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Will Venezuela Honor Its Debt?
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Nov 2014

Executive Summary As oil prices continue to slip and an election year approaches, two questions are on everyone’s mind. First, will the government shift its adjustment strategy from one of attrition (import cuts; price, production, and trade controls; harsh punishments; and loose fiscal and monet...

IMF Deal is the Only Way Out
UKRAINE · Report · 27 Nov 2014

Executive SummaryUkraine is waiting for the creation of a new coalition. A great deal is riding on the effectiveness and efficiency of the Parliament and the new Cabinet. The parties, now negotiating coalition terms, can create a constitutional majority in Parliament, and in that case won’t have ...

Courageous First Steps
INDONESIA · Report · 27 Nov 2014

Executive Summary The Jokowi government began in earnest in November, with impromptu presidential visits to several places, beginning with the headquarters of the Indonesian Investment Board. That sent a strong signal that he wants to streamline the investment approval process, by introducing ...

GDP Growth Dips Anew...
PHILIPPINES · Report · 27 Nov 2014

Back in July this year, we wrote "the setback caused by the Supreme Court decision on public spending as well as the slowness in decongesting the Port of Manila threatens 3Q14 economic growth" and proceeded to pare our 2014 GDP growth forecast to 5.8%.("Chilling Effect", 17 July 2014 ) When Augus...

New Economic Team
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Nov 2014

New Economic Team Eases Market Concerns The choice of the new economic team eases market concerns.Joaquim Levy (Finance) and Nelson Barbosa (Planning) have excellent resumes.Levy, especially, is held in high esteem by the market. Doubts still remain as to whether this new team will have the auton...

Pure Populism
VENEZUELA · Report · 26 Nov 2014

Executive Summary With nationwide mayoral elections weeks away, the government has stepped up its “economic war” against what it calls greedy capitalists, ordering firms to sell products at steep discounts and blaming the private sector for inflation and shortages. President Maduro has vowed to u...

Economic Growth Improves in Q3 2014
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Nov 2014

According to rebased and re-weighted official figures released by Statistics South Africa, the inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.4% on a quarter-on-quarter (q/q) seasonally adjusted and annualized (saa) basis in the third quarter of 2014 (see Graph 1). This, after having n...

Between Popularity and Need
ECUADOR · Forecast · 25 Nov 2014

Executive SummaryWe’ve lowered our 2014 economic growth projections, to 3.8%-4% from 4.5%, given the post-August plunge in oil prices. We see the deficit at 5.8% of GDP, and the current account deficit remaining low, at 0.4% of GDP, driven by this year’s trade deficit shrinkage. This latter is co...

Where Are the Green Shoots?
CHILE · Report · 25 Nov 2014

Executive Summary Economists have systematically revised downward their expectations for Chilean GDP growth for both 2014 and 2015. Though fundamentals point to a near-term recovery, there are no signs of this yet. The devaluation of the peso and the fall in the price of oil should help the in...

The Coin is in the Air
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 25 Nov 2014

Executive Summary In the road toward the presidential election, an element that stands as an inflexion point is the resolution of the holdouts saga, which is keeping the Argentine Republic an outlaw of US justice and preventing access to international credit markets. How this issue is resolved wi...

GDP Firmed a Bit in Third Quarter
MEXICO · Report · 25 Nov 2014

Executive Summary Late last week the National Statistics Office (Inegi) released its report on third quarter GDP showing that the economy had grown 2.2% above levels of a year earlier. In response to the soft patch the Mexican economy experienced in August, when the monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) grew ...

Corruption: The Pending Reform
MEXICO · Report · 25 Nov 2014

Executive Summary Last Tuesday the wife of President Enrique Peña Nieto, Angélica Rivera, released a statement via YouTube intended to dispel rumors of how she came by a home in Mexico City’s exclusive Lomas de Chapultepec neighborhood, which the media quickly dubbed the “White House” as much for...

Economic Growth Improves in Q3 2014
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Nov 2014

According to rebased and re-weighted official figures released by Statistics South Africa, the inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.4% on a quarter-on-quarter (q/q) seasonally adjusted and annualized (saa) basis in the third quarter of 2014 (see Graph 1). This, after having n...

Three crucial snippets on fiscal viability, structural policies and the forint's exchange rate outlook
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Nov 2014

Fact: In this post, we report on three, relatively lightly reported episodes of Hungarian economic policy, which are more closely connected to each other than they might appear at first glance. These are: 1. On the periphery of the ongoing budget debate, parliament is discussing a draft governmen...

Oil Sector is Key
COLOMBIA · Forecast · 24 Nov 2014

Executive SummaryThe Government is expecting the Current Account Deficit to reach 4% of GDP this year, due to reduced oil exports. However, if oil prices fell to put the average annual price at $93 this year, the 2014 CAD could be as high as 4.4% of GDP. But the impact of lower oil prices could b...

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