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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The CBT moves in the right direction, uncertainties remain
TURKEY · In Brief · 28 Jan 2014

Governor Basci spoke today at the presentation of the year's first Inflation Report. As common sense dictates given the developments to date, inflation estimate for this year was revised upward to 6.6%, from 5.3% earlier. This was driven by food prices (0.3 pp), January tax adjustments (0.5 pp) a...

Dictatorship laws cancelled
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Jan 2014

Parliament voted in cancelation of dictatorship laws. It is too premature to talk about resolving of the political crisis but we already have two positive signals (including resignation of prime-minister) that real dialogue between contesting parties has started. Against this backdrop we anticipa...

On the Brink of Civil War
UKRAINE · Report · 28 Jan 2014

Executive Summary The situation in Ukraine is unfolding unpredictably, and fast.The dictatorial laws that the authorities “approved” – according to the government’s official version – to scare people away from protests created the radical opposite effect: Ukrainians burst into the streets, seethi...

Prime-minister resigns – a chance for peaceful way out
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Jan 2014

Prime-minister Mykola Azarov resigned today. It does not mean that we will see the end of protests very soon – Viktor Yanukovitch remains the main problem at the country. However, it is a strong signal that Yanukovitch is really seeking some concession. This step considerably reduces chance for f...

Tweaking The Model To The Left?
ECUADOR · Report · 28 Jan 2014

Executive SummaryThe beginning of 2014 brought important changes regarding laws and regulations that will affect the productive and financial sectors. Companies will face restrictive changes in their marketing and publicity strategies and decisions as well as in their product labeling practices. ...

Elevation of the Selic Rate: What Will Be the Next Step?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Jan 2014

There are two interpretations for the 50-basis-point hike in the SELIC rate at the last COPOM meeting. The first is that it was a reaction to the “surprisingly high” inflation in December, to be followed by slight deceleration in January, strengthening the expectation of just one more increase, o...

Return to orthodoxy?
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Jan 2014

Today's market developments, with the TL/$ heading to just below 2.4 despite an additional tightening day, prompted the Bank to call an extraordinary meeting. The meeting will be held tomorrow night, and the decision will be announced at 12 a.m. midnight local time. Before that, we have the Infla...

Starting Off Right
INDONESIA · Report · 27 Jan 2014

Executive Summary This year kicked off on an optimistic note. The Fed’s decision to begin tapering ended uncertainties, and reignited global investment in emerging markets countries. Both the Indonesian stock market index and the rupiah gained in the first few weeks of the year. The new opt...

Weekly Tracker: January 26-February 1
TURKEY · Report · 26 Jan 2014

Executive Summary Erdogan calling Pastor Gulen a “false prophet” suggests that there shall be no peace between AKP and the Gulen Movement until after the local elections at the earliest. Get ready for a very rocky ride by reading our predictions on upcoming events. AKP threatened to unveil damagi...

Waiting For The Second Shoe
VENEZUELA · Report · 26 Jan 2014

Measures announced so far, in our view, set the stage for a more meaningful bolivar devaluation shortly. This is just the beginning. So far the government has sharpened the tools for forex and price controls, raised the cost and reduced the amount of dollars for personal expenses abroad, and clos...

Devilish tricks: Yanukovitch ‘buys’ opposition with posts at the Cabinet
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 Jan 2014

Viktor Yanukovitch proposed for opposition leaders posts at the Cabinet. Arseniy Yatsenyuk was suggested to become prime-minister and Vitaliy Klitchko – vice-prime minister. From the first glance the step might look like a search for compromise with the protesters. Indeed dismissal of the Cabinet...

Peg Ain’t Crawling No More
ARGENTINA · Report · 24 Jan 2014

Two days ago, the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) surprised markets by failing to intervene as expected; hence letting the official USDARS rise from 6.93 to 7.14. Yesterday, the spot rate closed at 7.75 after reaching 8.3 in the intraday market, which forced the BCRA to intervene (it sold $180m ...

Negotiations failed. Party of war wins. Escalation is ahead.
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 Jan 2014

Today, Andrey Kluyev, the Head of National Security and Defense Council was appointed Head of President Office. Mr. Kluyev, according to media reports, is suspected to be the one who coordinated all crackdowns and provocations against protesters. After yesterdays’ fail of negotiations with Yanuko...

Turkey blind-sighted by Rojava Kurds
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Jan 2014

Syria’s long-suffering Rojava Kurds declared “transitional democratic autonomy” after they have been denied a separate delegation to represent them at the Geneva Peace Conference. While this development is not going to be noticed by the media or markets now, it actually poses a much more signific...

Search for Revived Productivity Growth
MEXICO · Report · 22 Jan 2014

Executive Summary The World Bank published its Global Economic Prospects (GEP) report last Wednesday, in which it estimates Mexico GDP will expand 3.4% in 2014 and that part of the expansion will be facilitated by US growth. The report adds that the global economy continues with its gradual recov...

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