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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Did Ankara tragedy bring the parties closer?
TURKEY · In Brief · 14 Oct 2015

Once again, I’m using the opportunity provided by a reader in the form of a question to write an update. May I take this opportunity to kindly ask all of our readers to use our website to post their questions to me, Cosmo and Dr Murat Ucer? This is the question: Hi. Clearly the attack was a huge ...

Week of October 13
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Oct 2015

Monday’s holiday will not cool the heated political atmosphere, especially in the House. Lower House President Eduardo Cunha promises to come to a decision regarding the impeachment requests against President Dilma Rousseff. The probability is that he will archive them, but the opposition is mobi...

The Fiscal Disaster and Risk of Populism
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Oct 2015

Brazil needs a broad and deep fiscal policy reform. However, over the past 10 months, the government, politically weakened, has only managed: to place an insufficient amount of budget allocations on contingency; to enact a timid reform of the rules on unemployment insurance, salary bonus and wido...

Dilma Rousseff Government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Oct 2015

51% of federal representatives believe impeachment proceedings will be opened 67% are pessimistic about the likelihood of approval of the CPMF (Provisional Contribution on Financial Transfers) 70% evaluate current economic policy as poor or terrible66% evaluate the relationship between Executive ...

Weekly Tracker: October 11-17
TURKEY · Report · 11 Oct 2015

Ankara was rattled by the largest terror attack in the history of the Republic, which is certain to add to the polarization of the nation and increase the uncertainly of election results. On the foreign policy front, Turkey and Russia are heading towards the biggest crisis since the Cold War, ...

Crusade
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 09 Oct 2015

For the first time in recent history, Russia started a military operation far from its own territory in order to support Syria’s President Assad in his fight against ISIS and other armed opposition groups. The Kremlin’s goals are to support one of the few of the remaining allies, improve its nego...

Dilma Rousseff Government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Oct 2015

In less than one year, President Dilma Rousseff has achieved a record number of political defeats and placed her mandate in serious peril. Five days ago, President Dilma Rousseff announced a political and administrative cabinet reform under the guidance and influence of former President Lula. ...

Dilma Rousseff Government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Oct 2015

The Federal Court of Accounts (TCU) unanimously approved on October 7 the opinion of rapporteur, Augusto Nardes, which recommends that Congress reject President Dilma’s 2014 accounts. Namely, her accounting practices were found to be illegal.

September CPI data changes inflation outlook markedly
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Oct 2015

Falling crude oil prices seem to have been playing to the hands of the MNB's policy of monetary easing recently, just as we pointed out in our mid-September monthly. But there is one big difference between actuals and the inflation outlook we provided in that report: at that time, domestic fuel p...

Economics: Changes in Gasoline Price Regulations
MEXICO · Report · 07 Oct 2015 · 1 response

In its economic package for 2016, the executive branch proposes moving up the liberalization of gas prices to 2016, seeking to transition toward a free-market system for selling gasoline and diesel to the public and ensuring that cap prices begin to move consistently in line with international be...

Syria: What does Russia want from Turkey?
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Oct 2015

Man, Russia entered the Syrian equation in a big way, like an elephant enters a china shop to register wedding gifts. Kremlin is using an array of air assets to bomb all anti-Assad targets in the country, encouraged by which the regulars are attacking opposition forces around Hama and Idlip. Puti...

Politics: Crime Rate Largely Unchanged, but Black Figure Remains High
MEXICO · Report · 07 Oct 2015

Executive Summary Public security and crime is a major issue in Mexican society. The 2015 National Survey on Victimization and Public Safety (ENVIPE) conducted by the National Statistics Institute (INEGI) sheds light on crime rates and the types of crimes committed. But the raw numbers don’t tell...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Oct 2015

By sending a deficitary budget bill for 2016 to Congress, the government signaled it has thrown in the towel regarding even a modicum of fiscal responsibility, and at the start of September S&P lowered the country’s rating from investment grade. The consequent reduction of external credit will de...

Taxing Problem
PHILIPPINES · Report · 05 Oct 2015

This time last year, we called attention to the higher likelihood of congress’s passing revenue-eroding tax measures as election season approached.[1] And indeed a few months later, President Aquino signed a law increasing the tax-exempt threshold for employee bonuses, adjusting for inflation the...

Disinflation in October
VENEZUELA · Report · 05 Oct 2015

We forecast the NCPI MOM rate slowing to 12.0% in October. The YOY rate rises to 228.1% in October from 207.7% in September. We keep our September estimate virtually unchanged at 17.1% vs 17.7% in our previous report.

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