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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Inflation: Little Room to Absorb Shocks
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Mar 2014

Inflation had been decelerating, declining from 6.7% in June 2013 to 5.6% in January 2014, but the 0.69% increase of the IPCA in February ended this more favorable period, putting the rate over the past 12 months at 5.7%. The tendency from now on is for oscillation around the upper bound of the t...

Santos and Peñalosa to the run-off
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 17 Mar 2014 · 7 responses

Datexco published a new poll on March 16th, showing again that President Santos is expected to get the most votes in the May 25th presidential election (25.5%), but not enough to avoid a run-off three weeks later. However, two other results are surprising. The first one is that Enrique Peñalosa s...

The Economy in 2014: Projections And Risks
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 17 Mar 2014

Executive Summary A combination of wishful thinking and diagnostic mistakes has put the government in a situation, in an election year, of weak economic growth and high inflation. The outlook for 2014 is weaker GDP growth than last year, of only 1.5%, and inflation rising to around 6.3% at year-e...

Political Insights: Week of March 17
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Mar 2014

The week begins with the new ministers’ taking office. The government will face an important test this week in its crisis with the allied base. Congress will analyze 12 presidential vetoes, among them the veto of the bill that establishes the criteria for the creation, incorporation, merger and d...

​“Referendum” tells 'yes' to Russia. And now the real fight to start.
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Mar 2014

No surprises, official exit-poll (only one which was allowed) reported almost unanimous (93%) support to merging with Russia. The Crimean officials report 75% participation rate while leader of Crimean Tatars, Mustafa Jamilev reports that real participation rate does not exceed 30%. Observers rep...

Weekly Tracker: March 16-22
TURKEY · Report · 16 Mar 2014

Executive Summary By taunting his detractors even at their saddest moments, PM Erdogan is inviting a Gezi-II after the March local elections. Meanwhile, the KCK, the pro-secessionist Kurdish umbrella organization, announced that it would no longer negotiate with AKP to settle the Kurdish problem....

The Economic Consequences of a Diplomatic War: Panama against Venezuela
PANAMA · Report · 13 Mar 2014

The war scenario was the Organization of American States (OEA, in Spanish), the ever-futile forum of thirty-five hemispheric countries: (“all of us minus Cuba” as someone said). The date: February 25. The trigger event: a proposal by OEA’s Panamanian Ambassador to hold special sessions to address...

Cry Wolf
PHILIPPINES · Report · 13 Mar 2014

In this slow news period, a recent analyst report caught our eye with the title "Artificial Strength in the Current Account?" The report compared Philippine trade figures against counterpart statistics reported by some of the country's major trading partners and noted huge discrepancies in the im...

Stagflation But No Blow-out
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 13 Mar 2014

Executive Summary Our 2014–2015 central scenarios assume that stagflation leads to social conflict. We expect episodes of turbulence but no widespread blow-out. Inflation accelerates, economic activity weakens, real consumption falls, and oil production is stagnant or slightly down. GDP falls by ...

The Current Account Deficit Eases in Q4 2013
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 12 Mar 2014

According to the quarterly bulletin of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), the current account balance was -R179 bn in Q4 2013 compared to -R216 bn the previous quarter. This translated into a moderated current account deficit as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) in the last quarter...

Dominican Rep to issue USD 1.5 bn in Sovereign Bonds and USD 776 millions in domestic bonds
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 11 Mar 2014

The government sent to Congress a bill which, once approved, will give permission to the Ministry of Finance to issue Sovereign Bonds for up to USD 1.5 bn to be allocated in the international financial market. It also sent a second bill which would give permission to issue domestic bonds for up t...

​Gezi victim’s death stokes Gezi II
TURKEY · In Brief · 11 Mar 2014

Berkin Elvan was 14 years old when he was sent to buy a loaf of bread to the grocery store. He was hit in the head by a police gas canister who were raiding the neighbourhood to weed out Gezi protests in June, 2013. His death on Tuesday after more than 250 days in a coma stoked the biggest sponta...

Industrial Production and Leading Indicator: Weak Growth in the Year
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Mar 2014

Part of the contraction of industrial output in December (-3.7%) was reversed with the rise of 2.9% in January, continuing the recent pattern of extreme volatility of the monthly data (Graph 1). The 12-month rate remained negative and virtually stable (-2.4%, versus -2.5% in December). Based on t...

A Bit More to the Right, Please…
COLOMBIA · Report · 11 Mar 2014

During the last four years, President Santos has been leaning towards the left, either in his support of center-left parties (Liberals and Cambio Radical), or in the peace negotiations with extreme leftist FARC. All this time, popular support for such political inclination was questionable, since...

New Bills: A Source of Concern
MEXICO · Report · 11 Mar 2014

Executive Summary Last week Mexico’s federal government announced a credit program designed to help revive the homebuilding industry. The federal agencies in charge of facilitating credit to the housing sector (such as Infonavit, Fovisste, and Fonhapo, among others), would expand by 18% the credi...

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