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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jul 2014

Ibope Presents A Stable Scenario And A Dilma Victory In The Second Round The most recent Ibope poll (July 18-21) on the presidential race and evaluations of the government presented the following information: 1) we still do not know if there will be a second round; 2) unlike the scenarios present...

Presidential Election: Dramatic Ending on The Election.
INDONESIA · In Brief · 22 Jul 2014

The Indonesian Presidential Election was finally completed with the election of Joko (Jokowi) Widodo and Jusuf Kalla as President and Vice President Elect of 2014 – 2019. That decision was announced by the Indonesian Election Commission on the July 22, 2014 evening in Jakarta. Jokowi – JK, as the...

Final Leg of Energy Reform Debate
MEXICO · Report · 22 Jul 2014

Executive Summary The long road to approving secondary laws related to the energy sector has now entered its final stretch. But given that of all the Pact for Mexico structural reforms this is by far the one most crucial to the future of the economy, and the one on which the administration of Pre...

New Evidence of Decelerating Economic Activity
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Jul 2014

The proxy for GDP computed by the Central Bank (IBC-Br) brought more evidence that Brazil’s economic growth is decelerating. With the decline of 0.2% in May, the carry over to the second quarter is -0.1%, and in light of all the signs of further weakening in June, the most probable outcome is tha...

Political Insights: Week of July 21
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Jul 2014

With the Congressional recess and the end of the World Cup and BRICS Summit, the presidential race will be the focus of the agenda.A new Ibope poll is eagerly expected, since Datafolha and Sensus show a technical tie between Dilma Roussef (PT) and Aécio Neves (PSDB) in an eventual second round. D...

Bounded Power and Modest Reforms
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 21 Jul 2014

Executive Summary This report extends our forecast horizon to 2016. Our previous outlook expected Maduro’s administration to carry out limited actions and reforms in 2014 that would help the economy begin to recover from stagflation some time in 2015. Instead, government inaction and poor executi...

Army takes decisive advance on terrorists
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Jul 2014

Over the last few days Ukrainian army is making strong advance on separatists. From messages we have the picture is not complete but we know that the army has finally encircled the territory and broken separatists into three group. Two of them (near Donetsk and near Lysychansk) seem to be totally...

Weekly Tracker: July 20-26
TURKEY · Report · 20 Jul 2014

Executive Summary There is not much new to report on the Turkish presidential election campaign. PM Erdogan leads in the polls, though the opposition suspects foul play. Experts now think a convincing victory by AKP could trigger early elections before next year. In the meantime, Gul may be seeki...

Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jul 2014

Datafolha: Worrisome News for Dilma The Datafolha Institute released a new presidential voting intention and government evaluation poll, conducted July 15-16.The poll presents worrisome information for President Dilma Rousseff (PT): 1) The probability of a second round is still high; 2) Dilma is ...

Tax Reform, Take Two
CHILE · Report · 18 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Several months of opposition and discussion to President Bachelet’s proposed tax reform has resulted in a compromise deal between government and opposition. The main issue had to do with the taxation of income from capital. Chile today has a system of full integration betw...

Chilling Effect
PHILIPPINES · Report · 17 Jul 2014

It was the first question we asked Budget Secretary Florencio Abad last December[1] and it worries us now to hear President Benigno Aquino talk about the "chilling effect" of the Supreme Court decision declaring the executive's Disbursement Acceleration Program (DAP) unconstitutional.In fact the ...

Expected Action, Weak Narrative
TURKEY · Report · 17 Jul 2014

As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee cut its key reference rate (one-week repo) today by 50 bps to 8.25%, but left its O/N lending rate intact at 12%.As well, in what we interpret as being largely a technical move – because the reference rate would be otherwise almost equal to the O/N borro...

Chasing after Inflationary Winds
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 Jul 2014

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) raised the repo rate by 25 basis points today. Governor Marcus stated that despite the predicament of rising inflation and subdued growth, the SARB remained committed to maintaining price stability. Against this backdrop...

The Central bank increases discount rate 3 ppt up to 12.5%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Jul 2014

The National Bank of Ukraine today increased discount rate by 3 ppt up to 12.5% from 9.5% previously. The overnight refinancing rate was increased to 17.5% from 14.5%. The Central bank targets to reduce inflation rates, according to the explanatory note of the regulator. In fact, we see this move...

Skepticism Could Hamper Mining Investment
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 16 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Mining is clearly the Dominican Republic’s most dynamic economic activity. Mineral exports have climbed from less than 0.5% of goods exports in January 2010-March 2011, to more than 4% in April 2011-October 2012, and subsequently to more than 15%. In 2013, metallic minerals expo...

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