Kerch Strait often cause delay...

Autocephaly of Ukrainian Church
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Dec 2018

Yesterday, on December 15, gathering of Ukrainian clerics established independent Ukrainian Orthodox Church and elected a 39-year-old Metropolitan Epifaniy as the leader of the new church. That was a historical event, see for more details “Ukrainian church to receive Independence: Russia might es...

Russian Central Bank hikes key rate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2018

On 14 December the Russian Central Bank (CBR) raised the key rate by 25 basis points. It is not 7.7%. The bank noted the danger of short term inflation and the possibility of US sanctions prompted the move. This moved surprised many. From 15 January 2019 the bank shall recommence foreign currency...

​Russian Ministry of Finance plans to restrict regional debt
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Dec 2018

In Russia, regional governments will not be permitted to spend over 10% of their budgets on servicing debt. The Ministry of Finance will place further restrictions on regions that it regards as overly indebted. Some of the poorer regions have borrowed heavily and have debts over 100% of GDP. Solu...

The NBU keeps policy rate unchanged at 18%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Dec 2018

On Dec 13, the NBU Board decided to leave policy rate unchanged at 18.0%. The Board ignored Kerch Strait crisis and treated easily still strong inflation (+1.4% m/m or 10% y/y) sine the large part of November CPI growth was driven by a 23.5% gas tariffs’ increase. Positive signals from the IMF (t...

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