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Cetinkaya’s first performance: Hail the new boss, same as the old boss
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Apr 2016

Cetinkaya’s first performance: Hail the new boss, same as the old boss With our economist, Dr Murat abroad with business, the task of evaluating the first public performance of new CBRT chairman Mr. Cetinkaya has fallen upon me, the Political Analyst. The lines below are my personal impressions, ...

Growing Confidence in the Government
INDONESIA · Report · 25 Apr 2016

In his second year in office, President Joko Widodo apparently has succeeded in garnering more confidence in his presidency. This conclusion was derived from the recent survey conducted by SMRC (Syaiful Mujani Research and Consulting), released in mid-April 2016. The path of confidence in Jokowi’...

Week of April 25
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Apr 2016

Analysis of the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff will advance in the Senate. This week, the committee to analyze the process will be installed. Given the mostly pro-impeachment composition, the government is admitting defeat. The Supreme Court will analyze the case on state debt with the f...

Election-proof?
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 25 Apr 2016

The Philippine economy continued to chug along in 1Q16 as internal growth drivers benefited from low oil prices and election spending, with remittance inflows remarkably resilient and further amplified by a weaker peso. Looking at the next 12 to 18 months, the crucial question for the local econ...

Change of Government and Resumption of Investments: What can be Expected?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Apr 2016

The probability is now higher that Brazil will soon have a new government, with sufficient support to make substantial changes in economic policy, enabling the start of a cycle of reforms. The appreciation of Brazilian assets is a first reaction in this direction, but it will take much longer for...

Ecuador Tries to Rise After the Earthquake
ECUADOR · Report · 25 Apr 2016

Nobody was prepared for the catastrophic event of April 16. The aftermath is still being assessed, and even though President Correa’s assessment that the resulting costs will be around $3 billion or 3% of GDP might be premature, it is clear that the reconstruction will take several years. Minis...

Weekly Tracker: April 24-30
TURKEY · Report · 24 Apr 2016

Turkish politics will be entering a dark tunnel as of the start of this week, our politics author argues, which promises nothing but turbulence and uncertainty. As a result, political risks will indisputably rise, but providing a precise timing as to when is extremely difficult. You may read the ...

​The formal end of Default
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 22 Apr 2016

Today, once government pays Holdouts their judicial claims and with it enables BoNY to receive payments for restructured debt holders, Argentina will formally end a more than 14 years default. This represents (much needed) good news, not just for the sovereign, but for the economy as a whole as i...

Interesting Times
COLOMBIA · Report · 21 Apr 2016

The Colombian state still faces three main challenges to achieving peace: the demobilization and reintegration of the FARC fighters; reparations for victims; and rural development. The target date for finalizing the deal was recently postponed to an indefinite date -- but it’s likely that some ag...

MPC Does the Expected, More to Come
TURKEY · Report · 20 Apr 2016

​The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held its first meeting today under the chairmanship of the new Governor, Mr. Murat Cetinkaya, opting for a 50 bps cut of the O/N lending rate to 10% (simple), in line with expectations of the majority of analysts, including us. The other two rates – O/N borrow...

Economics: Sentiment and investment dichotomy
MEXICO · Report · 19 Apr 2016

Indexes of business confidence for March and of gross fixed investment for January showed negative results last week. But readings of sentiment and actual fixed investment significantly parted ways as far back as 2013 and as recently as 2015, a period in which business owners grew increasingly pe...

Politics: UNGASS and Foreign Policy Disarray
MEXICO · Report · 19 Apr 2016

President Enrique Peña Nieto’s approach to foreign relations has been a point of considerable controversy lately, with the most recent point of contention his initial decision early this month not to attend the upcoming U.N. General Assembly Special Session on Drugs, an event that had been moved ...

A Rather Weak Start for 2016
HUNGARY · Forecast · 18 Apr 2016

Growth prospects for 2016 still look quite bleak, given the combination of sluggish external demand with the currently unfolding impact of this year’s EU transfer shock. In fact, the economy started 2016 in a rather weak mode. We expect GDP growth to strengthen from 2% in 2016 towards 3% in the f...

Brazil and the World According to the IMF
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Apr 2016

Last week the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published its semiannual update of the World Economic Outlook (WEO). The report contains negative information about the Brazilian economy, and paints a global economic picture that will be unlikely to stimulate Brazilian growth.

Week of April 18
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Apr 2016

The impeachment arrives at the Senate. Senate President Renan Calheiros promises to set a work schedule with the Federal Supreme Court. A week of intense negotiations, by both the Planalto and the opposition. President Dilma Rousseff will intensify the government’s reaction, expanding the legal, ...

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