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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Sep 2014

CNI/Ibope Confirms Results of Other Polls The CNI/Ibope poll released today confirms what previous polls have shown: 1) Dilma leads in the first round; 2) Marina and Dilma are technically tied in the second round; and 3) Evaluations of the government have improved. Dilma’s improvement shown in th...

A Mountain of Discord
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 12 Sep 2014

Executive Summary After months of social mobilization, a heated national debate and hectic activity in the legislature, Congress passed a law declaring Miranda Hill a national park. Miranda Hill is a mountain in the central mountain range, and the origin of the country’s most important rivers. Th...

Difficulties on Inflation and Monetary Policy
INDIA · Report · 11 Sep 2014

Executive Summary It is widely believed that Governor Rajan is more hawkish on inflation. But the policy rate, expressed in real terms, is not higher in his first year when compared with the previous two years. Monetary policy must choose between inflation policy and exchange rate policy, and the...

How Might A China Slowdown Affect The World?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 11 Sep 2014

Executive Summary Recent statements by Li Keqiang, China’s Premier, suggest that lower GDP growth will not cause Beijing the kind of anxiety it has in the past, and that the leadership is willing to tolerate it as long as they believe unemployment is manageable. The market seems to be interpretin...

Congress Approved Debt Swap
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 11 Sep 2014

Minutes ago the Lower House approved the bill to reopen de debt swap with 134 votes in favor and 99 against. In our last market brief “Damage Control”, we briefly discussed the government’s main objectives regarding the debt-swap-reopening initiative: i.e. to allow debt holders to swap out of US ...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Sep 2014

Dilma and Marina in Dead Heat The Datafolha poll showed that, at least so far, Dilma Rousseff’s (PT) attacks on Marina Silva (PSB) are working.In the first round, the impact is modest.In the second, it’s a little greater.Two weeks ago, Dilma Rousseff (PT) and Marina were tied (34%, each).Today, t...

Congress Approved Debt Swap
ARGENTINA · Report · 11 Sep 2014

Minutes ago the Lower House approved the bill to reopen de debt swap with 134 votes in favor and 99 against. In our last market brief “Damage Control”, we briefly discussed the government’s main objectives regarding the debt-swap-reopening initiative: i.e. to allow debt holders to swap out of US ...

Another Rate Hike Expected
PHILIPPINES · Report · 10 Sep 2014

The consensus predicts that the Monetary Board (MB), which meets tomorrow, will raise either or both the SDA and the policy rates by another 25bp.According to market players, this view has already been fully priced into current bond yields.If the MB does hike rates, it would be its fourth tighten...

Cost of Rebalancing Becomes Apparent
TURKEY · Report · 10 Sep 2014

Turkish economy expanded by a weaker than expected 2.1% in Q2 (y/y), and shrank by 0.5% over Q1 (Table 1; Graphs 1-2). Details of the data point to broad-based domestic demand weakness, somewhat deeper than we expected, with foreign demand (net exports) saving the day, and contributing 2.9 pps to...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Sep 2014

CNT/MDA poll shows race is still open Dilma Rouseff’s (PT) lead over Marina Silva (PSB) increased slightly in the 1st round, while Marina’s lead decreased in the 2nd round.These are the main results of the CNT/MDA poll conducted on September 5-7, compared to the poll conducted on August 21-25. TA...

Expect Tough Talks in Congress
MEXICO · Report · 09 Sep 2014

Executive Summary When President Enrique Peña handed Congress his second State of the Nation Report, the first session of the final year of the LXII Legislature formally got underway.In contrast to the fall session of 2013, there will be no discussion of major constitutional reforms, nor any mech...

The fiscal correction that India requires is feasible: Aadhaar and subsidy reform holds the key
INDIA · Report · 09 Sep 2014

The size of the task Last year (i.e. 2013-14 RE), the fiscal deficit was 4.6% of GDP. The fiscal deficit budgeted for 2014-15 is 4.1% of GDP. The budget speech has said that the target for 2015-16 is 3.6% and then the target for 2016-17 is 3% of GDP. For India to achieve macroeconomic stability, ...

‟Gendarming” Cyclical Businesses
MEXICO · Report · 09 Sep 2014

Executive Summary Mexico’s Gendarmerie began operations in recent days as a new division of the Federal Police, an issue we analyzed in the politics section of our most recent monthly report, “Firming Up – But For How Long?” published September 3. The new corps’ mission will be to “protect certai...

The Current Account Balance Deteriorates Substantially In 2014 Q2
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 09 Sep 2014

Official figures released today by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) show that the magnitude of the current account deficit worsened in 2014 Q2, recording a shortfall of R222 billion compared to R161 billion in the preceding quarter – see Table 1. Graph 1 Balance of payments on current accoun...

September Inflation Report
CHILE · Report · 08 Sep 2014

On September 4, the Central Bank released its quarterly Inflation Report. The expected growth rate for 2014 was revised lower, roughly by the amount markets expected. The forecast for 2015 was also in line with expectations. Inflation rates for both December 2014 and 2015 were revised higher and ...

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