GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Executive Summary March local election campaign started with headscarves in parliament and Mr. Sarigul, the popular mayor of Istanbul’s Sisli district, joining the CHP ranks. There is no more room for reforms until after the elections. We begin by outlining our preliminary predictions for the loc...

Entering a New Cycle?

CHILE · Report · 31 Oct 2013

Executive Summary After 20 months with no change in the monetary policy rate, the Central Bank decided it was time to deliver a cut. The Board of the Central Bank of Chile decided in October to reduce the monetary policy rate from 5.00% to 4.75%. The timing of the move came as a surprise. The exp...

Rebound Promises Improvement

INDONESIA · Report · 31 Oct 2013

Executive Summary Q3 economic performance maintained its dynamism, according to corporate analyses released so far. Several of these reports chronicle continuing growth, bolstered by spending linked to the Ramadan celebrations (Ramadan shifts from year to year, and this year ran from July 8-Au...

Turning Point On Growth?

PERU · Report · 30 Oct 2013

Executive Summary Scandal upon scandal seems to be erupting, crowding out potential debates over substantive political issues. First, there’s the string of corruption cases in Congress—the latest focused on a politician discovered paying himself more than half the congressional funds meant for hi...

Unemployment Rate Eases on Rising Absorption Rate

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 29 Oct 2013

According to Statistics South Africa, the Q3 2013 unemployment rate of 24.7% is 0.9 percentage points lower than the 25.6% recorded in Q2 2013 (see Graph 1 below). This was mainly driven by an increase in the number of employed persons (2.2% q/q) coupled with a decrease in the number of unemploye...

Scaling Back Revenues

MEXICO · Report · 29 Oct 2013

Executive Summary Banco de México announced Friday that it was lowering its target interbank lending rate by 25 basis points from 3.75% to 3.50%. The move, which was widely expected, was the central bank’s third rate cut year to date. In the statement accompanying the rate announcement, Banco de ...

Euro-integration Stories

UKRAINE · Report · 29 Oct 2013

Executive Summary Every other burning issue seems forgotten, as the whole country waits to see whether Ukraine and the EU will sign the Association Agreement. Businesses are anticipating positive news. The FX market has calmed, since officials have promised lots of foreign cash after the signing....

Midterm Election Readings

ARGENTINA · Report · 28 Oct 2013

As we mentioned in the Global Source Partner Direct webpage, when analyzing the preliminary outcome of yesterday’s mid-term elections in Argentina one should primarily focus on two main aspects. The government new power balance in the CongressThe outlook for the 2015 presidential candidates With ...

Cooling of the Labor Market and Perspectives for Consumption

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Oct 2013

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in September rose slightly, from 5.3% to 5.4%, still near the historic low levels where it has hovered for some time now. This could lead to the conclusion that the job market remains hot, favoring growth of consumption. But a deeper look at the informati...

Political Insights: Week of October 28

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Oct 2013

The unification of the ICMS will dominate discussions in the Senate. The ICMS will also be debated by Confaz. The Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) will vote on the bill of law to create the compensation funds for state and municipal losses.In the House, we highlight the Civil Framework for the In...

COSTA RICA: Finance Minister Campaigns for a Deficit Cut

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 25 Oct 2013

Executive SummaryCosta Rican Finance Minister Edgar Ayales is trying to turn the country’s ballooning fiscal deficit into an electoral issue, in the runup to the February 2014 presidential vote. He recently released a 52-page missive, in which he and his team analyzed the results of six months of...

Public Insecurity Worsens Further

MEXICO · Report · 23 Oct 2013

Executive Summary The overall crime rate per 100,000 inhabitants has risen consistently since 2010 according to the National Statistics Office’s Third National Victimization and Security Perception Survey or “ENVIPE”. The study, conducted between March and April of 2013, queried people on matters...

MPC: Cut and Paste, Wait and See

TURKEY · Report · 23 Oct 2013

As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee left all rates (weekly policy as well as the O/N rates; see graph) and all other policy levers unchanged today. The wording of the statement was literally a carbon copy of the September statement (click here for this and here for the previous statements....

Industrial Decoupling’s Future

MEXICO · Report · 23 Oct 2013

Executive Summary The most significant news on the economic front last week was the Chamber of Deputies’ vote to pass its version of the 2014 Revenue Law. Changes to tax laws include the levying of a 5% tax on junk food (fruit-flavored candies, chocolates, chips or crisps, gelatins, ice cream, an...

Political Insights: Week of October 21

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Oct 2013

A busy week: Once again the Confaz will try to make an agreement for the unification of the ICMS.The government may also edit an MP on goodwill accounting in cases of mergers and acquisitions among companies in the same group. In the House of Representatives, congressmen will try to conclude the ...