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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Chasing after Inflationary Winds
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 Jul 2014

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) raised the repo rate by 25 basis points today. Governor Marcus stated that despite the predicament of rising inflation and subdued growth, the SARB remained committed to maintaining price stability. Against this backdrop...

The Central bank increases discount rate 3 ppt up to 12.5%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Jul 2014

The National Bank of Ukraine today increased discount rate by 3 ppt up to 12.5% from 9.5% previously. The overnight refinancing rate was increased to 17.5% from 14.5%. The Central bank targets to reduce inflation rates, according to the explanatory note of the regulator. In fact, we see this move...

Skepticism Could Hamper Mining Investment
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 16 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Mining is clearly the Dominican Republic’s most dynamic economic activity. Mineral exports have climbed from less than 0.5% of goods exports in January 2010-March 2011, to more than 4% in April 2011-October 2012, and subsequently to more than 15%. In 2013, metallic minerals expo...

Oil Shortfall Hits Public Finance
MEXICO · Report · 16 Jul 2014

Executive Summary As we have noted in previous issues of Weekly Trends: Mexico Economy, the evolution of public finance in 2014 will be a determining factor in the government’s economic strategy not only this year but for the remainder of the administration. Of particular significance was the fac...

In Need of More Revenue
COLOMBIA · Report · 16 Jul 2014

Executive Summary The plan to phase out the financial transactions and net wealth taxes in 2015, combined with a projected fall in oil production, could force Colombia to seek financing alternatives. The loss of the two taxes will create a 2015 revenue gap equivalent to 1% of GDP, on course to ri...

Economy Slowdown… And The New Administration Meets Fiscal Challenges
PANAMA · Report · 16 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Growth for the first quarter of 2014 was 5.8% YOY according to recent official data. In Q1 2014, the most dynamic sectors of the economy included fishing, construction, mining and quarrying, and transportation and communications. The Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMAE) for Ap...

Mixed Picture on Security Front
MEXICO · Report · 16 Jul 2014

Executive Summary For years public opinion polls have consistently shown that most Mexicans regard insecurity as the main problem facing the country. During the government of ex-President Felipe Calderón (2006-2012) the fight against drug trafficking and criminal violence was by far one of the mo...

Growth and Budget Strengthen, But Debt and Bank Worries Rise
HUNGARY · Forecast · 15 Jul 2014

Executive Summary The key economic issues for Hungary are the momentum of recovery, the fiscal situation, the inflation trajectory and the consequences of government initiatives on banking, reserves, the currency and interest rates. Compared with our April forecast, we expect faster growth, a low...

MPC Pendulum Swaying Towards a Rate Hike
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 14 Jul 2014

The outlook on South Africa’s consumer price inflation has deteriorated more than the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) had anticipated. Meanwhile, South Africa’s economic growth outlook has suffered and continues to do so as a result of, inter alia, labor-related production stoppages. Despite th...

More Signals of Falling Industrial Production
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Jul 2014

Although the unemployment rate remains at a historically low level, the job market is clearly weakening. Net hiring has been virtually stagnant and the jobless rate only has been holding steady because of the decline in the participation rate, which annuls the growth of the labor force (economica...

How Far can the Central Bank go to Secure the Exchange Rate?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Jul 2014

Executive Summary In situations where the exchange rate is near equilibrium (the current account deficits are being financed by capital inflows not artificially stimulated), but is highly volatile, interventions in the foreign exchange market are perfectly acceptable. They dampen the volatilit...

Political Insights: Week of July 14
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Jul 2014

A busy week in Congress: The House could vote on the Provisional Measure (MP) that deals with the commercialization of electric energy and changes in taxation for the beverage sector.Congress may also analyze the bill to revoke the decree creating the National Social Participation Policy. The end...

Indonesia’s Presidential Election: Waiting for the Final Verdict
INDONESIA · In Brief · 13 Jul 2014

The Indonesian Presidential Election was successfully done on July 9, 2014. There was no report of any major incidents related to the election. Even though the tension was very high during the campaigning period, yet there was no report of any horizontal conflicts between the supporters of the tw...

Weekly Tracker: July 13-19
TURKEY · Report · 13 Jul 2014

Executive Summary The presidential race witnessed the rapid rise of HDP candidate Mr. Demirtas to the status of left-wing favorite, as Erdogan and Ihsanoglu not only put forth opposing visions, but campaign strategies as well.After all that has been said and done, with one exception, polls point ...

Clashes at the Russian Border Become Tougher
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Jul 2014

Over the last few days clashes at the border with Russia became really tough. After surrender of Slovyansk, the city which Moscow propaganda made a symbol of ‘rebel’, Kremlin intensified its activity in this undeclared war. Ukrainian army is trying to encircle the region and to close the border. ...

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