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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Between Popularity and Need
ECUADOR · Forecast · 25 Nov 2014

Executive SummaryWe’ve lowered our 2014 economic growth projections, to 3.8%-4% from 4.5%, given the post-August plunge in oil prices. We see the deficit at 5.8% of GDP, and the current account deficit remaining low, at 0.4% of GDP, driven by this year’s trade deficit shrinkage. This latter is co...

Where Are the Green Shoots?
CHILE · Report · 25 Nov 2014

Executive Summary Economists have systematically revised downward their expectations for Chilean GDP growth for both 2014 and 2015. Though fundamentals point to a near-term recovery, there are no signs of this yet. The devaluation of the peso and the fall in the price of oil should help the in...

The Coin is in the Air
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 25 Nov 2014

Executive Summary In the road toward the presidential election, an element that stands as an inflexion point is the resolution of the holdouts saga, which is keeping the Argentine Republic an outlaw of US justice and preventing access to international credit markets. How this issue is resolved wi...

GDP Firmed a Bit in Third Quarter
MEXICO · Report · 25 Nov 2014

Executive Summary Late last week the National Statistics Office (Inegi) released its report on third quarter GDP showing that the economy had grown 2.2% above levels of a year earlier. In response to the soft patch the Mexican economy experienced in August, when the monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) grew ...

Corruption: The Pending Reform
MEXICO · Report · 25 Nov 2014

Executive Summary Last Tuesday the wife of President Enrique Peña Nieto, Angélica Rivera, released a statement via YouTube intended to dispel rumors of how she came by a home in Mexico City’s exclusive Lomas de Chapultepec neighborhood, which the media quickly dubbed the “White House” as much for...

Economic Growth Improves in Q3 2014
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Nov 2014

According to rebased and re-weighted official figures released by Statistics South Africa, the inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.4% on a quarter-on-quarter (q/q) seasonally adjusted and annualized (saa) basis in the third quarter of 2014 (see Graph 1). This, after having n...

Three crucial snippets on fiscal viability, structural policies and the forint's exchange rate outlook
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Nov 2014

Fact: In this post, we report on three, relatively lightly reported episodes of Hungarian economic policy, which are more closely connected to each other than they might appear at first glance. These are: 1. On the periphery of the ongoing budget debate, parliament is discussing a draft governmen...

Oil Sector is Key
COLOMBIA · Forecast · 24 Nov 2014

Executive SummaryThe Government is expecting the Current Account Deficit to reach 4% of GDP this year, due to reduced oil exports. However, if oil prices fell to put the average annual price at $93 this year, the 2014 CAD could be as high as 4.4% of GDP. But the impact of lower oil prices could b...

Political Insights: Week of November 24
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Nov 2014

Ministerial reform begins this week with the announcement of the economic team.The president will sanction a law that changes the debt index for States and Municipalities.In Congress, the government will try to vote on an adjustment to the primary surplus for 2014.In the economy, third quarter GD...

Inflation Stabilizes Near the Top of the Target Interval
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Nov 2014

The increase of 0.38% in the IPCA-15 for November was below the median of expectations, bringing the rate over the past 12 months to 6.42%, below the top of the target interval (6.5%). All signs are that there are no forces either for a noteworthy acceleration of inflation or of overcoming the ri...

The King is Dead, Long Live the King!
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Nov 2014

Executive Summary If the nomination, widely indicated in the press, of Joaquim Levy to be the new finance minister turns out to be true, the above proclamation will certainly apply. He’s an economist with a solid academic background and extensive experience in public service, both as treasury ...

Weekly Tracker: November 23-29
TURKEY · Report · 23 Nov 2014

Executive Summary The war against ISIS is marked last week by a couple of victories in Iraq (the capture of Beiji refinery) and Syria (the pushback of ISIS forces from Kobane), but the overall progress is very scant and uneven. In the meantime, Assad and al-Nusra are capturing territory in Syria....

The Gains To India From Lower Oil Prices
INDIA · Report · 21 Nov 2014

Executive Summary The dramatic decline in the price of crude oil has important implications for the Indian economy. Consumption of crude oil is slightly above 6% of GDP, so a halving of the price of crude oil is tantamount to a tax cut of 3 percentage points of GDP. Crude oil consumption divided ...

Do you have any questions for the Central Bank Governor?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 21 Nov 2014

Every year around this time we do a Q&A with a senior Philippines government official to close out the year and publish a Special Report with conclusions from the interview. This year, in light of what we think is high market interest at this time in US Fed actions and EM central bank responses, ...

MPC: Not So Dovish After All…
TURKEY · Report · 20 Nov 2014

In line with the consensus view, the MPC left all interest rates unchanged today: weekly repo rate at 8.25%; O/N lending and borrowing rates at 11.25% and 7.5%, respectively. Three aspects of the statement are worth highlighting. First, the Bank now hints at a moderate shift in the composition of...

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