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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: An Insufficiently Austere Budget
MEXICO · Report · 15 Sep 2015

The Ministry of Finance handed Congress its 2016 budget proposals on Tuesday, September 8. The budget package includes both the revenue and spending bills along with the document containing the general economic assumptions that underpin the budget proposals. The various components of the 2016 pac...

Politics: Peña’s Ratings Tank as Distrust Grows
MEXICO · Report · 15 Sep 2015

As it approaches the midway point in its six-year term of office, the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto faces its lowest approval ratings to date. The economy’s sluggish performance, growing perceptions of official corruption and the public’s sense that conditions of public security ...

​Concerned about escalating political risk
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Sep 2015

I was about to fire off a post about rising political risks, when an astute reader beat me to it with a couple of questions. As per my time-honored custom, s/he shall remain anonymous, but her/his questions and my answers shall live forever in memories like a beacon of hard-nosed strategic analys...

The Current Account Deficit Continues to Contract
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 15 Sep 2015

The seasonally adjusted annualized current account balance posted a figure of minus R124 billion, bringing the current account balance as a percentage of GDP to -3.1% in Q2 2015. This represents a contraction in the current account deficit as a percentage of GDP from -4.7% in Q1 2015. This contra...

Fiscal adjustment
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Sep 2015

The government announced a set of spending cuts and tax increases totaling R$ 64.9 billion on Monday, September 14. Almost 50% of this total (R$ 32 billion) would come from the re-creation of the CPMF (Provisional Contribution on Financial Operations), which depends upon congressional approval.R$...

Forecast update
CHILE · Report · 14 Sep 2015

A great deal of water has flowed under the bridge since our last forecast, so we decided to update it. In a nutshell: we expect lower growth and higher inflation for the next two years (at least). We are not alone. Consensus Forecasts, the government and the Central Bank have moved in the same di...

Week of September 14
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Sep 2015

The main topics for the week are the spending cuts announcement and the impeachment debate in the House. The Senate votes on the Provisional Measure that increases the CSLL for financial institutions. AlexandreTombini (Tuesday) and Mangabeira Unger (Thursday) speak on the economic crisis in the S...

The Downgrade of the Credit Rating
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Sep 2015

To anyone who pays a minimum attention to the indications given by Brazil’s CDS quotations, it has long been clear that the country – sooner or later – would lose its investment grade rating. Last month, its quotations had already climbed well off the average relationship between the S&P credit r...

Urgent: Improve Migration Policy
HUNGARY · Report · 14 Sep 2015

The influx of Middle Eastern refugees is placing rising pressure on Hungary, and is becoming the country’s top political issue. The government has two options, neither of them favorable for Fidesz or for Hungary. The country could either defy the EU, blocking the entry of new migrants and allowin...

Weekly Tracker: September 13-19
TURKEY · Report · 13 Sep 2015

After devastating PKK attacks on Turkish security forces, Turkey experienced near-riots in the West, which may get worse if a cease-fire is not declared. This is not a likely scenario, but Ankara doesn’t have a viable strategy to combat terror, either. But we remain optimistic for a lasting solut...

Inflection points
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 11 Sep 2015

We extend our forecast horizon to 2017. We envision a short-term policy path that’s unsustainable. Hence dramatic forks (“inflection points”) lie somewhere in the road ahead, at which regime change, major policy reform, and default on the sovereign debt become real possibilities. When Venezuela w...

Dilma Rousseff Government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Sep 2015

The government reacted with dissonance to the news of Standard & Poor’s downgrade of Brazil’s investment grade rating. The Ministry of Finance lamented the rating agency’s decision and is trying to find alternatives to counteract the negative impact of the announcement. In an interview with TV...

Economics: A Pass-through Effect to Come
MEXICO · Report · 10 Sep 2015

The increase in producer prices as tracked by Mexico’s national Producer Price Index (PPI) suggests that the higher costs will eventually translate into a higher rate of consumer inflation. We should note the need to analyze the rise in producer prices from various angles. One of these is rela...

Politics: Government Re-launch Fails to Lift Off
MEXICO · Report · 10 Sep 2015

Hopes that this year’s State of the Nation Report and President Enrique Peña Nieto’s accompanying nationwide address might signal a major change of approach and policies were dashed last week as seemingly self-critical introductory remarks quickly gave way to self-serving and questionable claims ...

On Q2 Growth: “Damn the Torpedoes…”
TURKEY · Report · 10 Sep 2015

The Turkish economy grew by a higher than expected 3.8% in Q2, y/y, thanks to a sharp increase in domestic demand (6.8%, y/y), which made a 6.7 pps contribution to overall GDP growth in Q2. The contributions of net exports and inventories were negative, broadly in line with expectations, shaving ...

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