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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Consumers' economic health to go under the microscope
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 11 Apr 2014

Pointers from key sections of the production side of the South African economy (i.e. manufacturing and mining) have indicated a weakening momentum in activity or worse (see our Special Report 11 April 2014). Next week, Statistics South Africa will publish retail sales figures for February 2014 on...

After the Election: Political Stability, Healthy Macro Balances & Low Growth
HUNGARY · Forecast · 11 Apr 2014

Executive Summary In our first Quarterly Report on Hungary, we deal with the results and the likely impact of the election held last Sunday, and a macro forecast running through end-2016. On the latter, we provide readers with an explanation of the direction, the movers and the dynamics of expect...

Symptoms of A Frail Recovery
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 11 Apr 2014

The performance of mining and manufacturing disappointed in February 2014. Looking ahead, risks to these sectors are tilted to the downside, with adverse consequences for an economic recovery in 2014. Contraction in total mining production – by almost 5% y/y in February 2014 (see Graph 1) – may s...

Challenging Goliath
PHILIPPINES · Report · 11 Apr 2014

Executive Summary Philippine-China relations sank to a new low last week following the Philippines’ filing of a memorial or pleading before a United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea arbitral tribunal. The memorial was in connection with the arbitration case it initiated against China earl...

Parliament approves procurements law - another step to the IMF funds
UKRAINE · In Brief · 11 Apr 2014

Yesterday parliament finally approved updated law on public procurements. The legislation significantly tightens rules for spending public funds, introduces more transparency not only for budget but also for state enterprises. Effectively, the law closes all major loopholes for budget funds squee...

Appreciating Exchange Rate And Inflation: What Can Be Expected?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Apr 2014

Executive SummaryThe Central Bank has continued selling foreign exchange swaps even since the real started appreciating. What is the aim of this action? One possibility is that, lacking the freedom to raise the interest rate sufficiently because the government does not want any further decelerati...

Confidence Matters
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 09 Apr 2014

Executive Summary One quarter into 2014, it appears that a blend of domestic and global ingredients will decide the course of South Africa’s economic performance going forward. Confidence at home is by and large low. On the whole, we expect a lackluster economic performance as consumption spendin...

There Goes Plan B
PERU · Report · 08 Apr 2014

Executive Summary First lady Nadine Heredia has rapidly metamorphosed from the government’s main political asset into its biggest liability. Her involvement in the abrupt dismissal of Prime Minister Cesar Villanueva was so obvious, and Villanueva’s sacking so crude, that Heredia drew heavy critic...

Political Insights: Week of April 8
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Apr 2014

The allegations involving Petrobras continue to reverberate in Congress. The decision by Senate President Renan Calheiros to expand the scope of the investigation involving the governments of the PSDB and PSB will be analyzed by the Constitution and Justice Committee and the floor. Regarding the ...

Education: An Uphill Battle
MEXICO · Report · 08 Apr 2014

Executive Summary The ratification early last year of a constitutional reform on education was the Pact for Mexico’s first major success, but implementing it is proving to be a daunting task. With the support of all three major political parties, the reform cleared the way for the State to reclai...

The Remittance Tide Turns Anew
MEXICO · Report · 08 Apr 2014

Executive Summary Household remittance inflows to Mexico totaled US$1.68 billion in February 2014, a 5.7% increase year over year. With February’s report, remittances have risen above year earlier levels for three months straight.This is good news for the more than 1.3 million people receiving re...

Hungary Voted for Continuity
HUNGARY · Report · 07 Apr 2014

Fidesz-KDNP Won a Constitutional Majority Again According to preliminary results released by the National Electoral Committee, the incumbent governing alliance Fidesz-KDNP won the regular four-yearly election held in the unicameral National Assembly yesterday (April 6). The winner acquired 133 ou...

Luis Guillermo Solis Elected President of Costa Rica
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 07 Apr 2014

Luis Guillermo Solis of the opposition Citizens Action Party (PAC) won a landslide victory over Johnny Araya of the official National Liberation Party in Sunday´s runoff election. Solis obtained nearly 78% of the valid vote, whereas Araya, who virtually withdrew from the race a month ago, receive...

The Weak Performance Of The Trade Balance
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Apr 2014

There are still no signs of recovery of the trade balance, even though the real exchange rate is currently 14% weaker than it was a year ago. The first quarter closed with a deficit of US$ 6 billion, which is the biggest quarterly deficit in the history of the series, dating to 1959. In the 12 mo...

Monetary Policy in an Election Year
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Apr 2014

Executive Summary The administration is faced with the unsavory prospect of an election year with weak economic growth combined with high inflation, with virtually no ammunition (fiscal or monetary) to improve matters in the short run. In 2011 and 2012 it pushed the interest rate substantially be...

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