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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Aug 20
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Brazil Economics databank Sep 13
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Central America databank Aug 30
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Chile databank Sep 13
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Sep 5
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Dominican Republic databank Sep 13
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Ecuador databank Aug 20
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Gulf Countries databank Sep 13
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Hungary databank Sep 10
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India databank Aug 23
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Mexico databank Sep 11
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Panama databank Sep 11
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Peru databank Aug 22
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Philippines databank Sep 10
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Russia Economics databank Sep 12
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South Africa databank Aug 30
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Turkey databank Jun 10
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Ukraine databank Aug 14
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Venezuela databank Sep 11
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - ARGENTINA: UPCOMING TRIGGERS AND REMAINING CONCERNS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Noise in the Economic Activity Indicators
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Sep 2013
The extreme volatility of the data lately has been hampering the task of gauging the economic activity trend. In previous reports we have already indicated this has been happening with the figures on industrial production, where the monthly variations in recent months have been alternating betwee...
All Eyes on the Fed and the SARB
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 16 Sep 2013
This week the Federal Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve Bank meets to discuss the conduct of monetary policy. Expectations are that an announcement will be made concerning the timing and extent of the reduction of the stimulus program, also known as “quantitative easing”.Against thi...
Weekly Tracker: September 15-21
TURKEY · Report · 15 Sep 2013
Executive Summary An American military intervention in Syria is off the table, which leaves Ankara out in the cold. The milestone event in the Kurdish Peace Process is the announcement of the Reform Package during the coming week. Will PM Erdogan bite the electoral bullet and give Kurds what they...
Heads Up
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 14 Sep 2013 · 2 responses
Rumors about conversations between the IMF and the Venezuelan government are emerging. We don’t know if there's any basis for these rumors. However, thinking out of the box, we see both parties having incentives to engage in conversations. For the IMF, this would be an opportunity to reestablish...
Overkill
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 14 Sep 2013
Executive Summary The Central Bank’s abrupt reversal of its expansionary monetary policy, amid concerns over sharp currency depreciation and prospective inflation, unnecessarily compromised economic recovery. Those worries dominated economic policy decisionmaking, and pointed once again to risks ...
Emergence of Rupee Denominated Bonds as a Globally Investable Asset Class
INDIA · Report · 13 Sep 2013
Executive SummaryInvestment into rupee denominated debt in India has faced a cumbersome auction mechanism, in which a foreign investor must first buy the right to buy government bonds. This auction mechanism was eliminated on September 13 for government bonds. It had been eliminated for corporate...
Labor and Credit Markets Do Not Favor Consumption
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Sep 2013
Last week the data for August on the labor and credit markets were announced. The indications on both counts are that the growth of consumption will continue being lethargic. In August the unemployment rate fell to 5.3% in the seasonally adjusted series, but this does not mean the job market is g...
Unchanged Monetary Policy Stance
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 12 Sep 2013
Amidst greater financial market volatility and fund outflows from emerging markets, the Monetary Board of the BSP kept its overnight and special deposit account rates unchanged today. The decision to maintain the overnight borrowing and lending rates at 3.5% and 5.5%, respectively and the SDA ra...
Retail Sales: Better Growth Than Expected
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Sep 2013
Real retail sales in July grew 1.9% in the restricted sense and 0.6% in the augmented concept, which includes cars and construction materials (Graph 1). The respective variations over the past 12 months were 6.0% and 3.7%. One of the reasons for the surprising result was the strong sales of furni...
Mexico's Expected Fiscal Reform
MEXICO · Report · 12 Sep 2013
Executive Summary The most significant news last week included the surprising rate cut announced by Mexico’s central bank on Friday. Banco de Mexico lowered its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%, the lowest level since the key rate was introduced in early 2008. The last time the ...
Dilma’s Approval Rating Remains Stable
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Sep 2013
On Tuesday, September 10, CNT/MDA released a new poll on the approval rating of the Dilma Rousseff administration, conducted between August 31 and September 4. Approval of her government increased from 31.1% to 38.1% (7 percentage points). The CNT poll shows that the president’s popularity has st...
Peace for Another Time?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 Sep 2013
In our Quarterly Report ("In a good place," Aug.. 8, 2013), we said that "bringing the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) fully into the fold" is a key activity for meeting a tight timetable for the peace process in Mindanao and the creation of a Bangsamoro political entity before the end of ...
The Current Account Deficit Deteriorated in the Second Quarter of 2013
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 10 Sep 2013
Figures released today by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) show that the current account balance deteriorated in the second quarter of 2013 (Q2 2013). The deficit on the current account increased from R190.9 billion in Q1 2013 to R216.2 billion in Q2 2013, partly due to weak export growth. A...
Government, stocks drive Q2 growth
TURKEY · Report · 10 Sep 2013
Today’s Q2 GDP growth came in at 4.4%, y/y, which was higher than the consensus forecast of some 3.5%, and our even softer estimate of 2.5%. Growth was driven by private consumption, government spending (notably investment) and inventory build-up, all of which turned out fairly stronger than our ...
A Note on PKK and Gezi Parki Demonstrations
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Sep 2013
PKK suspended the withdrawal of its guerilla force from Turkey, accusing AKP of planning a war on Kurds. Essentially, the Peace Process is dead. AKP’s much-advertised reform package is delayed and is unlikely to satisfy even the minimum of Kurdish demands. I don't expect a return to insurgency u...