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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Two Crises: Political and Fiscal
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Apr 2016

In the midst of the worst recession in the past 35 years, caused by the current government’s mistakes, Brazil is facing two crises: a fiscal crisis, leading to explosive growth of the gross public sector debt in relation to GDP; and a political crisis that threatens the administration’s survival....

Imagining a Victory
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 11 Apr 2016

Russia’s announcement of a troop withdrawal from Syria after an alleged victory is both a domestic and international move. The domestic audience can now celebrate victory and feel relieved that the campaign will not last forever. Meanwhile, internationally, it sends a signal that Russia is willin...

Mr. Murat Cetinkaya to Become the New CBRT Governor
TURKEY · In Brief · 11 Apr 2016

Today the government has decided on the appointment of Mr. Murat Cetinkaya -- currently a Deputy Governor and an MPC member -- as the new Governor of the CBRT. Mr. Cetinkaya (together with Dr. Ahmet Faruk Aysan, the Bank Board's Representative at the MPC) was among the most likely candidates for ...

Alleviation of Inflation and Caution by the Central Bank
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Apr 2016

The IPCA in March grew by 0.43%, bringing the figure over the preceding 12 months to 9.39%, the lowest since June last year. The deceleration was led by regulated prices, but was helped by less adjustment pressures in service prices. The country seems to have entered a period of declining inflati...

Majority of the PMDB believes the impeachment will be approved
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Apr 2016

A poll conducted by Arko Advice from April 5-7, with 44 Federal Representatives from the PMDB, reveals that 52% believe the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff will be approved by the House of Representatives. 39% think otherwise, while 9% did not know or did not answer.

Peru's runoff will be contested between Keiko Fujimori and Pedro Pablo Kuczynsky
PERU · In Brief · 11 Apr 2016

It is just past midnight on the election day in Peru and currently processed data suggest that almost surely Keiko Fujimori and Pedro Pablo Kuczynsky will participate in the runoff election scheduled for the 5th. of June. A sample of actual votes surveyed by Ipsos, a pollster, indicates that Fuji...

Yatsenyuk announces resignation
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Apr 2016

Today Prime-minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk announced his intention to resign. His resignation statement will be officially submitted to the Parliament on April 12th. In fact, this means that President Poroshenko has finally found enough votes at the Parliament for Volodymyr Groysman who will be nomin...

Weekly Tracker: April 10-16
TURKEY · Report · 10 Apr 2016

Erdogan and Davutoglu frequently clash in front of the public nowadays, which suggests that Turkey’s two-headed administrative set-up is not sustainable. The question is whether Erdogan would replace Davutoglu, or the latter would rebel against him. If Erdogan doesn’t move, the failure of the Con...

Scandal, they're going to turn our lives into a freak show
CHILE · Forecast · 08 Apr 2016

Economics: Growth has trended downwards throughout the year. The situation regarding domestic demand is even less auspicious than that of total GDP. Moreover, last year, exports (measured in real terms) experienced their first yearly contraction since 2009. The devaluation of the peso has not aff...

Dicom and money supply will push inflation up
VENEZUELA · Report · 08 Apr 2016

Inflation will accelerate modestly in April in May to a MOM rate of 10.0 and 15.9 percent, with YOY inflation rising to 345.4 and 368.8 percent. The shortage indicator will exceed the record-high level of 41.3 percent where it settled since November 2015. Our forecast is based on the assumption t...

Downgrade and Slowdown Ahead
MEXICO · Report · 08 Apr 2016

Moderate industrial growth, plus service sector and consumption trends, were the main economic growth drivers in March. A positive monthly report from Antad showed that retailers expanded sales in February at their fastest pace in four months. But the broader indicators (IGAE and industrial activ...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Apr 2016

NIETHER DILMA NOR TEMER... – Dilma Rousseff’s reaction to avoid impeachment continues to ignore the costs her strategy will impose on the country, be they political, institutional or economic. If she wins her “holy war” against impeachment, the government will be even feebler than at the start of...

Official FX reserves fell by €4.2bn in March, but that was a welcome event
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Apr 2016

Official FX reserves fell to €27.55bn at end-March from €31.72bn in the previous month, reaching the lowest level since 2009. The cumulative decrease of FX reserves has been €2.8bn since the start of this year. However, this was nothing unexpected, and the MNB is actually looking at this developm...

The Plot Thickens
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 06 Apr 2016

On 4 April 2016 ICSID awarded Crystallex $1.4 billion as compensation for the Las Cristinas gold mine expropriation in 2008. The Venezuelan government could have settled this claim by returning Las Cristinas to Crystallex, were it not that six weeks ago the government included Las Cristinas in th...

Impeachment process
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Apr 2016

Supreme Court Minister Marco Aurélio Mello’s decision to determine that the president of the House must accept an impeachment request against vice president Michel Temer and create a committee to analyze the request, caught politicians and legal experts by surprise. The radical nature of the dec...

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