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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Surprising Weakness in Q1 GDP
HUNGARY · Report · 16 May 2016

GDP dropped by 0.8% qoq in Q1, a big negative surprise for both official and market analysts. Construction output fell by more than a quarter from Q1 2015, signaling a collapse of EU-backed fixed investment early this year. In addition, manufacturing growth greatly weakened, led by a small drop i...

Minister Pérez Abad charts the course
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 16 May 2016

Pérez Abad’s announcements confirm our perceptions, as explained in our most recent forecast report. The minister said the government is forcing imports to fall by 50% to $20 bn in 2016 by restricting access to official dollars by the private sector. We forecast a 56% decline to $16 bn. In his vi...

A New Central Bank President
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 May 2016

Concrete measures and strategic positions in the ministries will be announced this week. Michel Temer will have his first test in Congress, with the vote on the change to the 2016 fiscal target. The PT defines its strategy for the PMDB administration. Leaders in the House continue to search for ...

President Danilo Medina wins reelection with 62% of the votes
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 16 May 2016

Danilo Medina has been reelected as President of the Dominican Republic with 62% of the votes, according to preliminary data from the Junta Central Electoral (central board of elections). Challenging candidate Luis Abinader received 35% of the votes. Guillermo Moreno received almost 2% of the vot...

What are the Signs of Economic Activity?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 May 2016

With the release of the IBC-Br for March, we have virtually all the economic activity indicators for the first quarter of 2016, making it possible to estimate GDP in the first three months. The conclusion is that it contracted by roughly the same as in the last quarter of 2015. However, our leadi...

Forecast Updates for 2016 and 2017
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 16 May 2016

This addendum presents the detailed forecast tables we promised to send to accompany the forecast revisions published in the April 29, 2016 Quarterly Outlook. To help the reader to identify the changes with respect to the forecasts we published in the Quarterly Outlook for January 2016 we have hi...

Week of May 15
TURKEY · Report · 15 May 2016

Starting with this week, we begin to fit together the pieces of Turkey’s multi-dimensional political puzzle. Our top candidate for premiership remains Mr. Binali Yildirim, though Messrs. Bekir Bozdag or Ismet Yilmaz can’t be ruled out. We can’t guarantee that economy czar Mehmet Simsek will retai...

On Guard
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 13 May 2016

President Putin put an end to a long-lasting rivalry between law enforcement agencies by dissolving some and creating a new federal service, the National Guard, which will be in charge of all internal troops. The new agency that will have control over almost all armed units inside the country is ...

Very poor GDP data for Q1
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 May 2016

The first estimate of Q1 GDP was a very bad surprise this morning, with -0.8% qoq, +0.5% yoy on sda basis. This went against a +2.3-2.4% yoy analyst consensus on Reuters and Bloomberg, and +2% yoy in Portfolio.hu's domestic poll. The Q1 data followed +1% qoq, 3% yoy in Q4 2015. All this seems to ...

Temer in Command
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 May 2016

Social Security reform, obligatory federal spending and control of public debt are the three priorities for the interim president.

Parliament gives green way for appointing Yuriy Lutsenko as General Prosecutor
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 May 2016

Today parliament voted in a law that allows appointing General Prosecutor a person without legal education. This step was presented to the public as an effort to bring on board someone “not from the system”. At the same time critiques blame the authorities that this change in reality was designed...

Elections update
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 12 May 2016

This Sunday May 15 the Dominican Republic will hold national elections. These elections are complex because they are simultaneously at three levels: for President and Vice-President, for Congress (32 senators and 190 representatives), and municipal authorities. 158 Mayors (and deputy mayors) will...

Who is afraid of Rodrigo Duterte? (3)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 12 May 2016

The business community finally got a preview of what presumptive president Rodrigo Duterte’s economic program would be. In a press conference late today, former agriculture secretary Carlos “Sonny” Dominguez and a member of Mr. Duterte’s transition team, presented a concise 8-point economic agend...

Senate approves impeachment admissibility and Dilma will be removed
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 May 2016

The Senate has approved the admissibility of the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff, with 57 votes in favor, 21 against and one abstention. Four senators did not participate: Renan Calheiros (PMDB-AL); Jáder Barbalho (PMDB-PA). Eduardo Braga (PMDB-Amazonas), on medical leave, and Pedro Chave...

Economics: Consumption and Credit Sustain Growth
MEXICO · Report · 11 May 2016

According to the National Statistics Office’s preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter of 2016, the Mexican economy grew 2.7% between January and March compared to the same quarter a year earlier. The report was in line with GEA’s estimate of 2.6%. Preliminary GDP growth was driven prim...

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