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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Outlook for 2014
INDIA · Report · 17 Feb 2014

There was a shock to tradeables inflation owing to the INR depreciation in mid-2013, which has subsided. In recent months, food inflation has also subsided. Put together, this is starting to yield some gains in CPI inflation. RBI is trying to establish an inflation targeting monetary policy frame...

Slowing Real Retail Sales Growth
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Feb 2014

Growth of real retail sales decelerated substantially in 2013. In the restricted sense, sales grew 4.3%, just over half the figure in 2012 (8.4%), while in the augmented sense (including cars and construction materials), growth was 3.6%, less than half the rate (8.0%) in 2012 (Graph 1). In this r...

Political Violence: Episode or New Phase?
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Feb 2014

The opposition’s defeat in the December 2013 municipal elections fueled the debate on the path to power in Venezuela among opposition leaders. Some argue that Venezuela can’t endure five more years with a Maduro government while others believe that the next few years should be devoted to building...

Stubborn Inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Feb 2014

Monthly National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) inflation accelerated in January 2014 to 3.3 percent from 2.2 percent in December 2013. The year-on-year rate closed at 56.2 percent (56.1 percent last year). Inflation usually slows in January reflecting seasonal decline in demand and retail sales. Th...

Giddyap!
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 13 Feb 2014

Executive Summary The Philippines entered the Year of the Horse on a slower trot.For now, the local mood seems to have sobered up in the face of heightened financial market volatilities and contagion talk set off by fragilities in certain emerging markets.The fear is that a lack of differentiatio...

FATF decision and the crusade against TUSIAD
TURKEY · In Brief · 11 Feb 2014

FATF decision and the crusade against TUSIAD I wanted to start your business day with two “heads-up's”. First, FATF is meeting today in Paris, with Turkey’s compliance to anti-terror financing legislation being part of the agenda. Secondly, Erdogan’s anger against TUSIAD is picking up speed and v...

Hang on to Your Hope
COLOMBIA · Forecast · 11 Feb 2014

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYConservatives were the last ones we expected to jump on the May 2014 reelection bus. They were supposed to abide by Liberal rule, and ride in the back seat. Then everything turned upside down. The conservative political base tapped Martha Lucía Ramírez as its presidential candida...

Investment, Beyond the Upgrade
MEXICO · Report · 11 Feb 2014

Executive Summary Last Wednesday the ratings agency Moody's Investors Service upgraded Mexican sovereign debt from Baa1 to A3. Moody’s also noted its stable outlook on Mexican debt, which the firm said is an indication that it does not foresee any significant changes in its Mexico rating during t...

From Inquisitorial to Adversarial Justice
MEXICO · Report · 11 Feb 2014

Executive Summary One of the weakest links in the Mexican state is its chronic inability to mete out justice in an expeditious, transparent and efficient manner. The entire justice system has lacked the minimal funding and human capital, and it is hamstrung by a more systemic weakness: its depend...

The Government’s Options in an Election Year
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Feb 2014

Executive Summary Brazil’s current account deficits are large in relation to the capital inflows, putting pressure on the real. Along with this, inflation is high and economic growth has been decelerating. The situation cannot yet be called stagflation, but there is a risk of this in the near ...

Slowing Growth and Uncertainties Over the Interest Rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Feb 2014

The sharp contraction of industrial production in December was a big surprise. The index not only revealed that output fell in the fourth quarter, but also that because of the carry-over to the first quarter of 2014, it will be very hard to achieve a positive variation of the industrial productio...

Central Bank Policy: Which Way is Forward?
HUNGARY · Report · 10 Feb 2014

Executive Summary Since our latest report on 9 January, important new information has surfaced in six areas. This included an eyebrow-raising speech by MNB governor Matolcsy in late January, an official announcement on the third wave of administrative cuts in public utility tariffs, a government ...

Political Insights: Week of February 10
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Feb 2014

The government resumes discussions with the PMDB on ministerial changes. There are rumors that Minister Fernando Pimentel will leave his position this week. In the House, Henrique Eduardo Alves announced that he will put the Internet Framework Law up for a vote, but the lack of consensus could, o...

Gross foreign reserves decline 12.8% against messy situation at the forex
UKRAINE · In Brief · 07 Feb 2014

We observe very ‘mysterious’ developments at the forex market since the start of the year. In January forex daily turnover doubled (to USD 2.3 billion) from average daily turnover in 2013 and on some days even exceeded USD 5.0 billion. Still the sources of the demand remain unclear. There was no ...

Fair Prices or General Price Control?
VENEZUELA · Report · 07 Feb 2014

The recently approved Law on Fair Prices (LOPJ) fully subjects economic activity to state control. The law created a government agency with broad powers to regulate prices, costs and profit margins of all companies and individuals producing goods and services in Venezuela. Penalties and sanctions...

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