GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

In September the IPCA rose 0.35%, greater than the increase of the IPCA-15 for that month (0.27%). With this, inflation over the preceding 12 months accumulated a variation of 5.86% (Graph 1). The IPCA for September should mark the end of a cycle of about four months of relatively benign monthly ...

MTP 2014-16: Cozy But Unlikely

TURKEY · Report · 09 Oct 2013

The authorities’ Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2014-16 was announced yesterday. The revisions made to the three main macro aggregates and our quick thoughts on them are summarized below. Table 1 below provides the key macro indicators for the current and previous MTPs, while annex tables (1-4) pr...

MTP 2014-16: And Then, a Miracle Happens…

TURKEY · In Brief · 08 Oct 2013

The Medium-Term Program for 2014-16 was announced today, somewhat earlier than expected. The government revised down the growth rate for this year to 3.6% and for the next year to 4%, from previous MTP’s 4% and 5%, respectively. Inflation is forecasted to end the year at 6.8%, vs. the 5.3% in t...

Passing a Point of Inflection

MEXICO · Report · 08 Oct 2013

Economic Panorama Last week we discussed the factors that have most contributed to the way in which the Mexican economy began to get bogged down during the first half of the year. In this edition we turn our attention to updated indicators – such as Mexico’s monthly GDP proxy (Index of Global Eco...

Sweeten the Pot

MEXICO · Report · 07 Oct 2013

Executive Summary Last week GEA-ISA published the results of its most recent quarterly survey of voter opinion, which on this occasion focused on issues related to proposed fiscal and energy reforms. The public finds little it agrees with in the structural reform proposals offered to date, with c...

Political Insights: Week of October 7

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Oct 2013

In the economy, two highlights: the Central Bank announces its decision on the interest rate, and the IBGE releases inflation figures for September. In the Senate, we highlight the resumed discussions on the unification of ICMS and state debt, as well as the possible vote, in the Constitution and...

Improved Trade Balance in September: Effect of the Real Exchange Rate Still Small

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Oct 2013

Brazil’s trade balance in September was in surplus by US$ 2.1 billion, indicating recovery. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the annualized surplus of US$ 16.4 billion is the largest since the end of last year (Graph 1). However, this result cannot be attributed to the weaker real exchange rate. G...

Weekly Tracker: October 6-12

TURKEY · Report · 06 Oct 2013

Executive Summary On the international front, there is only a remote hope of progress in the Iran vs. P5+1 negotiations, or in Syria, while Iraq is in tenterhooks. As regional conflicts spread out, contagion to Turkey through terror and ethnic strife may become more apparent. Kurds rejected the R...

Stability Reaffirmed

CIS POLITICS · Report · 04 Oct 2013

Sergei Sobyanin won the Moscow Mayor’s election but with a small voter turnout, and voter support for himself only marginally higher than 50%. That may cause his position in the elite hierarchy to become less prominent. His main opponent, Alexey Navalny, won more than a quarter of the vote, despi...

Stability Reaffirmed

CIS POLITICS · Report · 04 Oct 2013

Sergei Sobyanin won the Moscow Mayor’s election but ensured a small voter turnout and voter support for himself only marginally higher than 50%. That may make his position in the elite hierarchy become less prominent. His main opponent Alexey Navalny won over a quarter of all votes despite having...

Bad Print, Lira Pass-Through Continues

TURKEY · Report · 03 Oct 2013

At 0.8%, CPI-inflation came in at somewhat higher than consensus, but broadly in line with our forecast. The 12-month rate nevertheless edged down to 7.9%, from 8.2% in August, thanks to last year’s elevated base. Notably, at 0.7%, core inflation -- measured by the I-index that excludes food, tob...

Serra’s Permanence in PSDB is Positive for Dilma and Poses Challenges for Aécio

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Oct 2013

Former Governor José Serra (PSDB-SP) has decided to remain in the PSDB.There was a possibility of Serra's going to the PPS.The national president of the PPS, Rep. Roberto Freire (SP), had offered the party to the former governor to run for president again in 2014. Freire claims that “He (Serra) c...

Industrial Production Stagnant and Without Good Perspectives

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Oct 2013

Industrial production in August was stable, causing a decline of 1.2% in the 12-month variation (Graph 1). With this, the carry-over to the third quarter reached -1.7%, meaning that for output to remain stable in the quarter, growth in September will have to be 5.1%, which is highly unlikely. In ...

Uncertain Times

ARGENTINA · Report · 02 Oct 2013

This report reviews some factors that are generating political and economic uncertainty for the immediate future. They are the upcoming midterm elections, the legal battle with the holdouts, the dubious 2014 Budget, and the government’s interventionist stance. Although none seems important enough...

How the Budget Numbers Stack Up

MEXICO · Report · 01 Oct 2013

Executive SummaryA series of legally binding budget deadlines, legislative calendars and partisan political calculations pose the possibility of a congressional train wreck if the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto and the leaders of the main political parties fail to find common grou...