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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Amid Struggle Between Titans, Opposition PRM Rises
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 19 May 2015

Executive Summary The economy grew by a robust 6% in Q1, with accumulated inflation only 0.64%, the Central Bank reported. Currency pressures declined in March, pushing net international reserves up slightly, while tax revenues rose in line with nominal GDP growth rates. Spending also accelerated...

Is Beijing backsliding on rebalancing?
CHINA FINANCIAL · In Brief · 18 May 2015

Yes and no. The PBoC cut lending and deposit rates May 10, but raised the deposit ceiling and pressured banks to maintain deposit rates. They’re trying to rebalance but it's tough. Growth was probably unexpectedly low, but for the past 3-4 years I've said growth must grind lower because Beijing c...

How Far Will the Current Monetary Tightening Go?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 May 2015

The market is reacting to the signals sent by the Central Bank and expects a continuing increase in the interest rate. Last week the yield curve indicated that the market expects the SELIC rate to be raised by 50 basis points at the next COPOM meeting, and that this would not be the last hike. Af...

Week of May 18
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 May 2015

The fiscal austerity measures remain on the political agenda. The House may vote on the bill on payroll tax exemptions and on MP 668/15 (PIS and Cofins for imports). In the Senate, analysis of MP 665/14, on unemployment insurance and salary bonuses, is on the agenda. By Friday, the government wil...

Without an External Impulse, the Recession Will be Longer
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 May 2015

Executive Summary Brazil has entered a recession in which, because of the high inflation and the need for fiscal adjustment, the authorities cannot use counter-cyclical measures. And unlike the recession of 2008-2009, the country cannot count on an impulse from abroad either. With the apprecia...

Weekly Tracker: May 17-23
TURKEY · Report · 17 May 2015

Executive Summary With three weeks left to the ballot date, opinion polls mostly reflect the political bias of the polling company, rather than the reality. We stick to our forecast of a weak AKP victory, with HDP making it to the parliament. Yet, it is quite possible that voters are lying to pol...

Heading for the Homestretch
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 14 May 2015

Executive Summary The government of Benigno Aquino is heading towards its last year in office basking in glowing reviews about the resilience and growth potential of the economy.As the din characteristic of pre-election Philippines grows louder, many wonder whether they will see a more active Pre...

Economics: Credit Still Flowing to Businesses
MEXICO · Report · 13 May 2015

Executive Summary In keeping with the recovery seen in internal consumption of recent months, bank credit for durable goods purchases increased in each of the first three months of 2015 and in the process capped a 14-month long contraction in the availability of such loans. However, credit issued...

Growth & Fiscal Policy Remain Largely Intact
HUNGARY · Report · 13 May 2015

Executive Summary Preliminary Q1 2015 GDP (+0.6% qoq, +3.1% yoy sda) was slightly down from last year but growth is still running at relatively high pace, due to strong consumer demand and impressive export data. The government’s 2015 GDP forecast has been raised to 3.1%, suggesting that the econ...

Politics: The New Face of Organized Crime
MEXICO · Report · 12 May 2015

Executive Summary Over the course of an eight-year government offensive against drug trafficking, the structure of organized crime has morphed and fragmented considerably. Gone are almost all of the drug cartels of yesteryear and in their place have emerged myriad criminal gangs that are more foc...

Cabinet Shuffle in Chile
CHILE · Report · 12 May 2015

Cabinet shuffles are common in Chile. Indeed, most cabinets do not survive a president’s first year of office intact. In that sense yesterday’s cabinet shuffle comes as no surprise and may even be seen as slightly overdue.

Week of May 11
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 May 2015

The House votes on another fiscal austerity measure: MP 664/14 (pension and sick leave). In the Senate, the appointment of Luiz Edson Fachin to the Supreme Court will be analyzed. On Friday, President Dilma may launch the concessions program, an attempt by the government to implement a positive a...

The Pre-Crisis Credit Boom
INDIA · Report · 11 May 2015

In Y. V. Reddy's period as governor (6/Sep/2003 to 5/Sep/2008), there was vigorous pursuit of exchange rate policy. In an attempt to defend the dollar, RBI purchased a lot of foreign assets and paid for this using rupees. These rupees distorted domestic monetary policy. At a time of the biggest e...

The Stock Market and Economic Activity
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 May 2015

From the way things are going now, nobody doubts that the Brazilian economy is entering a recession period. The doubt (and worry) is over how deep and how long the downturn will be. Although the recession will not be as deep as that in 2008-2009, it will probably be a good deal more persistent. N...

Weekly Tracker: May 10-16
TURKEY · Report · 10 May 2015

Executive Summary Turkish election campaigns have mutated into a three-way mudslinging match between AKP-MHP and HDP, while CHP has been marketing hugely expensive populist promises. We have a large number of polls, but they don’t increase our comfort with predictions.HDP is hovering right at the...

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