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Political Reform Speed Bump
MEXICO · Report · 29 Oct 2014

Executive Summary Delays in passing political reform will require a major rethinking of the current legislative calendar as informally conceived by the three main political parties. At stake is not only whether the structural reform items listed in the Pact’s agenda can win approval during the cu...

A New Hope
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Oct 2014

Executive Summary October 20th was a milestone date for Indonesia. For the first time in the country’s history, a regional leader was inaugurated as president. Joko “Jokowi” Widodo served two terms as mayor in Solo, Central Java (though the second term was unfinished, due to his move to Jakart...

Toward a Political Crisis?
MEXICO · Report · 28 Oct 2014

Executive Summary The September 26 murder of six people, and the disappearance that same evening of 43 students in the state of Guerrero remains a totally open case. With the main suspects (the top officials in the city of Iguala) in hiding, the authorities have only just now begun to indicate th...

Unexpectedly low fiscal deficit target set for 2015
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Oct 2014

Fact: The Fiscal Council released its preliminary assessment of the government's budget draft for next year. The draft itself is not publicly known yet, but from the Council's statement, it became clear that the 2015 general government deficit target has been set at 2.4% of GDP, following the 2.9...

Edge of the Precipice
UKRAINE · Report · 28 Oct 2014

Executive SummaryAs the armed conflict has calmed down, parliamentary elections have brought in a pro-reformist coalition, and important reforms (such as a series of anti-corruption measures) have been launched. Some positive developments are in the making. At the same time, we continue to see ma...

Consequences of a Distortion in Measurement of the Real Exchange Rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Oct 2014

Executive Summary Since August 2011 the real exchange rate measured in relation to the basket of currencies has depreciated by more than 25%. However, seasonally adjusted monthly exports and imports have continued to fluctuate around an approximately constant level, generating nil trade balanc...

EL SALVADOR: Politics Hampering Economics
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Oct 2014

Executive SummaryWe expect the next 15 months in El Salvador to be marked by slow growth, low inflation, and a high, if declining, current account deficit. The fiscal deficit will be stable but high, burdened by pension system financing demands. It is basically the same picture we’ve seen for the...

The Growing Current Account Deficit
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Oct 2014

The current transactions deficit continues to increase. In September it again exceeded the consensus projections, rising to US$ 83.6 billion over the past 12 months, or 3.7% of GDP. This is the highest 12-month deficit since March 2002. The quality of its financing has also been worsening. Since ...

Dilma Reelected and Second Term Begins with Political Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Oct 2014

16 years in power Dilma Rousseff was reelected to a second term with the support of 54,501,118 voters (51.64% of valid votes), handing Aécio Neves’ (51,041,155, 48.36%) PSDB its fourth consecutive defeat.This is the PT’s slimmest margin of victory over the PSDB. When Dilma leaves office in four y...

Weekly Tracker: October 27-November 2
TURKEY · Report · 27 Oct 2014

Executive Summary The politics section starts with an analysis of Ankara’s grave errors of judgment in the course of the Syrian War. As a result of these, Turkey imported an al-Qaeda problem, it argues. Meanwhile, the Peace Process is most probably put on ice until after the 2015 general election...

Exit-polls: Pro-Reformist Majority Looks Secured
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Oct 2014

The voters, which were indecisive (near 1/3 of voters), indeed delivered surprises. Block of Petro Poroshenko was reported only slightly above "Narodny front" (Arseniy Yatsenyuk). "Sylna Ukraina" of Sergey Tigipko is out. Communist party also did not pass 5% barrier. At the same time "Samopomitch...

Weekly Tracker: Oct 26-Nov 1
TURKEY · Report · 26 Oct 2014

Executive Summary A “yellow substance” mailed to five consulates in Istanbul may turn out to be anthrax bacteria, which could stoke terror anxiety in the markets on Monday. Ankara reluctantly granted access to Iraqi peshmerga to enter Syrian Kurdish town Kobane, which may still fall to ISIS. Turk...

Polling Institutes Disagree; Presidential Race Still Open
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Oct 2014

The second round between Dilma Rousseff (PT) and Aécio Neves (PSDB) is completely open.Today, five polls were released (Ibope, Datafolha, MDA, Sensus and Vox Populi).Dilma is in the lead according to Ibope and Vox Populi.Datafolha presents a technical tie, with a slight lead for Dilma.MDA and Sen...

No Adjustment Till 2014
VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Oct 2014

Executive Summary Our already gloomy outlook on economic policy has darkened over the last month. A relatively pragmatic head of economic policy has been demoted in favor of more traditional chavista policymakers. President Maduro has formally requested special powers to rule by decree. The gover...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Oct 2014

Dilma expands lead over Aécio, according to Datafolha and Ibope but race still open Dilma Rousseff (PT) has expanded her lead over Aécio Neves (PSDB) in the Datafolha and Ibope polls released on Thursday, by six and seven points respectively.The results of the polls were positive for Dilma: 1) Fo...

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