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Dilma Rousseff’s Administration
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Apr 2015

Temer chosen as government’s political articulator President Dilma Rousseff made a bold move in closing the Secretariat of Institutional Relations, headed by Pepe Vargas (PT), and transferring the responsibility for political articulation to VP Michel Temer. Political articulation is an area that...

Growth Firming Up
MEXICO · Report · 07 Apr 2015

Executive Summary The past month has produced further evidence of economic momentum and future growth potential, while also revealing unexpected weaknesses.Since September, the monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) shows the economy growing at its natural pace of 2.5% to 3% of GDP. January’s report extended t...

The absurd theater of the AIIB
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 06 Apr 2015

Special points to highlight in this issue: Investors seem to be increasingly acknowledging that the world suffers from a structural excess of savings over desired private investment, and it is this excess that was responsible for the excess consumption during the bubble years and the weak demand ...

Week of April 6
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Apr 2015

This will be a busy week. The House may vote on the bill regulating outsourcing of labor. The Petrobras CPI hears PT Treasurer João Vaccari Neto. The Senate discusses fiscal incentives, and the index for state debt is also on the agenda, but voting on both matters is likely to be postponed.Expect...

Corruption Probes Overshadows Focus on Economic Performance
PANAMA · Report · 06 Apr 2015

Executive Summary Corruption probes continues to broaden: more than dozen former government officials private contractor have been investigated for overcharging, conspiracy and bidding manipulation, since the Varela administration began. According to some estimates, the cost of these frauds could...

The Labor Market: New Trends
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Apr 2015

After several years of unemployment rates near historical lows along with rising real wages, the Brazilian labor market has started to show clear signs of weakening. The recent uptick in joblessness is a consequence of the sharp economic deceleration, and has been accompanied by smaller wage incr...

Politics in a Time of Stagflation
TURKEY · Report · 05 Apr 2015

Executive Summary A nation-wide blackout combined with two DHKP-C terror attacks inspired theories of “powers that be” that are trying to destabilize Turkey at the eve of general elections. We don’t subscribe to these theories, but won’t rule out Assad and Turkey’s National Intelligence Agency as...

Food and I: No Room for Complacency
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2015

March CPI inflation came in markedly worse than expected (1.2% vs. 0.9%), lifting the 12-month rate slightly to 7.6%, but – once again – that is because of a pretty bad food inflation print.The 12-month PPI inflation edged up a little, albeit from a low base. Core inflation – as measured by the m...

Recovery or Wishful-thinking?
CHILE · Forecast · 02 Apr 2015

Executive Summary The economy continues on a slow recovery path. GDP data released this month shows that the second half of 2014 was better than the first. Consumption decelerated, but overall it has been more stable than investment. Consumption has been helped by low interest rates, low unemp...

Dominican Rep 2014 NFPS deficit closed at 2.5% of GDP; lower than expected
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 31 Mar 2015 · 5 responses

Official figures from the Ministry of Finance revealed that total deficit of the Non-Financial Public Sector for 2014 was lower than programmed in the budget. The Accounting Directorate of the Ministry reported that the deficit closed at DOP 70.5 bn equivalent to 2.5% of GDP; that is DOP 7.2 bn (...

The Problem is Economic, but the Solution is Political
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Mar 2015

Executive Summary The primary surplus targets of 1.2% of GDP for 2015 and 2% for 2016 are welcome, but will only lead to a drop in the debt/GDP ratio if microeconomic reforms are carried out that boost economic growth and create conditions for a decline in the real interest rate. S&P has given...

2016: Two (very) different paths lie ahead
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 31 Mar 2015

Executive Summary Whoever runs the economy in the years to come will have to achieve, sooner or later, a balanced budget over the economic cycle (at least on average), a unified and free foreign exchange market with no restrictions on capital flows, foreign trade limited only by tariffs approved ...

Challenging Times
UKRAINE · Forecast · 31 Mar 2015

Executive Summary “Debt operations,” an overly optimistic spending plan, tough reforms, the threat emanating from the east and intensified infighting between various Ukrainian factions are all part of Ukraine’s new reality. While these things don’t stoke optimism, there are nonetheless positive d...

Growth: Stocks Save the Headline in Q4
TURKEY · Report · 31 Mar 2015

GDP growth came in at 2.6%, y/y, in Q4, somewhat better than both the consensus forecast and our expectation, but the forecast slippage -- as far as ours is concerned -- largely stems from stock build-up.As expected, growth momentum otherwise remains weak. The demand composition was exactly as we...

The Aftertaste of Debt is Gradually Turning Bitter
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 30 Mar 2015

The rising likelihood of an increase in US interest rates is inducing an economic policy headache in South Africa. In view of this, a backdrop would be handy before we carry on. The South African economy is performing well below potential. According to estimates from the International Monetary Fu...

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