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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Shifting Sands
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 14 Nov 2014

Executive SummaryOnce again, greater uncertainty is spreading through world financial markets as players are forced to feel their way through changing monetary policy stances in advanced economies. Our baseline view of above 6% GDP growth for 2014 and 2015 is based on expectations that external d...

Inflation rises to 70 percent in October
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Nov 2014

In the absence of BCV inflation data, we continue analyzing inflation using the food basket data published by the Center for Documentation and Social Analysis of the Venezuelan Federation of Teachers (Cendas).We estimate that the month-on-month National CPI inflation accelerated to 6.3 percent in...

Slumping Oil and Public Finance
MEXICO · Report · 12 Nov 2014

Executive Summary A series of recent economic indicators suggested a degree of activity during the third quarter shy of what most analysts had been projecting, albeit a firmer level than we witnessed early in the year. Median market estimates of GDP growth for full-year 2014 slipped to 2.3% in Ba...

Security and Rule of Law Top the Agenda
MEXICO · Report · 12 Nov 2014

Executive Summary Last week the authorities announced two major developments in the case of the 43 Ayotzinapa students. The first was the arrest of the two top suspects in the case: the former mayor of the city where the students “disappeared”, along with his politically powerful wife. Although i...

Growth Rate Is Lower Than Targeted
CHINA · Forecast · 10 Nov 2014

Executive Summary Our growth projection for 2014 falls between the government’s 7.5% forecast, and the lower projection of our pessimistic peers: we foresee 2014 growth at 7.4%. Though GDP grew 7.3% y/y in Q3, down just 0.2 pps from Q2, China’s main economic indicators suggested that the true ...

Draft Budget Lacks Policy Turn
HUNGARY · Report · 10 Nov 2014

Executive Summary Monthly indicators reflect still significant growth but also a marked slowdown in industry and construction, exports, wages and retail sales. This cooling trend started 4-5 months ago, and it will likely be reinforced by a weakening Europe and post-election fiscal tightening in ...

Political Insights: Week of November 10
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Nov 2014

The House and Senate will examine important matters this week:The House may vote on the compulsory budget, and Senators could vote on the validation of fiscal benefits given to states without the approval of Confaz.Dilma takes her first international trip after her reelection.She will participate...

A New Decline in Industrial Production
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Nov 2014

Industrial output fell 0.2% in September, completing the fifth straight quarter of contraction (Graph 1). The decline observed in the third quarter was smaller than in the second (-0.2% versus -1.9%), which will lead to better GDP performance in the third quarter than in the second (-0.6%). All t...

Gross international reserves plunged 23.2% down to $12.6 billion in October
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Nov 2014

In October gross international reserves plummeted by $ 3.8 billion down to $12.6 billion, the Central bank reported on Nov. 7. The decline appeared much stronger than expected. We recognized that $1.6 billion redemption on Naftogaz Eurobonds and state debt redemptions (including $233 million to t...

Moody's improved outlook to stable from negative for Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Nov 2014

Fact: Moody's improved outlook to stable from negative on its Ba1 government bond rating for Hungary yesterday. The Hungarian sovereign has BB+ from Fitch Ratings and BB from Standard & Poor's on its long-term debt. Moody's based its decision on the following drivers: 1) Improving medium-term eco...

Pressures and Risks
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 07 Nov 2014

Instead of using the annual Valdai forum to explain Russia to international experts and journalists, President Putin made it a platform for expressing and spreading his worldview. Russia is criticizing the current global leadership model and the US for being irresponsible with its global power. ...

Lula as Political Coordinator
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Nov 2014

Former president Lula met with PT senators on Thursday, November 6, to discuss the post-electoral agenda, playing the part of the political coordinator for President Dilma’s second term.It was his second intervention this week. On Tuesday, he came to Brasília for a six-hour talk with President Di...

Minimum wage increase: 15%
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 05 Nov 2014

On November 3, President Nicolas Maduro decreed a 15 percent increase in the minimum wage effective December 1, 2014, within the range we predicted. He also raised the basis for calculating the food bonus to 75 percent of the Tax Unit (UT) from 50 percent, and announced an adjustment in the publi...

A Battered Image
MEXICO · Report · 05 Nov 2014

Executive SummaryIndicators published in October continued to offer mixed signals about the direction of the Mexican economy. The monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) for August showed only a 1.3% activity increase y/y, down from 2.3% between May and July. Both industrial and service sector growth slowed. Th...

The Global Savings Constraint
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 05 Nov 2014

Special points to highlight in this issue:China, and probably Japan, exist in a “neo-Fisherian” world in which, contrary to conventional thinking, lower interest rates and a depreciating currency are disinflationary, not inflationary. In economies in which most lending goes into production and mo...

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