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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A Boost from Abroad
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Jan 2015

Executive Summary The global economy will boost Central American economies this year.This is, first, because of the expected behavior of the U.S. economy, the most important export market for the region, and the main source of private remittances for El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. The secon...

Hawkish Till February 4th
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Jan 2015

Today Governor Basci presented the first Inflation Report of the year. This year's yearend inflation estimate was revised down by 0.6 pps on the back of lower oil prices, down to 5.5% (midpoint). The key highlight of the meeting however was what the Governor said during the Q&A session: if Januar...

Oil+ECB=Turkey Decouples?
TURKEY · Forecast · 26 Jan 2015

Executive Summary After a volatile year, Turkey has had a good start into 2015, the main driver being a collapsing oil price. Indeed, there is little doubt that a sharply lower oil price, bolstered by ECB tailwinds, is a great boon for Turkey’s macro balances and offers a cyclical opportunity for...

Under New Management
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Jan 2015

Executive Summary The resounding failure of the economic policy practiced between 2011 and 2014 culminated in the replacement of Guido Mantega by Joaquim Levy as finance minister, and prompted an about-face in economic policy. The diagnosis has changed and the new macroeconomic policy orientat...

Week of January 26
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jan 2015

Politically, this will be an intense week.President Dilma Rousseff meets with her ministerial team.She will ask for an end to public disagreements and support for the fiscal effort.Unions will strike nationally to revoke changes made to labor and social security rights.The race for the presidenci...

Where is the Real Headed?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Jan 2015

In the past several days the real has appreciated, interrupting a lengthy period of gradual weakening. At the start of the year, the exchange rate was fluctuating in the neighborhood of R$ 2.70/US$, but recently it has gotten stronger, closing last week at R$2.58/US$. The real is one of the curre...

Weekly Tracker: January 25-31
TURKEY · Report · 25 Jan 2015

Executive Summary A car bomb exploded at the gates of the hotel in Mogadishu where the Turkish delegation was staying, but we are not sure this was a message to Erdogan. For the time being, fundamentalist terror is fortunately staying away from Turkey. The impeachment vote of four ex-ministers mu...

Devaluation 2015: Act Two
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 23 Jan 2015

Maduro’s announcements on 21 January 2015 devalue the bolivar by morphing the exchange rate regime, keeping multiple exchange rates, forex controls and rationing. Arbitrage and corruption will continue marring the system. President Maduro said this regime is "temporary”. The price of the dollar r...

Dominican Rep government placed Sovereign Bonds for USD 2.5 bn
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 22 Jan 2015

The government of the Dominican Republic announced that it placed Sovereign Bonds for USD 2.5 bn. USD 1 bn worth of bonds were placed with 10 years maturity at an interest rate of 5.5%, and USD 1.5 bn were placed with 30 years maturity at an interest rate of 6.85%. Average maturity of the two lot...

Dilma’s Second Term
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jan 2015

Fiscal Adjustment Measures adopted by the Economy Team The following is a summary table with the fiscal measures adopted by President Dilma’s economy team. Of the 11 announced acts, three were still not published in the official gazette and six still depend on legislative approval.Date Topic What...

Waiting for the Sun
CHILE · Report · 21 Jan 2015

Executive Summary Time and again, economists have revised down expected growth for 2015, this time, from 2.7% in December to 2.6% in January (Central Bank's Survey of Economists). The Imacec (monthly index of economic activity) expanded a meager 1.3% in the 12 months to November, while the yoy...

Rough Road Ahead
COLOMBIA · Report · 21 Jan 2015

Executive Summary This year will be rough, and next year even rougher. While the full impact of plummeting oil prices will only hit fiscal accounts next year, the government faces huge challenges now in trying to calm investors’ jitters, and to restore confidence. This will involve showing how th...

Economics: Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jan 2015

Executive Summary The international oil market has continued to experience an excess supply of crude, and except in the United States, weak demand through the first weeks of 2015. As a result, the prices of all varieties of crude have been plummeting. As we have mentioned in previous issues of We...

Politics: Rocky Start to 2015 Campaign
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jan 2015

Executive Summary Last week produced numerous reminders of the internal party divisions plaguing the opposition. The center-right PAN rebuffed the request of Margarita Zavala to run for Congress, prompting the wife of ex Mexican President Felipe Calderón and former member of Congress to announce ...

Confidence in the Midst of an Airline Disaster
INDONESIA · Report · 21 Jan 2015

Executive Summary Three days before the new year 2015, an Indonesian-Malaysian aircraft lost contact halfway between Surabaya, Indonesia’s second largest city, and Singapore, a two-hour flight. AirAsia is a low-cost airline owned by Tony Fernandes, a successful Malaysian airline businessman wh...

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