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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

GDP’s Q4 2014 Outcome Fails to Lift Annual Growth
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Feb 2015

Statistics South Africa today reported that the inflation adjusted (real) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased notably at a quarterly, seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.1% in the last quarter of 2014. The outcome added two percentage points to the preceding quarter’s rate (see Graph 1). ...

Costa Rica: More Robust, Yet More Vulnerable
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 24 Feb 2015

Executive Summary Economic performance is expected to improve slightly in 2015, compared to previous expectations, and, in some respects, compared to 2014. Despite mixed fiscal signals from the government, we don’t expect turbulent storms this year. External conditions are the main reason: strong...

Cosmic Strategist reviews CBRT decision
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Feb 2015 · 1 response

CBRT fooled the markets once again by cutting the O/N lending by 50 basis point and the weekly repo and the O/N borrowing rates by 25 basis points each. The market had anticipated a minor or no cut in the O/N lending rate and 25-50 basis point cuts in the other two. In the accompanying statement ...

The Moment of Truth
COLOMBIA · Forecast · 23 Feb 2015

Executive Summary This is likely to be a transition year for Colombia: the economy’s vulnerabilities will become apparent toward yearend, as reduced oil income subtracts from government revenues. Four crucial elements will determine the country’s path to recovery: first, oil and commodity price t...

Week of February 23
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Feb 2015

A busy week in Brasília: Expectations are rising surrounding the request to make public the investigation by the Prosecutor General of the Republic against authorities involved in the Lava Jato operation. The Petrobras CPI should be installed in the House. Congress could vote on the 2015 Budget. ...

Weekly Tracker: February 22-28
TURKEY · Report · 22 Feb 2015

Executive Summary ISIS terror may be the new threat to political stability. Turkish military entered Syria on Saturday to evacuate the tiny military contingent defending the Shah Suleiman shrine and to bring home the remains of the titular founder of the Ottoman Empire, suggesting disagreements w...

Green Shoots Multiplying
CHILE · Report · 20 Feb 2015

Executive Summary There are several signals now that the economy is on a recovery path. But we must be cautious. A month ago there was a single variable that gave us some hope: imports of capital goods. In December we were hopeful because this variable expanded significantly. But January’s fig...

2015: Recession, High Inflation and Political Risks
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 19 Feb 2015

Executive Summary There has been a change in the economic policy bearings, starting with a fiscal adjustment and correction of administered prices. But the positive results will not appear in 2015. In the next 12 months the forecasts point to: a) a recession, with a 1% dip in GDP, along wit...

Predictions, Predictions
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Feb 2015

Special Points To Highlight In This Issue: China continues along the path of weak economic data followed by strong expansionary reactions from Beijing, but with the economy bouncing about in an overall downward trajectory. Until the middle or end of this year I do not expect any clear signs that ...

How is the SA Economy Doing?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 19 Feb 2015

According to official figures released by Statistics South Africa, the unemployment rate dropped to 24.3% in the last quarter of 2014 from 25.4% in the preceding quarter. As good as the news seems, one should, however, be cautious in interpreting this outcome. The unemployment figures reported by...

Politics: Corruption Scandals Piling Up
MEXICO · Report · 18 Feb 2015

Executive Summary Graft in Mexico’s political system was once again the subject of front page headlines in the international news media last week as an extensive investigative report in The New York Times revealed questionable real estate dealings in the United States by a career politician and f...

Economics: Cuts Deep in Case of Infrastructure
MEXICO · Report · 18 Feb 2015

Executive Summary In addition to the structural reforms directly related to the economy, one of the current presidential administration’s major objectives is a program for developing infrastructure on an unprecedented scale, which in turn is intended to serve as a catalyst of broader economic gro...

Peace Process: The buck stopped at Qandil
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Feb 2015

Hopes of a historic breakthrough in the peace talks between AKP and Kurdish rights actors were dashed when PKK refused to pull out from Turkey, while Davutoglu responded by turning down PKK’s prior conditions for doing so. The Process is not dead, everyone in Turkey wants peace, but it is best to...

Weekly Tracker: February 15-21
TURKEY · Report · 15 Feb 2015

Executive Summary According to press reports, Ankara and Kurdish rights party HDP are on the verge of announcing a major deal in the ethnic peace talks. From what we read, the deal may still be vetoed by PKK, or scuppered by the passage of the Internal Security Reform Bill. The contents leaked to...

Crazy budget disregard IMF staff-level agreement
UKRAINE · In Brief · 15 Feb 2015

On Feb. 14 the Cabinet approved revised draft budget 2015. So far we know only few numbers but it looks like the suggested spending plan did not experience any austerity measures. In particular, the authorities outlined central budget revenues target at UAH 498 billion which is UAH 134.4 billion ...

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