GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

At 0.8%, CPI-inflation came in at somewhat higher than consensus, but broadly in line with our forecast. The 12-month rate nevertheless edged down to 7.9%, from 8.2% in August, thanks to last year’s elevated base. Notably, at 0.7%, core inflation -- measured by the I-index that excludes food, tob...

Serra’s Permanence in PSDB is Positive for Dilma and Poses Challenges for Aécio

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Oct 2013

Former Governor José Serra (PSDB-SP) has decided to remain in the PSDB.There was a possibility of Serra's going to the PPS.The national president of the PPS, Rep. Roberto Freire (SP), had offered the party to the former governor to run for president again in 2014. Freire claims that “He (Serra) c...

Industrial Production Stagnant and Without Good Perspectives

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Oct 2013

Industrial production in August was stable, causing a decline of 1.2% in the 12-month variation (Graph 1). With this, the carry-over to the third quarter reached -1.7%, meaning that for output to remain stable in the quarter, growth in September will have to be 5.1%, which is highly unlikely. In ...

Uncertain Times

ARGENTINA · Report · 02 Oct 2013

This report reviews some factors that are generating political and economic uncertainty for the immediate future. They are the upcoming midterm elections, the legal battle with the holdouts, the dubious 2014 Budget, and the government’s interventionist stance. Although none seems important enough...

How the Budget Numbers Stack Up

MEXICO · Report · 01 Oct 2013

Executive SummaryA series of legally binding budget deadlines, legislative calendars and partisan political calculations pose the possibility of a congressional train wreck if the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto and the leaders of the main political parties fail to find common grou...

Political Insights: Week of September 30

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Sep 2013

A week of intense political negotiation, as Saturday is the deadline for the creation and membership of political parties for the 2014 elections. On Tuesday, the TSE examines the creation of Rede, Marina Silva’s party. Main Topics on the October Agenda Politically, the beginning of the month of O...

EL SALVADOR: Stiff Challenges

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Sep 2013

Executive SummaryEl Salvador’s next president won’t have an easy time of it. His major challenge, after taking office next June, will be to restoke growth, dragging along at about 2% since 2009, when real GDP declined by 3.1%. Our 2013-14 forecast points to more of the same. A key element will be...

Weekly Tracker: Sep 29-Oct 5

TURKEY · Report · 29 Sep 2013

Executive SummaryMonday is a landmark day in Turkish politics, when PM Erdogan unveils the Reform Package. Contents will not satisfy either the Kurdish or the Alevite leadership, but the masses may be more sympathetic. A strange brawl during a soccer derby appears related to Gezi Parki, proving o...

2014 Election

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Sep 2013

Dilma Recovers Popularity and Improves her Position Ahead of the Upcoming Succession Race The most recent CNI/Ibope on evaluations of the Dilma Rousseff administration revealed that her approval (good/very good) increased six percentage points (from 31% to 37%) from July to September.The “regular...

Fiscal Expansion Constraining Monetary Policy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Sep 2013

Executive Summary The objective of this work is to discuss the empirical evidence on the interference of fiscal policy in monetary policy. We compare various fiscal policy measures and find that the one that performs the best by far (including in comparison with the structural primary surplus, pr...

Q3 Woes Continue in Spite of Q2 Surprises

COLOMBIA · Report · 27 Sep 2013

Executive Summary Surprisingly strong Q2 GDP results were driven by fast-expanding agriculture, construction and social services, and general economic activity grew by a healthy 4.2%. The big shock was in manufacturing, which expanded by 1.2%, though leading indicators had suggested a negative re...

Koc Tender Officially Cancelled

TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Sep 2013

In the war between AKP and its alleged secularist conspiratorial nemesis Koc Group, the first blood was officially drawn today. In a Defense Procurement Committee meeting chaired by PM Erdogan, the US$1.5 billion MilGem tender (for the construction of four Navy vessels) have been canceled on acco...

Critical Choices

UKRAINE · Forecast · 25 Sep 2013

Executive Summary November will be a critical month for Ukraine. The results of the Eastern Partnership Summit will address many lingering questions. We will soon know how serious the authorities are about releasing jailed former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko; how likely Ukraine is to cooperate...

Going Into Extractivism to Get Out From Extractivism

ECUADOR · Report · 25 Sep 2013

Executive SummaryEcuadorians do not understand why President Correa is enduring the evident political cost of pushing for Legislative approval to exploit the ITT camps. The $2.5b per year in revenues for around 20 years, seem insufficient to achieve the economic transformation the government link...

Is it Really Over?

INDONESIA · Report · 24 Sep 2013

Executive Summary Calming good news in the media seems to have quelled late-August/mid-September financial jitters in the Indonesian financial market; at least, the long lines in front of the exchange houses have dwindled. We now see light at the end of the tunnel. The first bit of good new...