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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Aug 20
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Brazil Economics databank Sep 13
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Central America databank Aug 30
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Chile databank Sep 13
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Sep 5
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Dominican Republic databank Sep 13
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Ecuador databank Aug 20
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Gulf Countries databank Sep 13
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Hungary databank Sep 10
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India databank Aug 23
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Mexico databank Sep 11
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Panama databank Sep 11
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Peru databank Aug 22
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Philippines databank Sep 10
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Russia Economics databank Sep 12
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South Africa databank Aug 30
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Turkey databank Jun 10
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Ukraine databank Aug 14
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Venezuela databank Sep 11
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - ARGENTINA: UPCOMING TRIGGERS AND REMAINING CONCERNS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Party's Over
PERU · Forecast · 22 Aug 2013
Executive SummaryExport decline plus lower growth rate of domestic demand led to H1 GDP growth slowdown, to 5.1% y/y, from 6.3% in the same period in 2012 (and an average of 6.5% over the decade). We expect slower private investment expansion in H2, given weaker business confidence. But public sp...
The New International Environment, the Real Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Aug 2013
The global scenario has changed. On the one hand, the more vigorous growth in the United States has brought signals that the Federal Reserve will soon start easing back on its asset purchases, while on the other there are clear indications of slower growth in China. Against this backdrop, there i...
Slow and Gradual Economic Policy
VENEZUELA · Report · 22 Aug 2013
Executive Summary With December municipal elections nearing, President Maduro and the PSUV face political challenges from within chavismo as well as from the opposition. Small allied parties are protesting for having been offered only 5 percent of the candidacies. The base is unhappy that no prim...
Pdvsa 2035 show up in Sicad
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 21 Aug 2013 · 2 responses
The BCV bond portfolio emerges as a source of funds for Sicad auctions. The BCV has called a $330 million bid which will be funded through the sale of Pdvsa 2035, without affecting its dwindling foreign reserves. The Sicad bond system differs from Sitme. In Sicad, importers will not acquire bonds...
Mexico’s two earthquakes: one shook the capital, the other economic growth
MEXICO · In Brief · 21 Aug 2013
Mexico suffered a mid-strong earthquake this morning, fortunately with no major consequences. That’s not the case with GDP growth figures for Q2 released yesterday by INEGI. They show a contraction of 0.74% compared to previous quarter and 1.5 % on annual basis. This came as a big surprise since ...
Turkey’s new Middle East policy: Precious isolation
TURKEY · Report · 21 Aug 2013
It is astounding how rapidly Erdogan alienates Turkey’s allies in the Middle East. The last two victims of his boundless rage are Egypt and Israel—for a third time. Once a contender for the role of king-maker in the region, aspiring to export its economic and political model, Ankara is increasing...
Headline Inflation Rate Breaches the 6 per cent level
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 21 Aug 2013
According to figures released today by Statistics South Africa, the headline inflation rate for July 2013 recorded 6.3 per cent year-on-year, a tad higher than the market’s expectation of 6.2 per cent. Given that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) had anticipated the headline inflation rate to...
Philippines:Typhoon, monsoon, floods
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 21 Aug 2013
Financial markets remained closed for the third straight day as a public holiday today followed two days of heavy rains and severe flooding in Metro Manila and surrounding provinces. Storm Maring (international name, Trami) dumped over a month's volume of rains in the south of Manila yesterday s...
Timid Defense of the Lira Continues
TURKEY · Report · 20 Aug 2013
The Monetary Policy Committee raised the O/N lending rate by another 50 bps today, to 7.75%, but left the other two rates -- the weekly policy and O/N borrowing rates -- unchanged (Graph 1). The Committee kept the lending rate for primary dealers at 6.75%, which means that the “normal day rate” h...
Chile: Economic activity expanded 4.1% in second quarter 2013
CHILE · In Brief · 19 Aug 2013
The Chilean economy grew 4.1percent yoy in the second quarter of 2012. Internal demand increased 4.5 percent yoy during the same quarter. This growth was led by private consumption, which grew at a solid 7.0 percent yoy, slightly above the 6.8 percent increase in the first quarter of 2013. The cu...
Election Dynamics Pick Up
CHILE · Report · 19 Aug 2013
It has been an election season full of surprises. First former Mining Minister Laurence withdrew as candidate of the conservative UDI party, to be replaced by veteran former senator and Economy Minister Pablo Longueira. Then in July Longueira unexpectedly withdrew, citing a severe depression, lea...
Conflict Between the Central Bank and Finance Ministry
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Aug 2013
Last Friday the depreciation of the real accelerated, with the exchange rate approaching R$2.40/US$, which is the quotation attained at the height of the crisis in 2008 (Graph 1). Graph 1 Exchange Rate – daily data Winds from the United States contributed to this movement. The probability has bee...
Vehicle Production Hits the Brakes
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 19 Aug 2013
Workers in the South African vehicle industry embarked today on strikes due to a deadlock in wage negotiations between unions and employers. The performance of the vehicle industry has by and large been resilient during the first half of 2013. Also, vehicle sales grew by 7.5% in the year to July ...
Political Algebra of Energy Reform
MEXICO · Report · 19 Aug 2013
Executive Summary The debate on energy reform is formally underway now that President Enrique Peña Nieto unveiled his energy reform proposal. It proved to be less ambitious than many in the private sector and on the right had hoped for, as the government continues to walk a fine political line th...
How the Reform Proposals Stack Up
MEXICO · Report · 19 Aug 2013
Executive Summary The administration of President Enrique Peña sent the Mexican Congress a proposal to reform two articles of the Constitution regarding the energy industry last week. If approved, those changes would allow for private investment in the exploration, extraction, refining, transport...