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Despondent Outlook for the World Economy and the Reflections in Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Oct 2014

There is a climate of despondency in the global economy. Political disturbances have been heightening investors’ risk aversion, triggering a decline in the quotations of 10-year Treasuries. Along with this, concerns have been growing over the risks of deceleration of the international economy. Th...

Weekly Tracker: October 19-25
TURKEY · Report · 19 Oct 2014

Executive Summary This week’s Tracker consists of a brief overview of the latest data releases, a preview of the upcoming MPC meeting and a lengthy essay by the wily Cosmic Strategist. On the political side, there is not much to add to what we’ve already said during the week. Please take a look a...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Oct 2014

Heated debate on SBT was positive for Aécio Aécio Neves (PSDB) fared better than Dilma Rousseff (PT) in the debate aired yesterday on SBT.Unlike the TV Bandeirantes (Oct. 14) debate, when he was on the defensive, Aécio was able to explore issues on the economic agenda (increased inflation and low...

The Exorbitant Burden and The Scariest Graph in The World
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Oct 2014

Last year I presented in this newsletter what I called “the scariest graph in the world”. It showed how some EU policymakers were expecting Europe to rebalance demand. The graph showed Europe’s current account surplus surging to 2-6% of Europe’s GDP. In the newsletter I argued that this “solution...

When Lawyers Rule
COLOMBIA · Report · 17 Oct 2014

Executive SummaryLawyers have dominated the Colombian landscape since independence from Spain. They explain a substantial portion of Colombian relative institutional stability; they currently want to re-established equilibrium between branches of government power, i.e. judiciary, legislative and ...

Spending Less, to Pay More Debt
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 17 Oct 2014

Executive Summary The proposed federal budget for 2015 is more restrictive than last year’s: though spending would rise 2.9%, primary spending is projected to fall, both in real and GDP terms, as the government aims to slice the non-financial public sector deficit, cut public investment spending ...

Turkey and ISIS: There is No Light at the End of this Tunnel
TURKEY · Report · 16 Oct 2014

Executive SummaryThe sudden jihad war declared by ISIS in Iraq and Syria, countered by the increasing resolve of major Western powers to destroy it, presents the AKP government with the thorniest challenges of its 11 year administration. Since the Turkey-ISIS relationship is highly complex, the S...

Challenging Partnerships
PHILIPPINES · Report · 16 Oct 2014

Executive SummaryAfter a false start in 2010, the Aquino administration’s flagship PPP program has finally roared to life. Several large projects have been auctioned off under seemingly competitive conditions which, contrary to model forecasts, yielded substantial revenues for government. Moreove...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Oct 2014

A Balanced Debate on TV Bandeirantes The TV Bandeirantes debate conducted yesterday, October 14, ahead of the second round presidential election, was balanced.Dilma Rousseff (PT) was able to put Aécio Neves (PSDB) on the defensive at times, by bringing up controversial issues tied to his time as ...

Education, Labor Reforms Fall Short
MEXICO · Report · 14 Oct 2014

Executive Summary Among the many reforms that were adopted in the past 18 months two are of special importance to the future of education and the labor market in Mexico.But the reform designed to improve the quality of public education and the reform intended to create more flexible labor markets...

Iguala, No Security Strategy in Sight
MEXICO · Report · 14 Oct 2014

Executive Summary Evidence continues to grow that the September 26 attack on students from a rural teachers’ college in the city of Iguala, Guerrero, was carried out by municipal police in coordination with organized crime.The initial toll includes six people killed, three of whom were students a...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Oct 2014

Vox Populi confirms tie between Dilma and Aécio The Vox Populi poll released Monday evening, October 13, by TV Record confirms the technical tie between Dilma Rousseff (PT) and Aécio Neves (PSDB), similar to the Datafolha and Ibope polls last week.The difference is that in the Vox Populi poll, Di...

Political Insights: Week of October 14
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Oct 2014

This week, two presidential debates between Dilma Rousseff (PT) and Aécio Neves (PSDB) will take place: the first will air on Tuesday, October 14, on TV Bandeirantes and the second on Thursday, October 16 on SBT.Three new polls will be released, but none will include the impact of the debates on ...

Ankara’s twin crisis: Pentagon request rebuffed, PKK returns to insurgency
TURKEY · In Brief · 13 Oct 2014

Painful cluster headaches held me back from contributing to the Weekly Tracker hence I’m issuing this brief note on two recent developments in lieu of an apology. On Tuesday, I'll address a conference call through GlobalSourcePartners to articulate my longer-term views and predictions on how the ...

Long election season ends with Fidesz-KDNP's victory at the nationwide local elections yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Oct 2014

Fact: The governing Fidesz-KDNP won nationwide local elections with a convincing margin yesterday. This vote was a mirror image of the parliamentary election in April, in so far as in both cases, Fidesz-KDNP's results were moderately worse than four years ago, but only compared to their very stro...

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