GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Executive Summary The government of President Enrique Peña Nieto unveiled its budget proposals for 2014 along with closely related pieces of legislation that imply major changes to tax and fiscal policy while greatly expanding social security coverage. The stated purpose of such a reform would be...

Clearing Another Hurdle

MEXICO · Report · 18 Sep 2013

Executive Summary In the run-up to the official Mexican Independence Day Celebrations, which traditionally center on Mexico City’s main square, the government reached an agreement with the main organization of teachers to dismantle the protest encampment they have maintained for many weeks in the...

An uneventful MPC, as expected

TURKEY · Report · 17 Sep 2013

As expected, the MPC kept all rates unchanged today (see graph), while its assessment of the economy (e.g., mild recovery in domestic demand, a contained CAD thanks to current policy framework) was also broadly unchanged. The Bank chose not to alter the F/X ratios (that would help to transfer som...

Political Insights

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Sep 2013

An intense week of political negotiation ahead: The National Congress analyzes President Dilma’s vetoes, with the government’s effort focused on sustaining the veto on the end of the 10% fine on the FGTS in case of unfair dismissal. The STF decides on the possibility of a new trial for 12 of the ...

Thanks, Mr. President

PERU · Report · 16 Sep 2013

Executive Summary President Ollanta Humala’s announcement that “the crisis has arrived” depressed confidence in Peru—according to a recent poll, 61% of Peruvians think the country is already in economic crisis. So the government’s main near-term task is to avoid hitting the brakes too hard. Unfor...

Noise in the Economic Activity Indicators

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Sep 2013

The extreme volatility of the data lately has been hampering the task of gauging the economic activity trend. In previous reports we have already indicated this has been happening with the figures on industrial production, where the monthly variations in recent months have been alternating betwee...

All Eyes on the Fed and the SARB

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 16 Sep 2013

This week the Federal Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve Bank meets to discuss the conduct of monetary policy. Expectations are that an announcement will be made concerning the timing and extent of the reduction of the stimulus program, also known as “quantitative easing”.Against thi...

Weekly Tracker: September 15-21

TURKEY · Report · 15 Sep 2013

Executive Summary An American military intervention in Syria is off the table, which leaves Ankara out in the cold. The milestone event in the Kurdish Peace Process is the announcement of the Reform Package during the coming week. Will PM Erdogan bite the electoral bullet and give Kurds what they...

Overkill

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 14 Sep 2013

Executive Summary The Central Bank’s abrupt reversal of its expansionary monetary policy, amid concerns over sharp currency depreciation and prospective inflation, unnecessarily compromised economic recovery. Those worries dominated economic policy decisionmaking, and pointed once again to risks ...

Emergence of Rupee Denominated Bonds as a Globally Investable Asset Class

INDIA · Report · 13 Sep 2013

Executive SummaryInvestment into rupee denominated debt in India has faced a cumbersome auction mechanism, in which a foreign investor must first buy the right to buy government bonds. This auction mechanism was eliminated on September 13 for government bonds. It had been eliminated for corporate...

Labor and Credit Markets Do Not Favor Consumption

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Sep 2013

Last week the data for August on the labor and credit markets were announced. The indications on both counts are that the growth of consumption will continue being lethargic. In August the unemployment rate fell to 5.3% in the seasonally adjusted series, but this does not mean the job market is g...

Retail Sales: Better Growth Than Expected

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Sep 2013

Real retail sales in July grew 1.9% in the restricted sense and 0.6% in the augmented concept, which includes cars and construction materials (Graph 1). The respective variations over the past 12 months were 6.0% and 3.7%. One of the reasons for the surprising result was the strong sales of furni...

Mexico's Expected Fiscal Reform

MEXICO · Report · 12 Sep 2013

Executive Summary The most significant news last week included the surprising rate cut announced by Mexico’s central bank on Friday. Banco de Mexico lowered its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%, the lowest level since the key rate was introduced in early 2008. The last time the ...

Dilma’s Approval Rating Remains Stable

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Sep 2013

On Tuesday, September 10, CNT/MDA released a new poll on the approval rating of the Dilma Rousseff administration, conducted between August 31 and September 4. Approval of her government increased from 31.1% to 38.1% (7 percentage points). The CNT poll shows that the president’s popularity has st...

Peace for Another Time?

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 Sep 2013

In our Quarterly Report ("In a good place," Aug.. 8, 2013), we said that "bringing the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) fully into the fold" is a key activity for meeting a tight timetable for the peace process in Mindanao and the creation of a Bangsamoro political entity before the end of ...