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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Smell of the Rose
TURKEY · Report · 04 Apr 2014

Executive Summary“Sometimes victory is not about how well you have performed, but how poorly your rival did”—Cosmic StrategistFive days after the local elections, Turkey’s electoral supervisor, the High Election Council (HEC) is yet to announce the official results. We have two different vote tal...

Russia Enlargement
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 04 Apr 2014

Russia has made a dramatic foreign policy turn, disregarding all previously valued compromises with the West, by including the Crimean peninsula in the Russian Federation despite the objections of the Ukrainian leadership, the EU and the US. This will also impact Russia’s relations with Asia as i...

Lower Inflation
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Apr 2014

Philippine headline inflation slid further to 3.9% in March, bucking market expectations of a slight pickup to 4.2%. This serves to anchor inflation expectations further and gives local monetary authorities more room to manage its exit from loose policy settings. Given relatively tame inflation n...

Budget revenues surged 24.1% y/y in March on VAT reimbursement delay
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Apr 2014

State collections in March suddenly surged up 24.1% y/y, the Treasury reported on April 3rd. In general, for the first quarter central budget revenues were reported 5.8% more than a year ago. At the same time the Treasury registered 35% decline in VAT reimbursement for the first three months. Tho...

Inflation In, Easing Out
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2014

March CPI inflation came in at a higher than expected 1.1%, which meant an increase in the 12-month rate to 8.4% from about 8% a month earlier, as PPI inflation also remained rather elevated (Table 1; Graph 1). This time, food prices are not to blame, with the negative surprise coming from core i...

Negative on Balance
MEXICO · Report · 02 Apr 2014

Executive SummaryMarch economic data was mostly negative. Even as the government accelerated spending programs, and offered to expand its mortgage lending programs to help revive a deeply depressed housing industry, there was further evidence that the economy, especially in the domestic sectors, ...

Industrial Production: Another Weak Month
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Apr 2014

Industrial output in February grew 0.4%, after climbing 3.8% in January, resulting in growth over the previous 12 months of 5% (Graph 1). Because the Carnival holiday fell in February in 2013 and in March this year, February 2014 had two more working days than the year before, so the base for com...

Girding for War
UKRAINE · Forecast · 01 Apr 2014

Executive Summary In the face of foreign intervention, Ukraine has united. Over the past few months Ukrainian society has changed dramatically: Ukrainians have realized their own strength and potential, and are marshalling it to confront a clear external enemy. And Ukrainian authorities command e...

Quarterly Investment Outlook
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Apr 2014

Executive Summary In this new publication, we provide a macroeconomic outlook and highlight projects the government plans to develop over the coming years. We track planned government expenditure as well as progress in the execution of these plans. In many cases, the government is seeking partner...

Political Insights: Week of March 31
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Mar 2014

This week, the Petrobras CPI (Parliamentary Investigative Committee) will be the main focus in the Legislative. In the Senate, the opposition is pressuring Renan Calheiros to read the request for the creation of the CPI. The opposition is also trying to create a Joint Committee, made up of congre...

Three Cheers for Jokowi
INDONESIA · Report · 31 Mar 2014

Executive Summary Optimism breeds optimism. That’s an apt analysis of events in Indonesia so far this year. Good news in January generated further optimism, which ultimately strengthened the currency. At this writing, the rupiah has strengthened to about Rp. 11,400, from Rp. 12,300 earlier in ...

On Growth and Trade Data
TURKEY · Report · 31 Mar 2014

GDP: Headline solid, momentum slowing, quality low… GDP growth in Q4 was a somewhat stronger than expected 4.4%, y/y, though data pointed to a relative slowdown in q/q terms, to 0.5% (SAAR: 2%) from 0.8% a quarter earlier, and an even stronger near-2% pace during the first half of the year (Table...

Paradoxes and Perspectives
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Mar 2014

There are two paradoxes in the Brazilian economy’s recent behavior. First, although in recent weeks the perspectives have worsened for inflation, the current account deficit and GDP growth, the Ibovespa and real have both been appreciating (the exchange rate now is below R$2.30/US$). Second, the ...

Elections: Reality and Perception
TURKEY · Report · 31 Mar 2014

It is 17:00 in Turkey and the High Election Council is yet to announce even the preliminary results of the local elections. I still get two vote counts. In the first one, AKP scores 45.8%, compared to CHP’s 28%.The other count shows AKP at 43.3% and CHP at 26.7%.Note that the differences in betwe...

Turkish elections—First Update: AKP won, but others did not lose
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 Mar 2014

It is 6 am in Turkey and at the end of a sleepless night, I still have very little to report except that AKP has won, but CHP, MHP and BDP-HDP are grinning all the way home. From the moment the High Election Council lifted the embargo on reporting election results, the two authorized data dissemi...

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