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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Policy rates hiked
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 31 Jul 2014

After holding policy rates steady since October 2012, the BSP today raised its overnight borrowing and lending rates by 25 bp to 3.75% and 5.75%, respectively. It explained the rate hike as a "preemptive move" to safeguard 2015 inflation which it forecasts to reach 3.7%, near the upper end of its...

GDP falls 4.7% y/y in 2Q 2014
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Jul 2014

In 2Q 2014 Ukraine’s GDP declined 4.7% y/y State Statistics Office reported on July 30. Also the authorities estimated GDP sliding 5.9% y/y in June vs. 4.9% y/y in May. For the first half of the year GDP was estimated to fall 3.0% y/y, according to Minecon. By the end of the year the Cabinet anti...

Punishing Russia, without Triggering WWIII
UKRAINE · Report · 29 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Despite all Ukraine’s difficulties, the latest the collapse of its ruling coalition, it looks as though the country is winning the war with Russia in terms of international community support. It’s a challenging conflict, and the renewed internal political fight in Kyiv doesn’t b...

Bringing State Investment Back to Normal
CHINA · Report · 28 Jul 2014

Executive Summary In June the government increased investment, and lowered the reserve requirement ratio for banks. Instantly, fiscal spending and the money supply rose. Though the real economy has not been affected (when taking the lagged effect into account), a future rebound is certainly po...

Current Account: Temporary Relief Due to the World Cup
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Jul 2014

The balance of payments accumulated over the past 12 months in June showed the smallest deficit since September last year, -US$ 5.2 billion, a result a small dip in the current account deficit to US$ 81 billion and an increase in the surplus in the financial capital account to US$ 76 billion (Gra...

Monetary Policy on the High Wire
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Jul 2014

There was a good deal of suspense regarding the minutes of the last COPOM meeting. Since inflation continues hovering near the top of the target interval and there are substantial repressed pressures both from the temporary stability of the real and delayed adjustments of administered prices, it ...

Political Insights: Week of July 28
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jul 2014

The presidential race starts to gain space in the political agenda: The first event featuring the participation of the three main presidential candidates is scheduled for this week. The event is organized by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI), and the candidates will discuss proposals f...

A good day for government
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Jul 2014

1. The National Government turned in a whopping 50% increase in non-interest expenditures in June, bringing the 2Q14 total up 12% over 2Q13. This is very encouraging in terms of our 2Q14 economic growth outlook. Also announced today, the President approved rehabilitation plans for areas affected ...

Clearer Waters Rising
CHILE · Report · 25 Jul 2014

Executive Summary It is fair to say that the winds are starting to blow in the direction of a recovery in coming quarters. The wide agreement around the main points of the tax reform is good news. But, at the same time, it is hard to agree with some economists that claim that they are beginnin...

Yatsenyuk refuses to be acting Prime Minister, Volodymyr Groysman takes the lead
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 Jul 2014

According to the law the Cabinet after resignation continues its work as acting Cabinet till the moment the parliament approves the decision and appoints new Prime Minister. Under current circumstances Arseniy Yatsenyuk refused to continue his work and Volodymyr Groysman, Deputy Prime Minister fo...

Singing Bob Marley in Ankara
TURKEY · Report · 24 Jul 2014

Don't worry about a thing,'Cause every little thing gonna be alright.Rise up this mornin',Smiled with the risin' sun,Three little birdsPitch by my doorstepSingin' sweet songsOf melodies pure and true,Saying', "This is my message to you"…Governor Basci presented the third Inflation Report of the y...

Yatsenyuk Resigns on Failed Attempt to Increase Taxes for Oligarchs
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 Jul 2014

Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk resigned after coalition was dissolved. This move in light of tense situation at the east might look strange. But only from the first glance. Few days ago after the IMF mission left Kyiv the Cabinet came out with the proposal of budget revision. And the main role ...

Governor Basci as dovish as ever...
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Jul 2014

Governor Basci presented the third Inflation Report of the year today in Ankara. The yearend inflation estimate (midpoint of a 70% band) was kept at 7.6%, as we expected, while the Bank – as it always does but never gets it right – see inflation decelerating to 5% by the end of 2015. A most notab...

President, Legislator, Judge - And Now Banker
ECUADOR · Report · 24 Jul 2014

Executive Summary The long-awaited free trade agreement with the European Union materialized last week, after Minister of External Commerce Francisco Ribadeneira successfully concluded the last round of negotiations in Europe.Though the deal could take 18 months to come into force, it looks certa...

Making Good on Telco Reform
MEXICO · Report · 23 Jul 2014

Executive Summary A Law on Telecommunications and Broadcasting and another on the Mexican State’s Public Broadcasting System were recently passed during a special session of the Mexican Congress, and President Enrique Peña Nieto signed both into law on July 14. With the enactment of these seconda...

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