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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

June inflation worse than expected
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Jul 2014

Today's June inflation print disappointed, coming in at 0.3% worse than the consensus expectation of a flat reading -- and our somewhat more optimistic forecast of a slightly negative reading. But the culprit, as far as our forecast is concerned, is food prices: we expected, in line with seasonal...

Glimmers of Recovery, Amid Public Distrust
MEXICO · Report · 02 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Recent economic news was mixed, and in some cases surprising. One of the most encouraging reports was the April GDP proxy, which showed an unexpected 1.2% m/m activity increase, and a rise of 2.9% from April 2013. This latter result was the most positive in 16 months. We expect ...

GDP Growth in Q1
COLOMBIA · Report · 02 Jul 2014

The Colombian economy is off to a good start this year as GDP expanded by 6.4% in Q1 (Graph 1), the highest growth rate since 2011. Most analysts – ourselves included – have had to revise their forecasts upwards. The main driver of growth was construction, contributing 1.5 pp to total GDP growth....

Gradual Convergence
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Tensions within chavismo on the eve of the III PSUV Congress are surfacing against a backdrop of widespread social discontent owing to economic hardship. One poll finds that household sentiment is at its lowest since 2003. With Giordani’s exit and signs of a reformist movement w...

Political Insights: Week of July 1
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jul 2014

This Monday is the deadline for political parties to determine their candidates and alliances for the October elections.Aécio Neves will announce his running mate.The candidates will be registered on Saturday.Electoral advertising (radio and TV) will begin on Sunday.A new Datafolha poll on the pr...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jul 2014

The Vice Presidential Candidates Senator and presidential candidate Aécio Neves (PSDB-MG) has confirmed that Senator Aloysio Nunes Ferreira (PSDB-SP) will be the vice presidential candidate on his ticket.Thus, the PSDB will head into the October elections with a “purebred” coalition – one in whic...

Increasing Signs of Recovery amidst Government-Business Disconnect
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Economic news published this past month was decidedly mixed and in a number of cases proved surprising. One of the most encouraging pieces of evidence was the monthly GDP proxy for April, which revealed, after adjusting for seasonal factors and calendar effects, an unexpected se...

Relay Race For SA Labor Demands
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 01 Jul 2014

Barely a week after the end of a prolonged (five-month) industrial action in the platinum industry, a new strike, this time in the metals industry, has just gotten underway. More than 200,000 workers affiliated with the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (NUMSA) embarked today on an “...

Unconstitutional
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 01 Jul 2014

The Supreme Court today declared President Aquino's Disbursement Acceleration Fund (DAP) "partially" unconstitutional. The DAP is a mechanism adopted by the administration to boost economic growth by using unspent funds in the budget for other priority needs within the year. These funds amounted ...

One-sided ‘truce’ ends: martial law expected
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Jul 2014

On June 30, late in the night president Poroshenko cancelled one-sided ‘truce’ with terrorists. Military actions resumed promptly. It was the only correct decision in the situation Ukraine faces now. Russia used the ‘truce’ only to bring more tanks, artillery and ammunition to separatists’ groups...

Jokowi Still Likeliest to Win
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Jun 2014

Executive Summary Campaigning is reaching a frenzied pace in the run-up to the July 9 presidential election. Although campaigning is officially supposed to cease by July 5, that deadline is likely to be ignored, with both leading parties continuing to pursue their agendas, albeit far more quie...

Inflation Report: Acknowledging Higher Inflation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Jun 2014

Central Bank publishes systematically its assessment of the probability that inflation will exceed the upper bound of the target interval in the current year and, more recently, since the end of 2009, publishes the same probability for the following year. This estimate for 2014 is 46% (in the ref...

Weekly Tracker: June 29 -July 6
TURKEY · Report · 29 Jun 2014

Executive Summary We upgrade the odds of an Erdogan victory on the second round of presidential balloting to 80% from 65% previously. We also announce our bet for the new PM. Could Erdogan still loose? Read on! A new Bill to advance the Peace Process gained the endorsement of PKK leader Ocalan, t...

One-sided ‘truce’: first blunder of Poroshenko?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Jun 2014

Last week president Poroshenko announced truce for the sake of peaceful resolution of conflict at the East. In general, this step was perceived skeptically (just as a nod towards the West) since none believes in Kremlin’s desire to resume peace. Putin wants Ukraine to be destabilized and peaceful...

One Step Closer To The Markets, One Step Farther From The Left
ECUADOR · Report · 27 Jun 2014

Executive SummaryThe controversial results –to say the least --of the last sectional elections of February 2014 paired with a tough fiscal situation brought back the pragmatic Correa to the surface once more. After taking a dig to the markets for the last seven years, he brought Ecuador back to W...

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