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Dominican Rep allocates USD 1 bn in Sovereign Bonds
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 30 Apr 2015

Today, the Government of the Dominican Republic allocated USD 1 bn in Sovereign Bonds in global capital markets. The dual-tranche allocation (reopening of 10 and 30-year bonds) is part of the financing needs set in the budget for 2015. The reop of the 10-year bonds reached 5.125%, with a total am...

Monetary policy confusion
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 30 Apr 2015

Special points to highlight in this issue: There have been a number of announcements by the PBoC and other Beijing officials referring to changes and innovations in the way China will conduct monetary policy. Most of these have to do with improving the transmission of monetary policy and credit a...

Financial Reform Rollbacks
INDIA · Report · 30 Apr 2015

Executive Summary The BJP has rolled back the proposal of applying MAT on foreign investors. Until the fine print is read, we cannot be sure about what the tax authorities have done. And, the increase in the withholding tax from 5% to 18% stands. On financial reform, three issues have held: infla...

Technical Note on Changes in the External Accounts
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Apr 2015

The statistics on the balance of payments published by the Central Bank of Brazil are now reported according to the new Balance of Payments Manual of the International Monetary Fund (BPM6, replacing BPM5). The Central Bank’s notes with details of the changes can be found at this link (in Portugue...

All You Need Is Ecuador!
ECUADOR · Report · 29 Apr 2015

Executive SummaryIn a plan to develop tourism as a main public revenue source, the government has launched a massive marketing campaign it calls “All you need is Ecuador” – a slogan meant to evoke the Beatles’ song “All You Need is Love.” President Rafael Correa traveled to the United States to p...

Politics: More Bad News on Security Front
MEXICO · Report · 29 Apr 2015

Executive Summary Insecurity remains a complicated issue for the administration of President Enrique Peña, which has long cited positive trends in crime rates to refute critics, many of whom have warned since the very first days of the Peña administration that it lacks a clear strategy for combat...

Economics: Internal Market Takes Off
MEXICO · Report · 29 Apr 2015

Executive Summary The positive dynamic we observed in private consumption over the course of the second half of 2014 extended through the first quarter of 2015. Diverse variables have contributed to the extension of that positive trend. For starters, the economy’s formal sector wage mass grew by ...

Fiscal grievances and setbacks in Havana
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Apr 2015

Executive Summary Private consumption and investment were the key drivers of economic activity in 2014: household consumption was up a faster 5.1% in Q4, despite spending slowdown driven by the deteriorated oil outlook. The consumption of non-durables (33% of total consumption) expanded by 4.5%; ...

Government Under Pressure, but Can Still Win
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Apr 2015

Executive Summary With most polls showing the opposition more than 30 percentage points ahead of the PSUV, the official party will be hard pressed to win December’s legislative elections. International pressure to free political prisoners and allow observers to monitor the elections is growing. T...

A Lull in the Barrage of Bad News
UKRAINE · Report · 28 Apr 2015

Executive Summary Domestic tensions eased significantly in March and April. While economic problems and the military threat are still on the agenda, a dearth of breaking news from the Eastern front, and a strengthening of the hryvnia (to 22 per $1, from 30 in February) relieved the generally depr...

Successes and Conflicts in Executing the Adjustment: What’s Next?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Apr 2015

Executive Summary Four months have passed since the start of President Rousseff’s second term, and the greatest hope is on Joaquim Levy’s capacity to reverse the unfavorable inherited situation. The fiscal adjustment is under way, and initial hopes were that its execution, along with a weaker ...

A Semblance of Stability
INDONESIA · Report · 27 Apr 2015

Executive Summary A semblance of stability has been felt by the Indonesian business community since the rupiah strengthened a bit against the US dollar, at least narrowing the currency losses seen during the first quarter of the year. However, at the same time, business executives have also fe...

The Signs Sent by the Latest Data on New Consumer Lending
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Apr 2015

With the economy in recession and unemployment rising, the natural expectation was that banks would be more conservative in extending new loans, with negative reflections on household consumption. However, the figures on new lending for the first quarter this year show expansion in relation to th...

Week of April 27
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Apr 2015

The House committees analyzing the fiscal austerity provisional measures may vote on the measures. In the Senate, the index for state and municipal debt with the federal government may be voted upon. The Central Bank sets the benchmark interest rate.President Dilma Rousseff will consider making a...

Minimum wage policy in 2015
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Apr 2015

In coming days President Maduro will be announcing the minimum wage increase for May 1, Labor Day. The government’s urgency to regain public support ahead of the elections will lead to stronger and more frequent minimum wage increases this year. Our base case for 2015 is that Maduro will raise mi...

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