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Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Sep 2014

Datafolha: Marina’s rejection increases and she loses votes in the Southeast The Datafolha poll released today presents four important pieces of information: 1) Dilma Rousseff has expanded her lead over Marina in the 1st round; 2) Although the PT and PSB candidates are still tied in the 2nd round...

A Solid Budget Proposal
MEXICO · Report · 19 Sep 2014

Executive Summary The Ministry of Finance handed Congress on Friday, September 5 its budget proposals for 2015, which include the General Economic Policy Criteria for the year, a text that contains the economic and financial assumptions on which all budget proposals are predicated, as well as the...

New Mechanics of Overcoming Distrust
MEXICO · Report · 19 Sep 2014

Executive Summary Throughout the final 70 years the 20th century, the PRI was the perennially incumbent party, one that enjoyed the full support of every outgoing administration and free rein in deploying public funds to assure its perpetual hold on power. As smaller parties slowly were allowed t...

Repo Rate on Hold despite Mounting CPI
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 19 Sep 2014

As she tabled her last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) statement of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), Governor Gill Marcus left the repo rate unchanged at 5.75% per year. However, she cautioned of increasing upside risks to inflation on the back of a weak exchange rate. The Bank highlighted ...

An Express Lane to “Quick Wins”
INDONESIA · Report · 17 Sep 2014

Executive Summary After taking the oath of office on October 20th, President-elect Joko “Jokowi” Widodo will have to quickly announce his dream team – his cabinet. He’ll also have to introduce the most appealing initiatives, able to win the hearts of not only his supporters, but also of the na...

Worrisome Signals in 2Q GDP Performance
COLOMBIA · Report · 17 Sep 2014

Economic activity expanded by 4.3% in Q2, slowing relative to Q1, when it grew by an outstanding (given the state of the world economy) 6.5%. There were few surprises in this result. Construction remains the most dynamic sector, while housing construction (excluding “social purpose” public housin...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Sep 2014

Vox Populi Confirms Previous Results The Vox Populi poll released yesterday, September 15, presents a scenario in which Dilma Rousseff (PT) and Marina Silva (PSB) are tied, the same scenario registered in last week’s polls.The president leads in the first round. The PSB candidate leads in the sec...

It's Been a Cold, Cold Winter
CHILE · Report · 16 Sep 2014

Executive Summary Pessimism in Chile is rising, with economists and business leaders increasingly blaming the government for the economic slowdown. Most analysts have lowered their growth estimates, as have the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance. We, however, are far from agreeing w...

Donbas special status law – will it end the war?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Sep 2014

Today the parliament voted in law on special status of Donbas. With this law Ukraine approves Transnistria-style gray zone on its territory. From this law we do not have clear vision how relations will be organized but very likely Ukraine will pay some money from the budget for maintenance of the...

The German Forces against the Cárdenas-Maginot Line
COLOMBIA · Report · 15 Sep 2014

Executive Summary The test of the new governance layer that added Nestor Humberto Martínez as minister to the presidency will come sooner than expected: the proposed 2015 budget presents tough fiscal and political dilemmas. A crucial test will be defending the fiscal rule (a kind of fiscal Magino...

Political Insights: Week of September 15
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Sep 2014

This week promises to be very busy, with important events on the agenda.This Monday the deadline for replacing candidates expires.Thus, the “Return, Lula” movement loses relevance.Aécio Neves (PSDB) launches his government program and tries to create some kind of political momentum.The presidenti...

Alonso Segura is Peru’s New Finance Minister
PERU · Report · 15 Sep 2014

The New Minister After three years as Minister of Finance, Miguel Castilla resigned yesterday. He declared that he was leaving the ministry after five years (he was advisor and then vice-minister during the two last years of Alan Garcia’s administration) and was replaced by his chief advisor for ...

Activity: Far From a Sustained Recovery
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Sep 2014

The proxy for GDP estimated by the Central Bank (IBC-Br) for July rose by 1.5% in relation to June (Graph 1). This was an impressive result, leaving a carry-over of 0.3% to the third quarter. At first glance this might suggest an inflection point in the economic activity trend line. However, this...

Weekly Tracker: September 14-20
TURKEY · Report · 14 Sep 2014

Executive Summary The politics section starts with sketching the “Big Picture”, which predicts that Turkey will be stuck between two major conflicts and forced to choose sides at the expense of its diplomatic flexibility and economic expansion. We argue that unless Turkey fully cooperates, there ...

The legal issue on banking: status report
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Sep 2014

Fact: The government's legal initiative against domestic banks, regarding household loans, is moving ahead with full steam both in the courts and in further legislative work. Recent key events are the following: (1) Courts have issued first-instance rulings so far on 29 out of a total 79 cases in...

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