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The Setting For The Budget Speech
INDIA · Report · 11 Feb 2015

Executive Summary Optimists believe that if Budget 2015 works out right, trend growth in India will accelerate from 6.5%. Pessimists believe that the gulf between the existing structures of government and the requirements of the economy is growing and is steadily becoming a drag on growth. Theref...

Banking Sector: A Big Move Back Towards Normality
HUNGARY · Report · 11 Feb 2015

Executive Summary Life in the domestic banking sector has been unusually eventful in recent weeks. In a surprise move, the government signed a memorandum of understanding with the EBRD on its future policy intentions regarding the banking sector. Committing to bank privatization, the reduction of...

Year of the Bellwether
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 11 Feb 2015

Executive Summary Since the start of the year, financial markets have used sharply lower oil prices, expected to last for some time yet, as their bellwether, predicting continuing good fortune for the incoming Year of the Ram.Low oil prices plus the ECB’s large stimulus package and a modified Sup...

Economics: Public Finance in the Wake of Cuts
MEXICO · Report · 11 Feb 2015

Executive Summary During the last week of January the authorities released public finance data as of December 2014. Tax revenues remained strong and there was no major expansion of public spending, so the public deficit came in below what the Ministry of Finance had anticipated in the general eco...

More of the same
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 10 Feb 2015

In a rather disorganized press conference, Finance minister Rodolfo Marco Torres and Central Bank president Nelson Merentes announced the new forex system. They added little to what President Maduro said on January 21. As expected, the 6.30 bolivars per dollar rate applies to food and medicines. ...

Politics: Posing for the Elections
MEXICO · Report · 10 Feb 2015

Executive Summary The Mexican Congress officially convened February 1 for a three-month regular session scheduled to conclude April 30, just over one month before federal elections in which every member of the Chamber of Deputies is to be replaced. With corruption and potential conflicts of inter...

Managing Economic Crisis
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 10 Feb 2015

The Russian government is dealing with two opposing priorities: managing economic difficulties, while denying their existence. The government launched a plan to support budget-funded parts of society, while staving off full-throated economic crisis. With high interest rates creating challenges fo...

Week of February 10
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Feb 2015

Despite the approaching Carnaval holidays, this will be an intense week in Congress. In the House, the Compulsory Budget may be voted upon. House leaders will also nominate members for the Petrobras CPI. In the Senate, the opposition is still trying to gather support for a Joint CPI. The presiden...

Lower Growth for the Long Haul
CHINA · Forecast · 09 Feb 2015

Executive Summary China’s main indicators show that the economy has reached a “new normal” stage, of relatively low yet stable performance. Real GDP rose 7.4% in 2014, down 0.3 pp from 2013. That puts growth below 8% for three years in a row. Quarterly growth rates were fairly flat last year, ...

How Severe Will the Recession Be?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Feb 2015

Despite the option for a gradual fiscal adjustment to save economic activity from an intense contraction, it’s becoming increasingly clear that Brazil is not only facing a recession in the coming months, but rather negative GDP growth for the entire year. This conclusion holds even without includ...

Weekly Tracker: February 8-14
TURKEY · Report · 08 Feb 2015

Executive Summary President Erdogan says he is receiving death threats from alleged members of the Gulen Organization and we believe him. An assassination attempt will have disastrous consequences for Turkish politics and economic confidence since it will bring Turkey to war footing. According to...

Petrobras Scandal
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Feb 2015

Creation of Petrobras CPI authorized The president of the House of Representatives, Eduardo Cunha (PMDB-RJ), has authorized the functioning of the Petrobras CPI (Investigative Parliamentary Committee). The request was read on the House floor. Now, party leaders have 48 hours to nominate members o...

CBT Independence: How much longer?
TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Feb 2015

I’m writing this brief to address FAQs after the recent barrage of criticism by Erdogan about CBT’s erroneous ways which reached the point of questioning the wisdom of its independence. To summarize the salient points of the debate, allow me to share this question by a reader, whose name I shall ...

Headwinds Kicking Up
MEXICO · Report · 04 Feb 2015

Executive Summary Mexico’s non-oil exports remained strong in 2014, according to the latest data, with private investment and consumption recovering faster, and public investment continuing to fall. In H2 the economy regained its “natural” growth rate, a trajectory it could sustain through 2015. ...

Petrobras Scandal
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Feb 2015

Graça Foster leaves Petrobras and a new CPI is underway On Tuesday evening, February 3, President Dilma Rousseff met with then-President of Petrobras Graça Foster. Despite the secrecy surrounding the meeting, the topic of which was never divulged, everyone in Brasília knew what was coming, and th...

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