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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

New Hurdles for Reforms
MEXICO · Report · 25 Mar 2014

Executive Summary The road to structural reforms just keeps getting longer and bumpier. The administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto had promised to hand lawmakers its bills for the secondary laws on telecommunications and energy reform by early February, but with just over a month left in ...

CORRECTED - Sicad II started at last. No surprises.
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 24 Mar 2014

In line with Rafael Ramírez’s unofficial announcements, the average price of the dollar in Sicad II in its first day of operations was 51.86 Bs/$, as BCV reported at 6:00 PM. No information was given on trading volume. However, we believe volume today was low. Participants and banks have had litt...

Inflation: Uptick Prevents Ending the Tightening Cycle
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Mar 2014

Until recently the signals from the Central Bank were that since inflation was decelerating, the end of the monetary tightening cycle was nearing. But the period of decelerating inflation was short lived. The resistance of some free prices, especially of services, combined with the sharp rise of ...

Slowdown Against Government Target
CHINA · Report · 24 Mar 2014

Executive Summary People’s Bank of China Governor Xiaochuan Zhou announced in a March 11th press conference that deposit interest rates would likely be “liberalized” in one or two years. Four days later, the Bank announced on its website that the daily trading band for the RMB would broaden to...

Democracy or Monarchy?
ECUADOR · Report · 24 Mar 2014

Executive SummaryThe president’s Alianza Pais suffered a major political setback in the February 23rd local elections, losing control of nearly all key municipalities. Rafael Correa recognized the sectarianism of some party members, and expressed disappointment over his party’s apparent lack of p...

Growth Got Better And Inflation Decelerated
INDIA · Report · 24 Mar 2014

Executive Summary The report of 2 December 2013 had suggested that in Q4 2013 there would be export buoyancy, reduced interest payments by firms, and hence improved performance of large firms. All three predictions have been borne out by the Q4 data. There is some easing of tradeables inflation, ...

Political Insights: Week of March 24
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Mar 2014

On Tuesday, the opposition discusses the creation of a Parliamentary Investigative Committee to investigate the Petrobras purchase of a refinery in Texas. The House may vote on the Internet Framework Law.A Joint Congressional Committee may vote on the provisional measure that deals with taxation ...

Weekly Tracker: March 23-29
TURKEY · Report · 23 Mar 2014

Executive Summary Turkey’s Twitter ban may be followed up by new restrictions on access to YouTube or even Google. The question is why Erdogan would risk so much for very little political gain. Is Internet costing him the elections? We expect great drama and hopefully no major tragedy in the fina...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Mar 2014

Desire for change challenges Dilma’s lead On Thursday evening, March 20, Ibope released a presidential voting intention poll. The poll, conducted on March 13-17, presented practically the same results as the previous poll from November. However, even though President Dilma has a comfortable lead ...

Sweet bird of mine
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Mar 2014

Sometimes one sentence- more than many scholarly articles- sums up the political situation in a country. As of today, for Turkey, that sentence has become “Twitter is banned”. Less than 24 hours after Erdogan promised in a vocal rage the ban “the twitter and like”, courts obliged, granting Turkey...

Suddenly Hawkish
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 20 Mar 2014

The BSP took its cue from the US Fed and signalled today a prospective rate hike when the Monetary Board meets next week. The Fed earlier indicated that it may move forward the timetable for ending its stimulus program, with markets projecting a rate hike as early as April 2015 (from July previou...

2014 Outlook Grows Cloudy
MEXICO · Report · 20 Mar 2014

Executive Summary Now that the first phase of the structural reform process is complete, attention has shifted back toward more immediate concerns, especially the extent to which the economy is likely to grow in 2014. In previous issues of Weekly Trends: Mexico Economy we have argued that GDP gro...

In a Wait-and-See Mode, Indefinitely
TURKEY · Report · 18 Mar 2014

As expected, there was no surprise in today’s Monetary Policy Meeting decision, which left all interest rates unchanged: weekly repo at 10% and the O/N band at 8%-12 (Graph 1). In terms of the statement’s content, there was also not much new, with the main emphasis of the statement remaining on i...

Sicad II: Relief, No Solution
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Mar 2014

Sicad II will begin operating soon under Foreign Exchange Agreement (CC) 27[1]. Individuals and companies will be able to buy and sell foreign currency and dollar-denominated securities at a price that will reflect market conditions and, more importantly, intervention by BCV and Pdvsa. Sicad II w...

President Wows the Public
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 18 Mar 2014

Executive Summary President Danilo Medina scored more points with his February 27th mandatory speech to Congress. The respected polling firm Newlink Research found that87% of the public was either very satisfied (65%) or somewhat satisfied (22%) with his presentation, while just 13% of respondent...

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