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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

It’s a war
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Mar 2014

Putin requested permission of the parliament to start military intervention. Effectively, this statement is equivalent to official announcement of war to Ukraine. Currently, we observe simultaneous large-scale destabilization at the southeast. In many cities pro-Russian forces organized large and...

Crimean situation review: Putin’s provocations did not work so far
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Feb 2014

Moscow is trying to launch Abkhazian scenario for Ukraine. After victory of Maidan it is critical for Vladimir Putin to take some revenge on Ukraine. Annexation of Crimea looks like his choice for revenge. Disposition in Crimea is very good for this plan: Russian-speaking population, Russian mili...

GUATEMALA: Moderate Growth
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Feb 2014

Executive SummaryThe outlook for the Guatemalan economy 2014-2015 is similar to that of 2013. Real GDP growth is projected at 3.5%-4.0%; inflation will be within the 4% ± 1 p.p. of the Central Bank’s target range; and the exchange rate will stay at 7.90-8.10 quetzals per dollar. Interest rates wi...

Try Again
PERU · Report · 28 Feb 2014

Executive Summary President Ollanta Humala quickly lost the popularity rally he enjoyed in the wake of the favorable Hague ruling on Peru’s maritime border with Chile, after the government mismanaged the PR aspect of a 100% salary hike for top government officials. Humala’s rating tumbled back to...

The Performance of GDP in the Fourth Quarter of 2013
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Feb 2014

The GDP growth of 0.7% in the last quarter of 2013 (Graph 1) came as a surprise: it was above the most optimistic projections. In contrast, GDP contracted in the third quarter by 0.5%. With this, growth in 2013 reached 2.3%. The main surprise was gross fixed capital formation, which instead of th...

Housing Market: Bumpy Ride
CHINA · Report · 28 Feb 2014

Executive Summary Exports and imports both grew faster, up 10.6% and 10% y/y respectively in January. Almost all increases came from commodity trade. We expect the relatively high growth rate in trade to persist, and even to speed up -- especially after May. CPI rose 2.5% y/y in January, fl...

Fiscal Reforms for the Next Government …and the Canal Expansion Project is on Again…
PANAMA · Report · 28 Feb 2014

ACP announced that it had just reached a “conceptual agreement” with GUPC, the main contractor for the Panama Canal expansion project. The key elements of this new accord released on February 28th (for which the final wording is still pending) include five main conditions. The first one (importan...

Good and bad of the fiscal certainty agreement
MEXICO · In Brief · 28 Feb 2014

Today,after a meeting of a special government Committee for a “Prosperous Mexico”, specialized in economic policy and formed by different government ministries, the Secretary of Finance, Luis Videgaray, announced a “Tax Certainty Agreement”. This agreement pursues several goals. Amongst them, the...

Reform program – any luck this time?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Feb 2014

Parliament today approved new Cabinet with Arseniy Yatseniuk as a prime-minister. Also parliament accepted reform program of the new Cabinet. In fact the document (reform program) appeared to be a summary of key actions the authorities plan to do in the nearest future without much details. Among ...

Budgeting Under Stress
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 Feb 2014

Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan presented yesterday a balanced budget despite a lack of space for fiscal maneuvers. His eye was clearly on averting another credit rating downgrade. The Minister spoke the right language in (1) containing expenditure and (2) keeping all welfare expenditure incre...

Escalation in Crimea
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Feb 2014

Some unidentified armed people captured the government and parliament building in Crimea today in the morning. There are also reports that Russian armed forces moved out of their military bases in Crimea (few dozens of Infantry Fighting Machines are reported standing near Simferopol the capital o...

Budgeting Under Stress
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 27 Feb 2014

Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan presented yesterday a balanced budget despite a lack of space for fiscal manoeuvres. His eye was clearly on averting another credit rating downgrade. The Minister spoke the right language in (1) containing expenditure and (2) keeping all welfare expenditure incr...

The Central bank will not intervene at the forex, Head of the Bank said
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Feb 2014

The Central bank will not use its gross foreign reserves to balance forex market, the Head of Central Bank Stepan Kubiv said today. It is not clear whether this statement means the Bank will move to real free float. However, it means that new head of the Bank will not resist devaluation over the ...

Yatsenyuk Nomination for Prime-Minister looks Distrubing
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Feb 2014

Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Batkivshchyna party, was nominated for the prime-minister post today at Maidan. A lot of new names were presented for his Cabinet. Tomorrow the parliament will be voting for this decision. In our opinion, Arseniy Yatsenyuk is not the best choice for this post. He has never been...

Economic growth in Mexico in 2014 is estimated at 3.0%
MEXICO · Report · 25 Feb 2014

Executive Summary Last week Mexican authorities reported that fourth quarter 2013 GDP grew 0.7% year over year, the second weakest quarterly performance last year. As a result, the economy grew 1.1% in full year 2013, just as we at GEA predicted in December and the weakest reading of GDP since th...

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