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The Gains To India From Lower Oil Prices
INDIA · Report · 21 Nov 2014

Executive Summary The dramatic decline in the price of crude oil has important implications for the Indian economy. Consumption of crude oil is slightly above 6% of GDP, so a halving of the price of crude oil is tantamount to a tax cut of 3 percentage points of GDP. Crude oil consumption divided ...

Do you have any questions for the Central Bank Governor?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 21 Nov 2014

Every year around this time we do a Q&A with a senior Philippines government official to close out the year and publish a Special Report with conclusions from the interview. This year, in light of what we think is high market interest at this time in US Fed actions and EM central bank responses, ...

MPC: Not So Dovish After All…
TURKEY · Report · 20 Nov 2014

In line with the consensus view, the MPC left all interest rates unchanged today: weekly repo rate at 8.25%; O/N lending and borrowing rates at 11.25% and 7.5%, respectively. Three aspects of the statement are worth highlighting. First, the Bank now hints at a moderate shift in the composition of...

The Repo Rate Remains Unchanged
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 20 Nov 2014

In his inaugural Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) address, South African Reserve Bank (SARB) Governor Lesetja Kganyago announced that the committee unanimously voted in favor of no change in the repo rate. Therefore, the repo rate remains at 5.75% per year (see Graph 1). Graph 1 Headline/Core Infl...

The Prize: A (Not So) Epic (Cyclical) Quest…
TURKEY · Report · 19 Nov 2014

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThis time, Turkey’s newfound fortune – or The Prize* -- is a collapsing oil price. Since the broad-based market sell-off of early October, Turkish markets rallied strongly. Exuberance has gained traction in recent days, with the markets already entertaining – or seriously debatin...

Possible Political Crisis Scenarios
MEXICO · Report · 19 Nov 2014

Executive Summary The tragedy of Iguala and the broad social movement that has emerged to demand justice for the victims have laid bare grave problems and deficiencies in Mexico’s political system. Outraged by the murder of the students and the direct role played by authorities in the crime, prot...

Foreign Exchange Rate Uncertainty
MEXICO · Report · 19 Nov 2014

Executive Summary The volatility that has swept international markets in recent weeks in response to the sluggish levels of growth expected in Europe and China has taken a significant toll on the peso relative to the US dollar. Although the shift in the exchange rate of recent weeks was pronounce...

Indonesia : Jokowi’s Bold Move
INDONESIA · In Brief · 19 Nov 2014

In less than a month in office, Indonesian new President made a bold move by raising the domestic fuel price. The price of subsidized gasoline was increased from Rp. 6,500 per liter to Rp. 8,500. The price of subsidized diesel oil was also increased from Rp. 5,500 to Rp. 7,500 per liter. With tha...

Economic Performance Stellar, while Corruption Weakens Fernández
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 18 Nov 2014

Executive Summary Economic performance couldn’t be better. GDP growth in 2014 through Q3 was outstanding, climbing to 7%, from 3.7% last year. The numbers were positive across sectors. Inflation was estimated at 2.83%, nearly half the level of the same period of 2013; we expect it to end 2014 ben...

Political Insights: Week of Novemeber 17
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Nov 2014

Ministerial reform and the Petrobras scandal will be the main topics on this week’s political agenda.Another important topic is the discussion in Congress to change the primary surplus goal for 2014.President Dilma Rousseff returns this week after participating in the G20 meeting in Australia. Ho...

Modest Rebound Likely
PERU · Forecast · 17 Nov 2014

Executive SummaryInitial growth expectations for 2014 by both analysts and government authorities have fallen from 5.5% to 6% to the 3% area, which we still consider optimistic. We believe Q4 growth will be about 2% y/y, compared to 1.8% for Q3. We see 2014 growth at just 2.5%.More worrisome is t...

Retail Sales Still in the Doldrums
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Nov 2014

Real retail sales expanded in September, both in the restricted concept (0.4%) and in the augmented one, which includes cars and construction materials (0.5%). With this, augmented sales in the third quarter shrank 1.9%. It was a smaller fall than in the second quarter (-3%), but household consum...

Labor Disunion and Fiscal Risks
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 Nov 2014

The recent expulsion of the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (NUMSA) from the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) could be the harbinger of intense inter-union competition as well as an escalation in industrial relations instability in South Africa. As things stand curre...

FX mortgage loans to households will be converted into HUF at market exchange rates
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Nov 2014

Fact: Just as we completed our November monthly, the government announced the rules for the upcoming conversion of FX-denominated mortgage loans by banks to households into HUF. Essentially, these loans (currently EUR10.8bn or HUF 3350bn, which will likely fall to EUR 8bn at net value, following ...

Gasoline price hike on the horizon, again
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 14 Nov 2014 · 4 responses

President Maduro seems to be paving the way towards a gasoline price hike. In his November 13 speech announcing three bills aimed at promoting the communes and supporting the misiones, Maduro placed the topic on the public agenda. He said the price will rise in the right moment (“in the remainder...

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