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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

This is in reply to a question by one of our readers
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Aug 2014

I thought the question is the minds of many and my answer may shed light on two important issues: Q: what is the likelihood of an early parliamentary election? should we expect that if Erdogan does well in the presidential and he does not announce an early parliamentary, we will see lower pressur...

Energy Reform
MEXICO · Report · 05 Aug 2014

Executive Summary A series of reforms to the Mexican Constitution regarding the energy sector appeared in the December 20, 2013 issue of the Diario Oficial de la Federación, the federal government’s daily gazette, and took effect on December 21, 2013. They legally codified changes to articles 25,...

Houston, We Have a Problem
TURKEY · Report · 04 Aug 2014

Consumer price inflation in July surprised on the upside coming in at 0.45%, versus consensus expectation of a modest drop of 0.1%.This has pushed the 12-month rate slightly higher to 9.3%, from 9.2% in June. Producer price inflation eased somewhat to 9.5%, probably largely owing to a more stable...

Conflicting Debt Target and Policies
HUNGARY · Report · 04 Aug 2014

Executive Summary This month, our focus is on the recent official measures on the budget, central bank interest rates and FX debt. A similarly important story is the continuation of the domestic banking saga, including compensations payable by banks to borrowers, the planned conversion of the FX ...

Political Insights: Week of August 4
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Aug 2014

This week there will be a concentrated effort in Congress, with important bills on the agenda.The accusations made by Veja magazine that Petrobras CPI questions were previously sent to participants should dominate the debates with the return of legislative activity.Presidential candidates partici...

Fragmentation will Help the PRI
MEXICO · Report · 04 Aug 2014

Executive Summary July indicators point to a further firming of the economy, along with evidence that an expansive fiscal policy has yet to produce its desired effects.Employment and real wages have risen steadily since January 1st, and it appears that GDP growth accelerated an estimated 2.1% in ...

The Risks and Politics
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Aug 2014

The industrial output data for June virtually guaranteed that GDP will contract in the second quarter of 2014, and that the Brazilian economy is very near recession. Certainly the drawdown of inventories accentuated the drop in the production of durables (for instance, automobile stocks are at re...

The Politics of Growth Targeting
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 04 Aug 2014

Executive SummaryThe investigation into Zhou Yongkang, announced last week but expected for months, is the most important political event in China since the related Bo Xilai scandal in 2012. It may confirm that President Xi Jinping and his followers have managed to centralize power far more than ...

Growth Can Hit Official Targets
CHINA · Forecast · 03 Aug 2014

Executive Summary We can see the possibility of a growth rebound, after the government raised investment, and cut the reserve requirement ratio for banks, at the end of June. Though the real economy hasn’t yet seen any impact, both public spending and the money supply immediately rose. Econ...

Brief Political Update on Id Developments
TURKEY · Report · 01 Aug 2014

I intended to hold my fire until our Monthly Report is completed by around the middle of next week, but the sudden flare-up of panic in GEM compelled me to comment on the recent political developments. Our very own Cosmic Strategist asserts that when risk appetite is down, investors begin to scru...

A Scandal-Slowdown Blend
PERU · Report · 01 Aug 2014

Executive Summary Though just five months have elapsed since the fifth cabinet was sworn in, last week an embattled Prime Minister Rene Cornejo was forced to resign. Simultaneously, President Ollanta Humala and First Lady Nadine Heredia succeeded in getting their handpicked candidate, Ana Maria S...

Costa Rica: Central Bank announces the revision of its Macroeconomic Program 2014-2015
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 31 Jul 2014

As stated by law, the Central Bank of Costa Rica announced today the revision of its Macroeconomic Program for the rest of 2014 and 2015. The Bank kept its inflation target range at 4.0% ± 1.0 p.p. for 2014 and 2015. In general terms, the outlook calls for slightly lower growth but higher disequi...

Default it is, is it not?
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 31 Jul 2014

The fact that the Economic Minister, Axel Kiciloff, joined yesterday the Argentine negotiation team and that local banks declared that they are willing to make an offer to buy Holdout’s legal claims, suggested that the likelihood of a temporary agreement to reinstall the “stay order” until the en...

A Last-Ditch Attempt to Overturn the Elections
INDONESIA · Report · 31 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s presidential win at first looked like a happy ending. The vote count was completed on July 22, and the General Election Commission pronounced him the winner. The president-elect then gave a victory speech from Sulawesi, from the deck of a traditional me...

Maduro Courts His Base
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Nicolás Maduro and his government are trying to control chavismo’s political levers to shape their own power structures and obtain support to carry out partial economic reforms. We don’t know whether he will succeed. The chavista base is unhappy. And the III PSUV Congress, conve...

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