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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Guatemala: Lackluster
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Jul 2014

Executive SummaryQ1 news wasn’t especially happy, though preliminary data delivered no real surprises. GDP growth was estimated at 3.4% y/y, at the lower end of Bank of Guatemala’s 3.3%-3.9% growth forecast for full year 2014. The current account deficit closed at $296 million, well above the $14...

Default It Is, Is It Not?
ARGENTINA · Report · 31 Jul 2014

This Market Brief was originally issued on July 31, 2014 as a post on GSP Direct, the GlobalSource Partners interactive webtool providing clients an initial response to breaking news and developments. The fact that the Economic Minister, Axel Kiciloff, joined the Argentine negotiation team yester...

Parliament approves budget amendments, Yatsenyuk remains PM
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Jul 2014

Today parliament approved two important decisions. The first one was approval of budget amendments which are critical for further IMF cooperation. The second one – MPs declined Arseniy Yatsenyuk resignation. Against this backdrop, we can claim that recent political crisis was resolved. Important,...

Policy rates hiked
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 31 Jul 2014

After holding policy rates steady since October 2012, the BSP today raised its overnight borrowing and lending rates by 25 bp to 3.75% and 5.75%, respectively. It explained the rate hike as a "preemptive move" to safeguard 2015 inflation which it forecasts to reach 3.7%, near the upper end of its...

GDP falls 4.7% y/y in 2Q 2014
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Jul 2014

In 2Q 2014 Ukraine’s GDP declined 4.7% y/y State Statistics Office reported on July 30. Also the authorities estimated GDP sliding 5.9% y/y in June vs. 4.9% y/y in May. For the first half of the year GDP was estimated to fall 3.0% y/y, according to Minecon. By the end of the year the Cabinet anti...

Punishing Russia, without Triggering WWIII
UKRAINE · Report · 29 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Despite all Ukraine’s difficulties, the latest the collapse of its ruling coalition, it looks as though the country is winning the war with Russia in terms of international community support. It’s a challenging conflict, and the renewed internal political fight in Kyiv doesn’t b...

Bringing State Investment Back to Normal
CHINA · Report · 28 Jul 2014

Executive Summary In June the government increased investment, and lowered the reserve requirement ratio for banks. Instantly, fiscal spending and the money supply rose. Though the real economy has not been affected (when taking the lagged effect into account), a future rebound is certainly po...

Current Account: Temporary Relief Due to the World Cup
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Jul 2014

The balance of payments accumulated over the past 12 months in June showed the smallest deficit since September last year, -US$ 5.2 billion, a result a small dip in the current account deficit to US$ 81 billion and an increase in the surplus in the financial capital account to US$ 76 billion (Gra...

Monetary Policy on the High Wire
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Jul 2014

There was a good deal of suspense regarding the minutes of the last COPOM meeting. Since inflation continues hovering near the top of the target interval and there are substantial repressed pressures both from the temporary stability of the real and delayed adjustments of administered prices, it ...

Political Insights: Week of July 28
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jul 2014

The presidential race starts to gain space in the political agenda: The first event featuring the participation of the three main presidential candidates is scheduled for this week. The event is organized by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI), and the candidates will discuss proposals f...

A good day for government
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Jul 2014

1. The National Government turned in a whopping 50% increase in non-interest expenditures in June, bringing the 2Q14 total up 12% over 2Q13. This is very encouraging in terms of our 2Q14 economic growth outlook. Also announced today, the President approved rehabilitation plans for areas affected ...

Clearer Waters Rising
CHILE · Report · 25 Jul 2014

Executive Summary It is fair to say that the winds are starting to blow in the direction of a recovery in coming quarters. The wide agreement around the main points of the tax reform is good news. But, at the same time, it is hard to agree with some economists that claim that they are beginnin...

Yatsenyuk refuses to be acting Prime Minister, Volodymyr Groysman takes the lead
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 Jul 2014

According to the law the Cabinet after resignation continues its work as acting Cabinet till the moment the parliament approves the decision and appoints new Prime Minister. Under current circumstances Arseniy Yatsenyuk refused to continue his work and Volodymyr Groysman, Deputy Prime Minister fo...

Singing Bob Marley in Ankara
TURKEY · Report · 24 Jul 2014

Don't worry about a thing,'Cause every little thing gonna be alright.Rise up this mornin',Smiled with the risin' sun,Three little birdsPitch by my doorstepSingin' sweet songsOf melodies pure and true,Saying', "This is my message to you"…Governor Basci presented the third Inflation Report of the y...

Yatsenyuk Resigns on Failed Attempt to Increase Taxes for Oligarchs
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 Jul 2014

Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk resigned after coalition was dissolved. This move in light of tense situation at the east might look strange. But only from the first glance. Few days ago after the IMF mission left Kyiv the Cabinet came out with the proposal of budget revision. And the main role ...

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