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Q4 2013 GDP Recovery Fails to Lift Annual Outcome
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Feb 2014

Inflation adjusted (real) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by a quarterly, seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.8% in the last quarter of 2013. The outcome added 3.1 percentage points to the preceding quarter’s muted rate (see Graph 1). Graph 1 Quarterly Inflation-adjusted GDP growth ra...

Political Reform before Holy Week, Energy Reform in Late April
MEXICO · Report · 25 Feb 2014

Executive Summary There is some lingering uncertainty over the order in which Congress intends to handle secondary legislation related to the constitutional amendments passed last year. Those dealing with political and electoral law will be addressed first, with energy and telecommunications refo...

Optimism and Challenges
UKRAINE · Report · 25 Feb 2014

Executive Summary After two months of peaceful protests and a month of deadly attacks that left 100 protestors dead, the Yanukovych dictatorship has collapsed. The day after agreeing to limit his authority, the president fled Kyiv.But the story is far from over. Viktor Yanukovych is refusing to r...

March Madness started early
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Feb 2014

In our weekly we warned the investors: “Cosmo loves to kill a good buzz, so he warns all readers that the March Madness is about to start. March Madness is a very ugly and downright dirty campaign by all actors in Turkey to discredit and undermine their rivals using Machiavellian means to win the...

New Head of the Central bank appointed – no changes in policies anticipated
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 Feb 2014

Yesterday Verkhovna Rada appointed new Head of the Central bank, Stepan Kubiv. He was a head of mid-level local commercial bank for many years. But the main reason for his appointment was his active participation in Maidan events. Bankers are optimistic about this appointment anticipating better ...

A Bath of Humility for the official Alianza Pais
ECUADOR · In Brief · 24 Feb 2014

Last Sunday 23d, Ecuadorians went to the polls for the 10th time since 2007 to elect sectional authorities. Every time, the President and his movement emerged victorious from these elections and public consultations. However, this last time is quite different. Quito, Guayaquil, and Cuenca and 16 ...

Vargas-Lleras is President Santos' vicepresidential formula for May elections
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 24 Feb 2014

President Santos has just announced that Germán Vargas-Lleras, his former minister of politics (2010-2012) and housing (2012-2013), will be his vice-presidential candidate for next May elections. Even though the announcement does not come as a surprise, it helps Mr. Santos' intentions in more way...

The Announcement of the Primary Surplus Target
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Feb 2014

The announcement of the primary surplus target was greeted by the market with an appreciation of the real and a downward shift of the entire yield curve – the short and long ends (Graph 1). Thus it was a positive reaction. In reality, the real was not the only emerging market currency to get stro...

Early president elections appointed for May 25
UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 Feb 2014

Parliament with constitutional majority (328 votes) voted in removal of Yanukovitch. In light of recent president absenteesm (he withdrew from performing his duties) the parliament decided to remove Yanukovitch from his post. Early president elections were apponited for May 25.

Yanukovitch escapes Kyiv
UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 Feb 2014

According to activists’ reports Yanukovitch escaped Kyiv and possibly Ukraine. Madian forces took under control government block and president office – no police forces at the downtown of the city. The Yanukovitch jet was suspected to fly to the eastern city Kharkiv (one of the most Russia-suppor...

Parliament has changed constitution, dismissed minister of interior and opened way for Tymoshenko release
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Feb 2014

It looks like Yanukovitch was quite serious on recent concessions. Just for few hours the parliament voted in return to Constitution 2004 (limited presidential authorities), dismissed minister of interior Vitaliy Zakharchenko (rumors say he’s already escaped the country) and voted in decriminaliz...

Investment: Better Late than Never
MEXICO · Report · 21 Feb 2014

Two weeks ago the relationship between investment and growth was analyzed here.There were still some aspects to be developed. Within this context one month ago, the Federal Government made a decision of great importance for public, private, and joint investments.For the first time in decades, the...

A Stronger Bottom Line
INDONESIA · Report · 21 Feb 2014

Executive Summary A cascade of good news in February firmed recent optimism. The first report was about inflation, suggesting that price rises were moderating. This was especially happy news, given Indonesia’s sensitivity to weather-prone inflation, as the country’s geographic position and arc...

Political Earthquake
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 Feb 2014

The Venezuelan political puzzle, shaken by widespread protests since early February, is slowly starting to come together again even though some parts don’t fit together yet. Leopoldo López’s image as opposition leader has strengthened. He turned himself in on February 18, as promised, in a massiv...

Yanukovitch agreed for early elections and for constitutional changes, president office
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Feb 2014

According to official web-site Yanukovitch agreed for early elections (in December), for constitutional change (more authorities to parliament) and for creation of coalition government. In fact, this decision will not make people at Maidan happy after yesterday bloodshed but it could reduce tensi...

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