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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Recession Through 2016
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 17 Mar 2015

Executive Summary This report extends our macroeconomic outlook to 2016. We revise down our 2015 GDP growth forecast to –9.5 percent (from –6.4 percent) and forecast –2.1 growth in 2016. Inflation remains in the triple digits this year and next. The current account balance turns negative (–$14.3 ...

MPC Tries Damage Control
TURKEY · Report · 17 Mar 2015

As expected, given the wobbly behavior of the lira and the recent deterioration in inflation expectations, the Monetary Policy Committee did the cautious thing today, leaving all interest rates unchanged (see graph). As for the content of the statement, the assessments on the current account defi...

The Labor Market as Reflected by the Monthly Version of the National Household Survey (PNAD)
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Mar 2015

In various previous reports we measured the labor market situation using data from the Monthly Employment Survey (PME), which is restricted to six metropolitan regions. The other source of job market data produced by the IBGE is the National Household Survey (PNAD), which now has a monthly versio...

Week of March 16
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Mar 2015

The effects of the weekend demonstrations will continue to be felt this week.In Congress, we highlight another attempt to vote on the 2015 Budget.Committees will be installed to analyze the fiscal austerity provisional measures.In the Senate, Political Reform bills will be discussed.The House wil...

The End of Exuberance
PERU · Report · 16 Mar 2015

Executive Summary The government has grown more conciliatory after losing its congressional majority. But it’s open season on criticism, with even Vice President Marisol Espinosa finding fault with government policies and ruling party attitudes at times. Dialogue with the opposition resulted in a...

Weekly Tracker: March 15-21
TURKEY · Report · 15 Mar 2015

Executive SummaryIn this Econ-only Tracker, we briefly review the latest date releases and preview the upcoming MPC meeting on Tuesday. We think the MPC will keep rates on hold this week, given the circumstances, even though this solves close to nothing in terms of broader uncertainties regarding...

A Big Growth Surprise from Net Exports
HUNGARY · Report · 13 Mar 2015

Executive Summary Detailed GDP figures for Q4 2014 show that the unexpected strength of output (+0.8% qoq sda) was mainly due to a pick-up in net exports. Consumer demand was also relatively strong, while fixed investment was losing momentum, and inventory accumulation remained markedly negative....

Developments in Fiscal, Financial and Monetary Institutions
INDIA · Report · 13 Mar 2015

Executive Summary There is an important three-pronged move in institution building, which comprises: (a) formal inflation targeting at RBI; (b) unburdening RBI of the conflict of interest of debt management for the government; and (c) giving RBI a bond market through which monetary policy would b...

The Fiscal Deficit, Stupid
ARGENTINA · Report · 13 Mar 2015

Executive Summary In this report, we update the concerns presented a year ago in our report “Dangerous Monetary Arithmetic”. We go into detail with regards the monetary implications of a rising fiscal deficit and the sustainability of the Central Bank’s sterilization cost. The Central Bank steril...

Unemployment and Labor Income in the Recession
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Mar 2015

Executive Summary In this work we discuss the reflections of the expected contraction of GDP em 2015 on the unemployment rate and labor income. In the exercise, we assume that GDP will contract by at least 0.5% and at most 1.5%. The projections are based on data from the Monthly Employment ...

​Power Situation Update
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 13 Mar 2015

In its latest update published today, the Department of Energy listed 240 companies that have signed up for the Interruptible Load Program (ILP) under which participants will voluntarily run their own generator sets instead of drawing power from the grid, should there be a power supply shortage. ...

Ecuadorian Government: Whatever it takes
ECUADOR · In Brief · 12 Mar 2015

Despite cuts of $1.4 b in expenditures, the 2015 budget still shows financing needs above $10 b. China came to the rescue with a comprehensive package of loans that amount to $7.5 b but only about $4b will be available in this year. This issue combined with falling yields for the Ecuadorian bonds...

IMF gives us a chance: $5 billion in first installment and demand to keep moving with reforms
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Mar 2015

Well, the IMF approved only $5 billion as first installment instead of $10 billion Ukrainian authorities demanded. Against the backdrop of aggravated internal fights between Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk (and growing rumors about the Cabinet reshuffle) this decision was quite logical. Advance payment ...

First Impressions from the Erdogan-Babacan-Basci-Summit
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Mar 2015

I’m rushing my first impressions from the Erdogan, Babacan and Basci summit which concluded around 8 pm Turkish time last night. A brief statement from Erdogan followed around 9:30 pm. I wanted to pen this so that our Asian readers have something to work with. The summary is brief: Erdogan and hi...

Politics: Anti-graft System’s First Steps
MEXICO · Report · 11 Mar 2015

Executive Summary On February 26, the Chamber of Deputies approved by an overwhelming majority constitutional amendments proposed by the National Action Party for achieving a more effective anti-corruption system. If adopted in its present form, the reform would mark a major step in the right dir...

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