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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Oct 15
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Brazil Economics databank Oct 15
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Central America databank Sep 30
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Chile databank Sep 13
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Oct 4
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Dominican Republic databank Sep 13
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Ecuador databank Sep 20
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Gulf Countries databank Oct 11
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Hungary databank Sep 10
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India databank Sep 24
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Mexico databank Sep 11
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Panama databank Sep 11
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Peru databank Oct 15
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Philippines databank Oct 10
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Russia Economics databank Oct 11
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South Africa databank Oct 3
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Turkey databank Sep 18
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Ukraine databank Aug 14
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Venezuela databank Oct 3
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - GEORGIA'S ELECTIONS AND CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA OU...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Inflation Outlook in Limbo
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Sep 2014
The increase in the core inflation rate – from 5.3 to 5.8% between January and August 2014 – suggests that so-called “second round effects” of inflation, i.e. past inflation causing an inflationary spiral, are surfacing steadily. At the same time, the headline inflation rate has been in breach of...
MPC: No Surprises This Month
TURKEY · Report · 25 Sep 2014
This time, in line with the consensus view, the MPC left all interest rates unchanged (see graph). This is not too surprising, because of a rather worrisome inflation outlook and the jittery external/currency environment. As for the content of the statement, the Bank’s take on inflation dynamics ...
Public Security: More Money, More Work
MEXICO · Report · 24 Sep 2014
The spending budget proposal for 2015 falls short when it comes to matters of public security. Despite an ambitious plan to overhaul the justice system and the need to strengthen the role state and local security forces play in the fight against crime, the public security budget for next year rem...
Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Sep 2014
CNT and Ibope Polls Show a Close Race; Vox Populi Presents a Scenario Favoring Dilma The three voting intention polls released yesterday present a similar electoral scenario for the first round.In the second round, CNT and Ibope show a technical tie between Dilma Rousseff (PT) and Marina Silva (P...
The Labor Market According to the PNAD
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Sep 2014
Executive Summary The country remains mired in a situation of low growth and high inflation, even with contention of important administered prices and a current account deficit of US$ 80 billion over the preceding 12 months. In parallel, there are contrary signs from the labor market: unemploy...
Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Sep 2014
CNT/MDA: Dilma Increases Lead over Marina in 1st Round; Technical Tie in the 2nd Round The Vox Populi poll released yesterday presents a scenario in which Dilma Rousseff (PT) and Marina Silva (PSB) are tied, the same scenario registered by polls last week.The president leads in the 1st round.The ...
Turkey’s ISIS challenge doubles overnight
TURKEY · Report · 23 Sep 2014
Obama’s decision to strike ISIS targets in Syria, in a series of attacks joined by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and United Arab Emirates brought temporary relief to financial markets and more importantly to the hard-pressed Kurdish militias fighting to defend the city of Kobani.Yet, there are too...
Important announcement from the Economy Minister on policy reforms prepared for 2015
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Sep 2014
Fact: Earlier today, Economy Minister Varga spoke at a conference in Budapest. He made an important announcement on upcoming fiscal and other policy reports, which he expected to be part of the 2015 budget. This statement made the forint strengthen moderately in early trade, to EURHUF 310-311, bu...
Political Insights: Week of September 22
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Sep 2014
There are two weeks left until the first round of the elections (10/5).The candidates for president, governor and senator will intensify activities in this final leg of the campaign.In the coming days, six new presidential voting intention polls will be released. Presidential Election: Main Indic...
Inflation and the Exchange Rate Movements: What Are the Trends?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Sep 2014
The IPCA-15 in September came as a surprise at 0.39%, a slightly higher rate than the consensus projections and greater than the IPCA for August, which was 0.25%. This brought the IPCA over the past 12 months to 6.62%, versus 6.5% in July, with tradables accumulating an increase of 6.9% in 12 mon...
Weekly Tracker: September 21-27
TURKEY · Report · 21 Sep 2014
Executive Summary The nation sighed a collective breath of relief, as ISIS released the 49 hostages it had captured in the raid on the consular building of Mosul in June.Yet, the ending of the hostage crisis would give berth to Western allies to increase pressure on Ankara to play a bigger role i...
Pontius Pilatus’ Court of Appeals
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 20 Sep 2014
The US Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit refrained from judging on the appeal presented by Citigroup. The appeal aimed to determine whether judge Griesa’s rulings have the scope to prohibit its local branch (an independent subsidiary, established under Argentine law) to fulfill its obligati...
FDI Meets Structural Change
CHINA · Report · 19 Sep 2014
Executive Summary Fixed asset investment increased 13.8% y/y in real terms in August, its lowest growth rate so far this year. Industrial output rose 6.9% y/y, down 2.1 pps from July, likewise a significant fall, to below even the weakest growth seen during the Asian Financial Crisis. If gover...
Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Sep 2014
Datafolha: Marina’s rejection increases and she loses votes in the Southeast The Datafolha poll released today presents four important pieces of information: 1) Dilma Rousseff has expanded her lead over Marina in the 1st round; 2) Although the PT and PSB candidates are still tied in the 2nd round...
A Solid Budget Proposal
MEXICO · Report · 19 Sep 2014
Executive Summary The Ministry of Finance handed Congress on Friday, September 5 its budget proposals for 2015, which include the General Economic Policy Criteria for the year, a text that contains the economic and financial assumptions on which all budget proposals are predicated, as well as the...