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The Brazilian Economy at a Crossroads
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Oct 2014

Executive Summary The new government, whichever candidate wins the presidential runoff, will have to face at least four challenges: a) renewed growth; b) fiscal control; c) reduction of the current account deficit, allowing the real to depreciate; and d) control of inflation. Achieving all the...

Brazil in the Global Context: IMF View in the Most Recent WEO
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Oct 2014

Last week the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published the most recent edition of the World Economic Outlook, with revised forecasts for economic growth of various countries (Table 1). World GDP should expand by 3.3% in 2014 (a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point), with growth of 1.8% in...

Weekly Tracker: October 12-18
TURKEY · Report · 12 Oct 2014

Executive Summary In this Economics-only Tracker, we review our take on the government’s new Medium Term Program, including a correction of an oversight on our part. We also touch upon the recent comments from the Fitch and the IMF.The former kept Turkey’s sovereign rating at investment grade, wh...

Hints of Stagflation
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 11 Oct 2014

In September 2014, the Kagiso Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) recorded 50.7 index points; up from 49.0 points in August 2014. A reading above 50 points suggests a quickening in the tempo of economic activity. However, the headline September print of the PMI calls for caution as far as making a p...

Economics and Politics, 140 days into the BJP Government
INDIA · Report · 10 Oct 2014

Executive Summary The defining issue in India’s business cycle downturn has been weakness in investment. This has been shaped by difficulties in implementing projects, and in the gloom of firms that felt future profitability was not going to be good. Reviving investment is a central priority of t...

Panama is Now Officially a “Tax Haven” from Colombia’s Perspective
PANAMA · Report · 10 Oct 2014

On October 7, the Santos Administration included Panama in the list of “fiscal paradises” (in the company of Barbados, UAE, Kuwait and Qatar) because the Martinelli administration and now the Varela Government have not signed the exchange of information agreement between Colombia and Panama. Colo...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Oct 2014

Datafolha and Ibope: Aécio and Dilma Tied Aécio Neves (PSDB) and Dilma Rousseff (PT) are technically tied in the first Datafolha and Ibope polls.However, the PSDB candidate has the numerical advantage (2 percentage points). The race is close, but these early moments favor Aécio for the following ...

Weaker Growth Amid Regional Discord
PERU · Report · 10 Oct 2014

Executive SummaryThe great surprise of the October 5th regional and local elections was the landslide of Cajamarca regional president Gregorio Santos, in jail on corruption charges. The results revived fears that this key mining territory will have protracted problems developing its vast resource...

Strong Growth in Q2, But Slowdown Has Started Already
HUNGARY · Forecast · 09 Oct 2014

Executive Summary In late September, the Central Statistical Office announced a revision of national accounts and government sector data, as part of a transition to ESA2010, Eurostat’s new methodological standard. So far, only part of the new data has been presented, and as a result, a fully cons...

The MTP of Diminished Expectations
TURKEY · Report · 09 Oct 2014

The government announced the Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2015-17 yesterday, in a timely manner. This is typically done before the submission of the budget to parliament, by the constitutionally-set deadline of October 17th. Despite its shortcomings, the MTP is a very useful document that lays o...

Energy Reform: An Analysis Of Its Fiscal Implications
MEXICO · Report · 08 Oct 2014

Executive SummaryA series of changes to articles 25, 27 and 28 of the Mexican Constitution regarding the energy sector that constitute part of the country’s broader energy reform appeared in the December 20, 2013 issue of the Diario Oficial de la Federación, the federal government’s daily gazette...

Productivity Lags, Wages More So
MEXICO · Report · 08 Oct 2014

Executive Summary Labor productivity per hour worked in Mexico has showed relatively lackluster growth over the past five years, having risen by only 10% since the first quarter of 2009 largely on the strength of a 12% increase in activity in the dominant service sector. Productivity in the indus...

Violent Threats to Governability
MEXICO · Report · 08 Oct 2014

Executive Summary In recent weeks a number of violent incidents, as well as the emergence of a student movement at the second most important public institution of higher learning in Mexico, have tested the government’s ability to guarantee the security of Mexican citizens and to avoid head-on con...

Will the Presidency Remain Effective?
INDONESIA · Report · 08 Oct 2014

Drama in Indonesian politics came again yesterday, October 7, 2014. In the election of the Speaker and the Deputies of the People’s Consultative Assembly, the political body that in the past elected the President and Vice President, Jokowi’s Camp lost. With that loss, Prabowo’s Camp has swept pra...

​Heads up: Violent Kobane protests could shake markets
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Oct 2014

I had originally intended to update our audience with a long Market Brief on Turkey’s three conditions to deploy ground troops against ISIS. The violent protests in defense of Syrian Kurdish town Kobane that erupted across the nation last night completely changed the agenda. Turkey is waking up t...

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