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​President Medina makes his mark in the Constitutional Court
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 31 Dec 2018

President Medina has just left his mark in the Constitutional Court. As mandated by the Constitution, four of the thirteen judges that make up that court were replaced, and as expected, the new appointees changed the balance of power within the court. Although Medina did not manage to get full co...

Fiscal consolidation expected following the elections, including tax hikes
ISRAEL · Report · 31 Dec 2018

PC indicators point to some acceleration in Q418, compared to Q3. The labor market remains tight, supportive of wage pressure. Israeli institutions are increasing the FX exposure in their portfolios. Fiscal consolidation is expected following the elections, which is likely to include higher taxe...

​Turkey in Syria: A realignment, more than an opportunity or risk
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 Dec 2018

I thought the best New Year’s gift to our audience will be to leave them alone during the festive season, because most political news from Turkey is bad news. Alas, the tradition continues and I must end the year with the prediction of the “first crisis in 2019”.As much as the word crisis is over...

Relatively good news for inflation: statutory minimum wages were announced for 2019-2020
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Dec 2018

Finance minister Varga announced this morning that statutory minimum wages will be raised by 8% both in 2019 (starting from January) and in 2020. This refers to both existing wage thresholds, the lower one for unskilled labor and a higher one maintained for unskilled labor alike. The news came af...

Russian Government approves VEB recapitalization
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Dec 2018

Prime Minister Medvedev announced that VEB.RF will be recapitalized through subscription capital. VEB is a state corporation. VEB will now be a ''project financing factory''. Igor Shuvalov is its head and he plans to reduce its staff from 8000 to 3000.

Economy in 2018, in pictures
TURKEY · Report · 28 Dec 2018

• We have decided to revive an old tradition of ours in this final report of the year, that of looking at the economics of the full year, (mostly) in pictures -- hoping that you’ll find it useful. • Needless to say, 2018 was a very tough year especially for Turkey, as an emerging market-unfriend...

Ending 2018 with confidence
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Dec 2018

The month of December 2018 is set to end with greater confidence. Indonesian President Joko Widodo inaugurated the last stretches of the Trans Java toll road on December 20, 2018, and on the following day holiday travelers started to utilize the road happily. Many Indonesians celebrate Christmas ...

Russian toll system operator to receive USD 1.75 Billion
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Dec 2018

On 20 December it was announced that Platon, the Russian toll system operator, will receive USD 1.75 Billion from now to 2024. Platon organizes the charges for trucks to use the roads and then ploughs the money into road maintenance. Platon is administered through RT Invest Transport Systems. It ...

COSTA RICA: Two cheers for fiscal reform
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Dec 2018

Costa Rica’s significant political step, of congressional approval of the fiscal reform package, has generated mixed results. It brought some calm and lowered uncertainty, by building up confidence in the political system’s capacity to make decisions, even when unpopular measures are required. In...

2019-2020 Outlook: Disorderly default
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 27 Dec 2018 · 2 responses

In our 2019–2020 central scenario, Venezuela’s economy remains in a deep hole and the external deficit opens so wide that something has to give, though we don’t know what that will be. Venezuela is already going through a disorderly default on its external debt, even if so far it has occurred in ...

Consumption dips as growth hits new low
CHINA · Report · 26 Dec 2018

Top leaders’ annual Central Economic Work Conference, held from December 19th to 21st, set countering the ongoing growth downturn as its main 2019 goal for the economy. Leaders pledged to cut taxes and fees “on a greater scale;” to increase the issuance of local government bonds by “a relatively...

Politics: Discontent with 2019 budget grows
MEXICO · Report · 26 Dec 2018

Given the absence of any significant tax changes, the revenue side of President López Obrador’s 2019 budget proposals has not attracted much controversy. But the government’s commitment to cap tax rates, expand the primary surplus and pursue costly new social programs led it to make deep cuts els...

Economics: Budget search for credibility lost
MEXICO · Report · 26 Dec 2018

The new government’s 2019 budget package includes relatively credible economic and financial assumptions underpinning a relatively austere budget proper as evidenced by a low fiscal deficit as the new government proposes some deep spending cuts to make room for its ambitious social policy agenda....

Official date confirm our estimations of deceleration
PANAMA · Report · 26 Dec 2018

According to data published by the Comptroller's General Office last week, real GDP grew 3.6% in Q3 and 3.6% from January to September. In YTD terms, growth was driven by transportation and communications, commerce, health and social services, realty and services to business, financial intermedia...

US withdrawal from Afghanistan has pros and cons for Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Dec 2018

Trump's 22 December announcement that he will withdraw most troops from Afghanistan is good news for Russia. Its influence in Russia will be enhanced. Former USSR countries in Central Asia will be even more heavily reliant on Russia than before to help them against ISIS and the Taleban now that t...

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