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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

What’s Maduro’s Plan?
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 Aug 2014

Executive Summary To say that there’s a “Nicolas Maduro Plan” for the economy is an overstatement. Moreover, insofar as one does exist, we think little of it will be implemented beyond gasoline price hikes. It’s hard to describe the “Maduro Plan” because the government is trying to avoid the impr...

Damage Control
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 21 Aug 2014

In line with what might have been expected[1], the confirmation of Argentina’s legally induced default of its exchanged bonds issued under foreign law convinced the government to move ahead with “damage control” measures ahead of a complex debt negotiation scenario next year. Although the governm...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Aug 2014

Beto will help with Marina’s relationships with the PSB and agribusiness The choice of federal representative Beto Albuquerque (PSB-RS) as Marina Silva’s running mate is important for two reasons.First, he can contribute by bringing Marina closer to the party, whose leadership has reservations ab...

Robust Growth, without Fiscal Surprises
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 19 Aug 2014

Executive Summary GDP growth rose an impressive 5.2% in H1, according to new Central Bank data, the largest expansion for a single semester since 2010. Accumulated inflation reached 1.93%, while y/y inflation was 3.41%, well below the lower limit of the Central Bank’s 2014 target range (4.5% ± 1%...

Oversight and the Price of Congress
MEXICO · Report · 19 Aug 2014

Executive Summary Much has been written about the high cost of Mexican democracy, including the funds needed to sustain the Mexican Congress. Part of the problem stems from the fact that the legislative branch acts as both judge and jury when allocating public funds. There has been a considerable...

Domestic Savings at Midyear
MEXICO · Report · 19 Aug 2014

Executive Summary Domestic financial savings in Mexico began to recover in the second quarter of 2014 as the public deposited funds with their banks at a greater rate than in either 2013 or the first quarter of 2014. That increase in deposits was achieved despite the fact that real term interest ...

Industry: Slumps 12.1% in July
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Aug 2014

In July industrial output fell 12.1% y/y twice as fast than a month ago (-5.0% y/y in June). Stronger contraction of metals’ output (-12.3% y/y vs. 5.6% y/y at the prior month), mining (-12.1% y/y vs. -4.8% y/y in June) and utilities (-7.8% y/y vs. -1.5% y/y) were the main reasons for sliding rat...

Bad news about the government debt ratio
HUNGARY · In Brief · 18 Aug 2014

Fact: The government debt ratio, as calculated by the MNB according to Eurostat standards, rose to 85.1% of GDP by June 2014 from 79.4% in December 2013, to a level that is nearly as high as a peak 85.6% in the middle of 2010. Significance: The government has always claimed that reducing the gove...

On The Verge of Recession
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Aug 2014

In June, the IBC-Br, which is a proxy for monthly GDP calculated by the Central Bank, fell 1.5%. With this, the decline in the second quarter was 1.2%, and this is a good estimate of what the GDP figures will show for the quarter (Graph 1). Worse than the magnitude of the drop are its characteris...

Political Insights: Week of August 18
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Aug 2014

The elections enter a new phase with important events scheduled for this week.Free electoral ads on radio and TV begin on Tuesday, August 19. The following day, the PSB will confirm Marina Silva as Eduardo Campos’ replacement in the presidential race.President Dilma Rousseff and PSC candidate Pas...

An Urgent Search for Funds
ECUADOR · Forecast · 18 Aug 2014

Executive SummaryThe gauge in the Treasury’s coffers veered toward empty, with just $348 million in cash on average between January and May, down from $1.25 billion during the same period last year. Unsurprisingly, the government is aggressively campaigning to control liquidity. The new Monetary ...

Crunch time in Turkish politics
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Aug 2014

While Erdogan easily rode to the presidency on the back of a 51.8% majority, the task of transition and succession in the party is turning out to be more arduous. In this Brief, I’m updating my predictions for the new AKP chairman and key cabinet posts, while the Cosmic Dude barges in with his il...

The Road to the 2015 Elections
MEXICO · Report · 15 Aug 2014

Executive Summary All political parties will be focusing their attention between now and next summer on the 2015 federal elections, in which all 500 seats in the Chamber of Deputies will be up for election, as well as state and municipal offices in 15 states. The electoral calendar starts when el...

How to Raise the Minimum Wage
MEXICO · Report · 15 Aug 2014

Executive Summary The country’s minimum wage has emerged as a major topic in the national political debate in recent days. Mexico is the only Latin American country in which the minimum wage is below the extreme poverty line, according to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbea...

CPI, GDP data: Too much of rain and a stronger than expected economy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Aug 2014

Facts: 1. July CPI-inflation was 0.2% mom / 0.1% yoy, the latter up from -0.3% in June; 2. Q2 GDP (preliminary, sda) was up 0.8% qoq / 3.7% yoy, after 1.1% qoq / 3.2% yoy. Both CPI and GDP were somewhat stronger than expected. Significance: 1. Some say that the short period of negative inflation ...

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