GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

In the House of Representatives, we highlight the vote on the bill to change the calculation of states’ debt. On Wednesday, Finance Minister Guido Mantega, speaks at the House of Representatives on government taxation. On Thursday, the Central Bank releases the minutes of the most recent Copom me...

Sowing Seeds of Future Discontent

MEXICO · Report · 14 Oct 2013

Executive Summary The demonstrations that held the Mexican capital in their grip for the better part of the past two months have finally died down, but for reasons that could contribute to future strife. The government wielded the proverbial political stick in mid September to drive public school...

Has the Central Bank Increased its Degrees of Freedom?

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Oct 2013

At the COPOM meeting last week the Central Bank decided to raise the SELIC rate by 50 basis points, to 9.50%. This move had already been widely expected by the market, but the repetition of basically the same communiqué as issued after the previous meetings that were followed by 50-point increase...

In Janet, We Trust

TURKEY · Forecast · 13 Oct 2013

Executive SummaryAfter a difficult and volatile summer, Turkish assets were among the best beneficiaries of the tapering delays and the nomination of Janet Yellen to head the Federal Reserve, but viewing this respite as permanent, would be a mistake, in our view. With almost all the low-hanging f...

Private Sector Likely to Cushion Investment Fall

PANAMA · Forecast · 11 Oct 2013

Executive SummaryThe domestic economy is likely to have less impact on growth from 2013-2015, mainly due to the end of the government’s major investment plan, and the completion of Panama Canal expansion. But execution of major private investments in mining, energy, tourism, logistics and low and...

IPCA: End of a Benign Period

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Oct 2013

In September the IPCA rose 0.35%, greater than the increase of the IPCA-15 for that month (0.27%). With this, inflation over the preceding 12 months accumulated a variation of 5.86% (Graph 1). The IPCA for September should mark the end of a cycle of about four months of relatively benign monthly ...

MTP 2014-16: Cozy But Unlikely

TURKEY · Report · 09 Oct 2013

The authorities’ Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2014-16 was announced yesterday. The revisions made to the three main macro aggregates and our quick thoughts on them are summarized below. Table 1 below provides the key macro indicators for the current and previous MTPs, while annex tables (1-4) pr...

MTP 2014-16: And Then, a Miracle Happens…

TURKEY · In Brief · 08 Oct 2013

The Medium-Term Program for 2014-16 was announced today, somewhat earlier than expected. The government revised down the growth rate for this year to 3.6% and for the next year to 4%, from previous MTP’s 4% and 5%, respectively. Inflation is forecasted to end the year at 6.8%, vs. the 5.3% in t...

Passing a Point of Inflection

MEXICO · Report · 08 Oct 2013

Economic Panorama Last week we discussed the factors that have most contributed to the way in which the Mexican economy began to get bogged down during the first half of the year. In this edition we turn our attention to updated indicators – such as Mexico’s monthly GDP proxy (Index of Global Eco...

Sweeten the Pot

MEXICO · Report · 07 Oct 2013

Executive Summary Last week GEA-ISA published the results of its most recent quarterly survey of voter opinion, which on this occasion focused on issues related to proposed fiscal and energy reforms. The public finds little it agrees with in the structural reform proposals offered to date, with c...

Political Insights: Week of October 7

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Oct 2013

In the economy, two highlights: the Central Bank announces its decision on the interest rate, and the IBGE releases inflation figures for September. In the Senate, we highlight the resumed discussions on the unification of ICMS and state debt, as well as the possible vote, in the Constitution and...

Improved Trade Balance in September: Effect of the Real Exchange Rate Still Small

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Oct 2013

Brazil’s trade balance in September was in surplus by US$ 2.1 billion, indicating recovery. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the annualized surplus of US$ 16.4 billion is the largest since the end of last year (Graph 1). However, this result cannot be attributed to the weaker real exchange rate. G...

Weekly Tracker: October 6-12

TURKEY · Report · 06 Oct 2013

Executive Summary On the international front, there is only a remote hope of progress in the Iran vs. P5+1 negotiations, or in Syria, while Iraq is in tenterhooks. As regional conflicts spread out, contagion to Turkey through terror and ethnic strife may become more apparent. Kurds rejected the R...

Stability Reaffirmed

CIS POLITICS · Report · 04 Oct 2013

Sergei Sobyanin won the Moscow Mayor’s election but with a small voter turnout, and voter support for himself only marginally higher than 50%. That may cause his position in the elite hierarchy to become less prominent. His main opponent, Alexey Navalny, won more than a quarter of the vote, despi...

Stability Reaffirmed

CIS POLITICS · Report · 04 Oct 2013

Sergei Sobyanin won the Moscow Mayor’s election but ensured a small voter turnout and voter support for himself only marginally higher than 50%. That may make his position in the elite hierarchy become less prominent. His main opponent Alexey Navalny won over a quarter of all votes despite having...