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How soon will Argentina return to “Common Sense Economics”?
ARGENTINA · Report · 04 Dec 2014

“Common sense economics” refers to a countercyclical fiscal policy that tries to generate fiscal surpluses (or at least fiscal balance) when external conditions feed an economic boom and confine fiscal deficits to recessionary scenarios; a monetary policy that targets inflation; trade and exchang...

Pdvsa Bond
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 03 Dec 2014

Last week, the National Superintendency of Securities (SNV) posted on its website that on October 22 Pdvsa was authorized to issue $3 billion in foreign currency bonds by way of a private placement. No further details were disclosed. This approval occurred six days ahead of the Pdvsa 2014 $3 bill...

Inflation: Modest Improvements in Trend
TURKEY · Report · 03 Dec 2014

November CPI inflation came in at 0.2%, broadly as expected, which meant a slight increase in the 12-month rate to 9.2% from 9% in October, on the back of last November’s low base. Food prices are relatively well-behaved this time, rising modestly over a month ago, while, as expected, transportat...

Costa Rica: Budget Victories, at a Price
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 03 Dec 2014

Executive SummaryAfter almost three months of heated debate, Costa Rican President Luis Guillermo Solís got his 2015 budget approved, unchanged. Though this was a political victory, its second-round effects will be less favorable. The fight generated some casualties, even within the president’s o...

How Far Is Argentina’s Return To “Common Sense Economics”?
ARGENTINA · Report · 02 Dec 2014

Nearing the end of the third quarter of 2012 the Argentine economy is showing clear signs of stagnation, with 25% annual inflation; country risk more than twice that of crisis-suffering Spain; and a black market premium in the foreign exchange market of approximately 40%.This is taking place desp...

Q3 Growth a Bit Limp
MEXICO · Report · 02 Dec 2014

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Q3 GDP grew 2.2% y/y, just as we estimated. Most analysts were disappointed by that, and lowered their expectations of the economy’s recovery prospects, though such pessimism suggests most were not paying close enough attention to the monthly GDP proxy (IGAE). In the wake of Aug...

Debunking three Turkey stories
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Dec 2014

Three new Turkey stories that erupted into the investors’ agenda need urgent treatment by the usual know-it-all style of the Political Analyst. According to Bloomberg and WSJ, Ankara and Washington DC are close to announcing a deal to establish no-flight and buffer zones in Syria. Pure bunk, I sa...

The new FX law
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 01 Dec 2014

The new FX Law was approved by President Maduro on November 13, published in the Official Gazette No. 6150 Extraordinary on November 18, and known to the public on November 28. It repeals the law passed last February (Official Gazette No. 6.126 Extraordinary, 19 February 2014). In our view, the l...

PBOC Cuts Interest Rates
CHINA · Report · 01 Dec 2014

Executive Summary On November 21, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced it was cutting one-year benchmark lending rates by 40 basis points to 5.6 percent. It lowered one-year benchmark deposit rates by 25 basis points to 2.75 percent. This is the first time central bank changed its monet...

Frustration over the GDP Result: Stagnation Should Continue
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Dec 2014

Some claim that the GDP growth in the third quarter managed to pull the country out of its “technical recession”. Indeed, a third straight quarter of contraction was avoided, but the tiny “recovery” of 0.1% in the third quarter is far from reason for commemoration. It left a nil carry-over to the...

Weekly Tracker: Nov 30-Dec 6
TURKEY · Report · 30 Nov 2014

Executive Summary AKP’s efforts to whitewash allegations of corruption and bribery, the Internal Security Reform bill and attempts to subvert the Army politically ring alarm bells about the future of the Turkish democracy. We are concerned not only about Turkey’s standing in the free world, but a...

Will Venezuela Honor Its Debt?
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Nov 2014

Executive Summary As oil prices continue to slip and an election year approaches, two questions are on everyone’s mind. First, will the government shift its adjustment strategy from one of attrition (import cuts; price, production, and trade controls; harsh punishments; and loose fiscal and monet...

IMF Deal is the Only Way Out
UKRAINE · Report · 27 Nov 2014

Executive SummaryUkraine is waiting for the creation of a new coalition. A great deal is riding on the effectiveness and efficiency of the Parliament and the new Cabinet. The parties, now negotiating coalition terms, can create a constitutional majority in Parliament, and in that case won’t have ...

Courageous First Steps
INDONESIA · Report · 27 Nov 2014

Executive Summary The Jokowi government began in earnest in November, with impromptu presidential visits to several places, beginning with the headquarters of the Indonesian Investment Board. That sent a strong signal that he wants to streamline the investment approval process, by introducing ...

GDP Growth Dips Anew...
PHILIPPINES · Report · 27 Nov 2014

Back in July this year, we wrote "the setback caused by the Supreme Court decision on public spending as well as the slowness in decongesting the Port of Manila threatens 3Q14 economic growth" and proceeded to pare our 2014 GDP growth forecast to 5.8%.("Chilling Effect", 17 July 2014 ) When Augus...

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