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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Investment: Better Late than Never
MEXICO · Report · 21 Feb 2014

Two weeks ago the relationship between investment and growth was analyzed here.There were still some aspects to be developed. Within this context one month ago, the Federal Government made a decision of great importance for public, private, and joint investments.For the first time in decades, the...

A Stronger Bottom Line
INDONESIA · Report · 21 Feb 2014

Executive Summary A cascade of good news in February firmed recent optimism. The first report was about inflation, suggesting that price rises were moderating. This was especially happy news, given Indonesia’s sensitivity to weather-prone inflation, as the country’s geographic position and arc...

Political Earthquake
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 Feb 2014

The Venezuelan political puzzle, shaken by widespread protests since early February, is slowly starting to come together again even though some parts don’t fit together yet. Leopoldo López’s image as opposition leader has strengthened. He turned himself in on February 18, as promised, in a massiv...

Yanukovitch agreed for early elections and for constitutional changes, president office
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Feb 2014

According to official web-site Yanukovitch agreed for early elections (in December), for constitutional change (more authorities to parliament) and for creation of coalition government. In fact, this decision will not make people at Maidan happy after yesterday bloodshed but it could reduce tensi...

Agreement on cutting Yanukovitch power reached, media report
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Feb 2014

Media reported that through the night there was reached an agreement about cutting Yanukovitch power through resurrection of Constitution 2004 (over the next 48 hours) and creation of coalition government (over the next 10 days). Also media say that Yanukovitch agreed for early elections in Decem...

Weak Foreign Public Sector Assets
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 Feb 2014

We update our estimate of public sector foreign financial assets including official data on the central bank’s foreign reserves and partial information on non-reserve assets. We estimate that unencumbered liquid foreign assets fell to $30.3 billion by December 2013 from $46.8 billion in December ...

Time to Pay the Piper
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 20 Feb 2014

Executive Summary After a sharp devaluation of the peso in January (23% m/m and 60 % y/y) the Central Bank launched a series of measures allowing for temporary stabilization of the money and FX markets. First, the Bank reinforced the sterilization policy, by raising interest rates by more than 10...

Denouement is close... last minute solution search
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Feb 2014

Very strange events are happening at Madian today. At the morning all police forces retreated not only from Maidan but also from the government block they have been defending so fiercely over the last few months. Protesters followed them to some extent inspired by unexpected success. However, now...

A Concerned Central Bank? Don’t Bet On It
COLOMBIA · Report · 19 Feb 2014

The fact that the exchange rate has depreciated by 5.0% in so far this year has made investors nervous. Although this bears no resemblance to the depreciation rates observed in other emerging countries such as Argentina (23.4%) and Turkey (8.4%), and can easily be interpreted as a catching up of ...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Feb 2014

Dilma Maintains Her Lead In A Complex Scenario On Tuesday CNT released a new poll evaluating the Dilma Rousseff administration, as well as the presidential succession. The poll, conducted on February 9-14, is the first poll released in 2014 and has a 2.2 percent margin of error. Approval of the g...

Back to the Seventies
ECUADOR · Forecast · 19 Feb 2014

Executive Summary The economy may have grown 4.5% last year -- 0.5 pp above expectations, though more slowly than in 2012. That would follow a Q3 growth rate of 4.9% y/y, and 1.8% q/q – the highest quarterly growth rate in a year. Oil is the driver of these happy results: oil manufacturing expand...

Medina Strengthens his Hand
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 19 Feb 2014

Executive SummaryPresident Danilo Medina and his team swept the vote in the PLD convention that elected new members for its most powerful bodies. Medina’s followers landed almost all the new posts, in contests for both the central and political committee.The big loser was former President Leonel ...

Feeling the Squeeze
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 18 Feb 2014

As was the case in other emerging markets economies (EMEs) hit by the exodus of capital – due to a reduction of monetary stimulus in the US – the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) swung into action by raising the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.5% per year in February 2014 (see Gr...

A Late-Year Growth Rebound?
INDIA · Report · 18 Feb 2014

Executive SummaryCPI inflation is slowing, as both the shock INR depreciation delivered to tradeables inflation in mid-2013, and food inflation, are subsiding. This is delivering an optimistic inflation picture, with CPI inflation falling into the single digits for the first time this year.The Re...

Inflation Concerns Come to the Fore
TURKEY · Report · 18 Feb 2014

As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee did not change any of the interest rates today (Graph 1). But the tone of the statement is quite hawkish, in our view, with the very first sentence of the statement devoted to inflation. (“The Committee closely monitors recent deterioration in the inflat...

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