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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

I Am An Excellent, Excellent Driver
TURKEY · Report · 22 May 2014

Contrary to our – and most analysts’ -- expectations, the Monetary Policy Committee cut the one-week repo rate by 50 bps today to 9.5%, while it kept the O/N lending and borrowing rates unchanged (see chart). This cut is significant because the one-week repo rate has regained its prevalence as th...

No Hike in the Benchmark Interest Rate…For Now
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 May 2014

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has opted to leave the repo rate at 5.5% per year (see Graph 1). The Bank cited a challenging environment characterized by a weak domestic economy coupled with elevated price pressures as factors that informed its stance. Gra...

El Salvador: Falling to Earth
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 22 May 2014

Executive SummaryWith the June 1 Inauguration Day approaching, President-elect Salvador Sánchez is being forced to face financial realities. Though he’s built bridges with various sectors and laid the groundwork for a favorable domestic climate, recent data make clear that the budget lacks funds,...

Medina Most Popular of All
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 21 May 2014

Executive Summary Even two years before the 2016 presidential elections, prospective candidates for the two main political parties are beginning to place in the polls. As expected, former president Leonel Fernández is the most popular prospective PLD candidate so far, according to the most recent...

Political Reform At Last
MEXICO · Report · 20 May 2014

Executive Summary Last week Congress approved an overhaul of the country’s electoral laws to bring them in keeping with the relevant constitutional amendments passed last year, thereby eliminating the possibility that the 2015 midterm elections might be held in some kind of legal limbo. In the pr...

Breaking Down the NIP
MEXICO · Report · 20 May 2014

Executive Summary This week we continue our analysis of the National Infrastructure Plan (NIP) for 2014-2018. In aggregate terms, investment is projected to average 8% of annual GDP and 37% of total investment (gross fixed capital formation). Those numbers imply that the ratio of total investment...

Yuan Won’t Be Down for Long
CHINA · Report · 19 May 2014

Executive Summary China’s main economic indicators in April either held to their lows or declined further. Industrial output rose 8.7% y/y, turning in the same anemic performance as in Q1. Fixed asset investment rose16.8% y/y in real terms, down 0.8 pps. We expect general slowdown to persist i...

South Africa’s Evolving Democracy: Beyond Elections May 2014
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 19 May 2014

SA national elections on May 7th 2014 marked the 20th anniversary of the country’s constitutional democracy. While the ANC maintained its control over the national government with a 62% majority, it had much to worry about when examining the details of voting patterns across the 9 provinces and t...

Economic Activity: Recent Signs and Trend
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 May 2014

There are clear signs that the economy remains weak. The numbers announced last week – the IBC-Br, which is a preview of GDP calculated by the Central Bank, and real retail sales, estimated by the IBGE – confirm this perception. In March the IBC-Br dipped by 0.1%, leading to first-quarter growth ...

Political Insights: Week of July 19
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 May 2014

A new Ibope presidential poll will be released this week.Mayors meet with Finance Minister Guido Mantega to request an increase in federal resources.In the House, the bill that corrects the income tax for individuals may be voted upon.The Petrobras CPIs continue on the agenda in the Senate and Co...

Weekly Tracker: May 18-24
TURKEY · Report · 18 May 2014

Executive Summary There is yet not enough evidence in the Soma mine disaster that either the owner of Soma Holding or AKP’s preferential treatment of the mine was directly responsible. Yet, AKP’s defensive manner and the very poor PR management of the disaster turned the public wrath against the ...

Election 2014: An Unexpected Majority
INDIA · Report · 16 May 2014

The election results, which give the BJP a clear majority, are the first time since 1984 that one party has had a majority. This opens up all sorts of exciting possibilities. An Unexpected Majority In 1984, the Congress won 414 seats compared with the 272 required for a majority. After that, no s...

Santos could lose the election
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 15 May 2014

Finally, all the major political polls published their latest results this week. All of them show Mr. Santos losing serious ground to his competitors, but even more worrisome is the fact that many of them show he might very well lose in the run-off too. Even Gallup, probably the most well-conduct...

Very strong GDP figure out for Q1 2014
HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 May 2014

Real GDP grew a preliminary 1.1% qoq / 3.2% yoy swda in Q1 2014, following a revised 0.7% qoq / 2.9% yoy swda in Q4 2013, as reported by the Central Statistical Office (KSH) this morning. This is a seven-year peak in the yoy number. As usual for preliminary GDP data releases, no details are avail...

Mid-week review in Turkish politics
TURKEY · In Brief · 14 May 2014

Turkish government declared three days of national mourning as the death toll in the Soma coal mine accident reached 205. I fear it may reach as high as 450. Was this a genuine “act of God”? Or the result of careless privatization and deregulation in the mining industry? While the debate is alrea...

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