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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Economy After the Holdouts Solution
ARGENTINA · Report · 31 Mar 2016

The government delivered quite positively the first phase of its program of “economic normalization”. A key step was the progress in resolving the long-standing litigation with the holdouts. This includes the constructive negotiations and agreements already signed with nearly 90% of the holdouts ...

Stagnation Ahead
UKRAINE · Forecast · 31 Mar 2016

Rather confusing signals for the Ukrainian economy emanated from the first months of this year. On the one hand, resource prices strengthened, meaning that deeper economic decline is unlikely. On the other, a corruption scandal involving President Petro Poroshenko’s cronies has effectively blocke...

Headline GDP is impressive, but the details are much less so
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Mar 2016

Turkish GDP expanded by an impressive – and higher-than-expected -- 5.7%, y/y, in the final quarter of the year, resulting in 4% growth for the year as a whole (2014: 3%). The figure no doubt makes an impressive headline, but the details suggest some caution. First, in seasonally- and working day...

SA Constitutional Court Issues Verdict on the President and the Parliament
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 31 Mar 2016

Arguably, today's SA Constitutional Court's (ConCourt) verdict is its most significant judgement in the country's young and evolving constitutional democracy. The verdict deals with an important clarification about the binding, or otherwise, of the country's Public Protector Office findings- one ...

PMDB leaves governing coalition, initiates Temer Plan
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Mar 2016

The PMDB has officially left Dilma Rousseff’s governing coalition during a public act that lasted 4 minutes. The party also decided that all party members in the Executive branch must resign their posts. The former minister of the Civil Aviation Secretariat (SAC), Moreira Franco, stated that part...

Maduro Needs Rain
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Mar 2016

The opposition hasn’t decided which path to take to force Maduro out of office before his term ends, whether to push for a recall referendum or to seek a constitutional amendment. Neither path would be easy: both would involve going through the government-friendly Supreme Tribunal of Justice, the...

Two heads-up: Terror and referendum risks
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 Mar 2016

I wish to share with my audience two time-sensitive pieces of information that I believe are pertinent to economic and market performance. Before I start, it is important to emphasize that I do all my research based on open sources and have no private information of the likelihood of either event...

Lawyers Will Change (Almost) Everything for Peace
COLOMBIA · Report · 29 Mar 2016

Executive Summary Colombia is a country of lawyers. The FARC has finally absorbed that lesson: to grasp power, instead of AK-47 held by poor peasants, it would need norms, regulations and jurisdictions. That is the stuff lawyers live for. In this vein, the FARC’s quintessential product is the Sp...

New Fiscal Measures: Another Step Backwards
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Mar 2016

Last week Finance Minister Nelson Barbosa announced four proposals from the government in the fiscal policy field: renegotiation of the debts owed by the state governments; establishment of a primary spending limit; creation of a special spending contingency regime; and a change in the way the Ce...

Week of March 28
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Mar 2016

The PMDB’s decision to stay with or leave the governing coalition is seen as the Planalto’s first battle against the impeachment. The government is concerned about the impact of the PMDB’s departure on other allies. The STF may examine the appointment of former President Lula to the Civil House. ...

The Labor Market Continues to Weaken
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Mar 2016

The latest CAGED data reveal another increase in net layoffs. A natural reaction of many of these workers is to become self-employed (or start doing odd jobs). All the same, the unemployment rate is growing: from about 6.5% at the start of 2014 it is now approaching double digits.

A setback for the PPP program
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Mar 2016

Just weeks after announcing that it will “gift wrap” $6.64 billion worth of infrastructure projects for the next administration by bidding out 10 to 11 public private partnership (PPP) projects before end-June, government suffered a major setback today as no bidders showed up for the auction of t...

Weekly Tracker: Mar 27-Apr 2
TURKEY · Report · 27 Mar 2016

PM Davutoglu announced that AKP’s draft Constitution will be presented to parliament by late May/early June, which means a general floor vote on a nation-wide referendum. We go further and claim that a snap election is a serious possibility. An American prosecutor ordered the arrest of Turkish...

Meeting the New Challenges
PANAMA · Report · 24 Mar 2016

The IMF’s Article IV report published on March 19th is in tune with our concerns and perspectives in regards to macroeconomic conditions: strong growth projections remain in place (around 5.9%-6% for 2016); the fiscal deficit in 2015 was 2.8% of GDP not the 2.0% that the MEF reported after the “a...

Guatemala: Reverting to Normal
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 24 Mar 2016

After a rollercoaster year, with the political situation driving the action, Guatemala seems to be normalizing. Back are the days when corruption scandals erupted almost every month, and people were calling for the resignation of President Pérez and Vice President Baldetti -- both now in prison,...

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