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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Where is Consumption Headed
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Nov 2015

Real retail sales declined again in September, meaning three straight quarters of contracting household consumption (Graph 1). More important than this, however, is the absence of any signs of reversal of this behavior.

Weekly Tracker: November 15-21
TURKEY · Report · 15 Nov 2015

The new cabinet is expected to be announced this week, when we shall get to see who’ll be in charge of the economy and/or what the new division of labor will be in the management of the economy. Yet, it will probably take a lot longer to get a clear picture on the more important issues like the e...

A Political Earthquake in the Making
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 13 Nov 2015

An unexpected political earthquake shook the country on October 25. First, Daniel Scioli beat Mauricio Macri by less than 3 percentage points when most opinion polls had anticipated a gap of nearly 10 percentage points between Scioli and Macri, the new frontrunner. Second but not least, María Eug...

Economics: Prem. 3Q GDP Tells a Familiar Story
MEXICO · Report · 12 Nov 2015

The Estimate of Quarterly GDP for the third quarter, published recently by the National Statistics Office (Inegi), showed 2.4% growth compared to the same quarter a year earlier. The expansion was driven primarily by a 4.6% increase in primary activities and 2.9% growth in those of the tertiary s...

Politics: A Tale of Four State Elections (III)
MEXICO · Report · 12 Nov 2015

With this issue we conclude our initial analysis of the states that will hold gubernatorial elections in 2016. This week we offer a preview of four states that have had at least two experiences with alternation in power: Chihuahua, Aguascalientes, Tlaxcala and Zacatecas. Following seven decades i...

October CPI data: no surprise, firmly on upward trend on excluding-fuel-prices basis
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Nov 2015

Believe it or not, we finally scored on a monthly CPI forecast, expecting exactly the actual 0.2% mom, 0.1% yoy for October. The yoy rate was up from September's -0.4%. Fuel prices, which moved around the overall CPI quite erratically in recent months, fell further by 1.7% mom, but in yoy terms t...

A New War to Fight
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 09 Nov 2015

Russia’s engagement in Syria gives it a first-mover advantage in terms of global political bargaining. However, in order to use this chip, Moscow needs a successful outcome from the operation because leaving Syria without a success could damage the leadership’s reputation. That puts the Kremlin i...

Student protests in South Africa: A middle class uprising?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 09 Nov 2015

A number of factors are slowly but inextricably re-shaping the political-economy landscape of South Africa in ways that could significantly erode the dominance of the African National Congress (ANC) ruling party and fundamentally shift political dynamics in next year’s municipal elections. Such f...

Week of November 9
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Nov 2015

The truck drivers’ strike is worrying the government this week. The House will try to vote on the repatriation bill again. The Joint Budget Committee may vote on changes to the 2015 fiscal target. Demonstrations against the government are planned for next Sunday but they are not expected to recei...

Inflation – No Reason for Optimism
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Nov 2015

In October the 12-month IPCA rose to almost 10%, a result not only explained by the substantial adjustment of some key administered prices. There are clear signs that the effects of the weaker exchange rate are starting to appear in consumer prices, and even with the deepening recession and risin...

Weekly Tracker: November 8-14
TURKEY · Report · 08 Nov 2015

We start with a very brief overview of the post-election scene. We recap the reasons for AKP’s victory, review the timeline before a new government is formed, and speculate on what we should expect on the economy side of things. As regards the latter, it is too soon to comment on the nature and t...

Moody's outlook for Ba1 Hungarian sovereign rating went to positive from stable today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Nov 2015

At its last scheduled revision date this year, Moody's improved its outlook for Hungary's Ba1 long-term FX debt rating from stable to positive today. The agency said it expects the government debt ratio to continue its moderate downward trend from 76.2% of GDP at end-2014, with less influence fro...

Looking beyond December
VENEZUELA · Report · 06 Nov 2015

With a month to go before the December 6 (“6D”) National Assembly elections and polls showing the opposition’s lead widening, the question is no longer whether the opposition will win but whether it’ll win by a landslide. We expect an absolute majority but not a three-fifths or two-thirds superma...

Del Pino on Pdvsa's 2016-2017 maturities
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 06 Nov 2015

PDVSA President Eulogio del Pino said in a phone interview yesterday, November 5, that the company is considering proposing a renegotiation of the maturities of the bonds due in 2016 and 2017. In our view, his message is quite clear: Pdvsa is working on a market-friendly debt reprofiling exercise...

Inflation accelerates again in November
VENEZUELA · Report · 06 Nov 2015

We forecast the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) accelerating again in November to 13.8 percent from 12.0 percent in October.The year-on-year rate rises to 256.7 percent from 228.1 percent.

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