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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Playing Monetary Hawk and Dove Games at the Economy’s Peril
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 Jul 2015

On July 23, 2015, the monetary authority of South Africa voted to increase the repo rate by 25 basis points. Such a move can be construed as a confirmation that the South African Reserve Bank has kept to its long-held assertion that it had embarked on an interest rate hiking cycle. Apparently, th...

The Disastrous Loosening of Fiscal Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Jul 2015

Last week, the finance and planning ministers announced that the primary surplus target for 2015 has been reduced from 1.1% to 0.15% of GDP. The targets for 2016 and 2017, which were previously set at at least 2% of GDP, have also been lowered, to 0.7% and 1.3% of GDP, respectively. None of these...

South Africa’s Shifting Political Economy: Labor Unions Thrown into Turmoil
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 Jul 2015

After a year-long struggle to regain its membership of COSATU, SA’s largest private sector union, National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (NUMSA) with an estimated membership of over 360,000 members, resolved to go on its own and form a new “union confederation” and launch its own “workeri...

How debt constrains growth in China
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 27 Jul 2015

Special points to highlight in this issue: The sustainability of China’s economic model and its dependence on debt has been a controversial topic far longer than it should have been, but while there is now a consensus that Chinese debt levels are very high and may put the country at risk, most ec...

Weekly Tracker: July 26-August 1
TURKEY · Report · 26 Jul 2015

Executive Summary It has been a week of shocking developments in Turkish politics. After the Suruc bombing, Ankara declared war on ISIS, granting access to Coalition Air Forces in all of its airbases. As we write the Weekly Tracker (in the early morning hours), the Turkish Air Force was bombing I...

If You Don’t Have It, You Can’t Spend It
COLOMBIA · Forecast · 24 Jul 2015

Executive Summary What does the FARC really want from a peace agreement? We believe the answer can be found in those half dozen border provinces where the guerrillas derive most of their income, and where their investments and wealth are concentrated. We believe prospects for a deal are good: as ...

Twin terror may spell reelections
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Jul 2015

Twin terror may spell reelections Turkey suddenly became the target of PKK and ISIS, as the former escalated attacks against police and alleged members of Islamist organizations, while the latter attacked Turkish NCOs at the border. As I write these lines, Turkish F16s had just struck ISIS target...

Ukraine is expected to pay $120 million coupon today
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 Jul 2015

Scarce information is available on negotiations with creditors. What we know is that no agreement was reached so far while the IMF promised to pay money whatever happens on debt operations. In this context the main question was whether Finance Ministry will dare to impose moratorium on debt repay...

Hopeful Wait for Disinflation Continues
TURKEY · Report · 23 Jul 2015

The Monetary Policy Committee left all key short-term rates unchanged as expected today – one-week repo rate at 7.5% and the O/N lending and borrowing rates at 10.75% and 7.25%, respectively (see chart). The content of the statement is exactly the same with the previous one except for one minor m...

The Benchmark Interest Rate Goes Up
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 23 Jul 2015

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to increase the repo rate from 5.75 to 6.0% per year, effective Friday, July 24, 2015 (see Graph 1). Graph 1 Repo rate, South Africa, Jul ’13 – Jul ‘15 Source: SARB and PAIRS Today’s MPC decision appears to be largely...

The MNB reduced the base rate but also ended its recent easing cycle on July 21
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Jul 2015

In our monthly report of July, we predicted that at the Monetary Council's next meeting, the MNB would end its most recent series of base rate cuts, which was started in March from 2.1% and was carried out in 15 bps steps over four consecutive months since then. This was in the face of an average...

Politics: An Unforgivable Mistake
MEXICO · Report · 22 Jul 2015

Executive Summary When Mexico’s most famous drug kingpin and high-security prisoner broke out of the country’s top maximum security facility, it was just the latest example of how much a culture of government corruption and official indifference has left the entire criminal justice system vulnera...

Economics: Household Income and Spending
MEXICO · Report · 22 Jul 2015

Executive Summary Last week’s report on the National Survey of Household Income and Spending for 2014, which tracks general totals as well as the origin and distribution of such income and spending, showed that current monetary incomes fell 3.1% including transfers, and 0.9% without transfers. In...

Dilma Rousseff Administration
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jul 2015

CNT/MDA:Considerable wear on the image of Dilma and Lula The CNT/MDA poll released yesterday presents a worrisome scenario for the Planalto: Disapproval of the Dilma Rousseff administration has surpassed 70%, while only 7.7% evaluate it positively, confirming the trend anticipated by Ibope – appr...

Growth Slows Amid Loss of Confidence
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Jul 2015

Executive SummaryEcuadorians are already seeing the painful effects of falling oil prices. Though Q1 economic growth was 3% y/y, but it was down 0.5% from Q4 2014, deepening the downtrend that started in 2013. Household consumption fell 0.57% q/q, government consumption by 1.7%, and gross capital...

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