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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Great Divergence
TURKEY · Report · 21 Dec 2014

Executive Summary The old year departs with two important political events in tow. The Constitutional Court will rule whether the 10% election hurdle is fair. We can’t handicap the ruling, but if the hurdle is struck down, a frenzied rush will be triggered to replace it with new legislation, draw...

Cooling the Boiling Public
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 19 Dec 2014

Falling oil prices and Western sanctions limiting access of capital to the Russian market resulted in rapid ruble depreciation, especially since they coincided with the Central Bank’s change of policies eventually allowing the free flow of the national currency for the first time in history. Occa...

Public Perception of Political Crisis
MEXICO · Report · 19 Dec 2014

Executive Summary Last week’s release of GEA-ISA’s most recent quarterly study, Mexico Politics, Society and Change: Governability Scenarios and the accompanying nationwide door-to-door survey of registered voters offers us the opportunity to look at the country’s multifaceted political and insti...

Oil’s Toll on the Mexican Economy
MEXICO · Report · 19 Dec 2014

Executive Summary One of the subjects most widely discussed in recent weeks is the abrupt plunge in oil prices and the multiple effects it will entail for both producing and consuming countries. Prices have fallen by an average of 35% to 40% from their highs of the past decade (2011), and the sim...

Election Year Is Coming Up
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Dec 2014

We’re coming up on an election year. National Assembly elections are due in September 2015 but may be brought forward or pushed back by a few months. With oil revenue and public support plunging, the government will have a hard time maintaining its majority. On the other hand, it’s poised to stre...

The U.S. – Cuba Agreement
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Dec 2014

The U.S.-Cuba agreement reconfigures hemispheric relations. It integrates Cuba to world markets and rebuilds the relationship between the U.S. and the rest of Latin America. Hemispheric relationships move closer to a relationship between peers and weaken the image of the U.S. as a colonial threat...

Inflation Accelerates To 6.5% In November
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Dec 2014

In the absence of BCV inflation data, we continue analyzing inflation using the food basket data published by the Center for Documentation and Social Analysis of the Venezuelan Federation of Teachers (Cendas).We estimate that the month-on-month National CPI inflation rate accelerated to 6.5 perce...

The Governor Say(s)
PHILIPPINES · Report · 17 Dec 2014

Executive SummaryWe sat down with BSP Governor Amando “Say” M. Tetangco last week to hear how he is reading current developments and emergent risks and how these feed into monetary policy decisions, particularly the dilemma between financial sector stability, which may require raising interest ra...

In the Waiting Room
CHILE · Report · 17 Dec 2014

Executive Summary All signs point in the same depressing direction – or, one might argue, in no direction at all. Business confidence is stagnant, at historically low levels. The manufacturing sector is suffering from bradycardia (a condition of slow heartbeat). For the second month in a row, ...

The Impact of Russia: No Jitters but No Rate Cut Either
HUNGARY · Report · 17 Dec 2014

Facts The turmoil about the Russian currency in recent days has not left the Hungarian forint and government bonds unaffected, but so far the negative impact has been moderate on both markets. The forint fell by close to 2% vis-à-vis the euro over the past two days, and a correction of similar si...

Government Evaluation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Dec 2014

Amidst challenges, CNI/Ibope poll was positive for Dilma The Ibope poll contracted by CNI and conducted on December 5-8 shows that evaluations of the Dilma Rousseff (PT) government are stable. “Great/good” evaluations dropped two percentage points (40% to 38%) in the last three months, a percenta...

The Ups and Downs of 3Q
COLOMBIA · Report · 16 Dec 2014

Colombia’s GDP expanded by 4.2% in 3Q; while the economy is slowing relative to a more dynamic first half of the year, it is still in good shape vis a vis the rest of the world, and set to grow by close to 5% by the end of the year (Figure 1). The most vigorous sector continues to be construction...

Recovery of Retail Sales: Will it Prove Sustainable?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Dec 2014

The good news is that real retail sales expanded substantially in October, both in the restricted sense (+1%) and augmented sense (+1.7%), which includes cars and construction materials. October was the third straight month of elevation. With this, it is likely that the third quarter this year wi...

Upbeat Confidence Likely to Face Some Correction
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 15 Dec 2014

Executive SummarySouth Africa’s economic recovery faces a steep uphill on the back of structural blockages in the energy. Sporadic electricity supply during the last quarter of 2014 will in all probability sap some of the confidence exuded by firms in recent opinion surveys. Against this backdrop...

Weekly Tracker: December 14-20
TURKEY · Report · 14 Dec 2014

Executive Summary Our core agenda remains spillover from the war on ISIS to Turkey, the Peace Processes with the Kurds -- and now the Alevites; and the upcoming Constitutional Court ruling on the 10% election hurdle. Promising that these will be adequately covered in our upcoming Monthly report, ...

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