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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Jul 11
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Brazil Economics databank Jul 15
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Central America databank Jun 27
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Chile databank May 27
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Jul 7
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Dominican Republic databank Jun 18
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Ecuador databank Jun 20
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Gulf Countries databank Jul 11
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Hungary databank Jun 23
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Jul 1
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Jun 27
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Philippines databank Jul 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank Jul 11
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South Africa databank Jul 11
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank Jul 7
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: POLITICAL PASSIONS IN THE...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Week of March 16
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Mar 2015
The effects of the weekend demonstrations will continue to be felt this week.In Congress, we highlight another attempt to vote on the 2015 Budget.Committees will be installed to analyze the fiscal austerity provisional measures.In the Senate, Political Reform bills will be discussed.The House wil...
The End of Exuberance
PERU · Report · 16 Mar 2015
Executive Summary The government has grown more conciliatory after losing its congressional majority. But it’s open season on criticism, with even Vice President Marisol Espinosa finding fault with government policies and ruling party attitudes at times. Dialogue with the opposition resulted in a...
Weekly Tracker: March 15-21
TURKEY · Report · 15 Mar 2015
Executive SummaryIn this Econ-only Tracker, we briefly review the latest date releases and preview the upcoming MPC meeting on Tuesday. We think the MPC will keep rates on hold this week, given the circumstances, even though this solves close to nothing in terms of broader uncertainties regarding...
A Big Growth Surprise from Net Exports
HUNGARY · Report · 13 Mar 2015
Executive Summary Detailed GDP figures for Q4 2014 show that the unexpected strength of output (+0.8% qoq sda) was mainly due to a pick-up in net exports. Consumer demand was also relatively strong, while fixed investment was losing momentum, and inventory accumulation remained markedly negative....
Developments in Fiscal, Financial and Monetary Institutions
INDIA · Report · 13 Mar 2015
Executive Summary There is an important three-pronged move in institution building, which comprises: (a) formal inflation targeting at RBI; (b) unburdening RBI of the conflict of interest of debt management for the government; and (c) giving RBI a bond market through which monetary policy would b...
The Fiscal Deficit, Stupid
ARGENTINA · Report · 13 Mar 2015
Executive Summary In this report, we update the concerns presented a year ago in our report “Dangerous Monetary Arithmetic”. We go into detail with regards the monetary implications of a rising fiscal deficit and the sustainability of the Central Bank’s sterilization cost. The Central Bank steril...
Unemployment and Labor Income in the Recession
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Mar 2015
Executive Summary In this work we discuss the reflections of the expected contraction of GDP em 2015 on the unemployment rate and labor income. In the exercise, we assume that GDP will contract by at least 0.5% and at most 1.5%. The projections are based on data from the Monthly Employment ...
Power Situation Update
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 13 Mar 2015
In its latest update published today, the Department of Energy listed 240 companies that have signed up for the Interruptible Load Program (ILP) under which participants will voluntarily run their own generator sets instead of drawing power from the grid, should there be a power supply shortage. ...
Ecuadorian Government: Whatever it takes
ECUADOR · In Brief · 12 Mar 2015
Despite cuts of $1.4 b in expenditures, the 2015 budget still shows financing needs above $10 b. China came to the rescue with a comprehensive package of loans that amount to $7.5 b but only about $4b will be available in this year. This issue combined with falling yields for the Ecuadorian bonds...
IMF gives us a chance: $5 billion in first installment and demand to keep moving with reforms
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Mar 2015
Well, the IMF approved only $5 billion as first installment instead of $10 billion Ukrainian authorities demanded. Against the backdrop of aggravated internal fights between Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk (and growing rumors about the Cabinet reshuffle) this decision was quite logical. Advance payment ...
First Impressions from the Erdogan-Babacan-Basci-Summit
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Mar 2015
I’m rushing my first impressions from the Erdogan, Babacan and Basci summit which concluded around 8 pm Turkish time last night. A brief statement from Erdogan followed around 9:30 pm. I wanted to pen this so that our Asian readers have something to work with. The summary is brief: Erdogan and hi...
Politics: Anti-graft System’s First Steps
MEXICO · Report · 11 Mar 2015
Executive Summary On February 26, the Chamber of Deputies approved by an overwhelming majority constitutional amendments proposed by the National Action Party for achieving a more effective anti-corruption system. If adopted in its present form, the reform would mark a major step in the right dir...
Economics: Oil Steady, but not Public Finance
MEXICO · Report · 11 Mar 2015
Executive Summary A core issue for defining Mexican public finance, especially as it affects the implementation of the 2015 federal spending budget and the design of the budget for 2016, as well as the country’s trade balance for both this year and next is the extent to which international oil ma...
What to expect from the critical Erdogan-Babacan and Basci summit?
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Mar 2015
Davutoglu received a second briefing today from his economy team and announced that President Erdogan will receive economy czar Babacan CBRT head Basci on Wednesday (time of the meeting not available to me). The critical summit was preceded by a global EM F/X sell-off, massive turmoil in Turkish ...
Week of March 9
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Mar 2015
The list of politicians involved in the Petrobras scandal will dominate the week and should increase the political temperature.The release of the names could influence the protests scheduled for the 15th.President Dilma meets with her political council on Monday.The House analyzes the minimum wag...