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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Rating sovereign credit
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 01 Jul 2015

Special points to highlight in this issue: The recent turmoil in China’s stock markets have changed the mood among investors who expected, perhaps foolishly, that they would have a chance to get out quickly at the first sign of trouble. It is hard to say what impact this will have on investor psy...

Inflation Accelerates
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Jun 2015

Inflation continues accelerating. We forecast the July monthly CPI inflation rate at 13.0 percent, close to our revised June estimate (13.3 percent). The second minimum wage increase of 10 percent decreed by president Maduro in May 2015 enters into effect in July. We forecast that the shortage in...

Part II: Has the recession ended? Balance sheet problems of banks and borrowers
INDIA · Report · 30 Jun 2015

Executive Summary While the official GDP numbers are showing an optimistic picture, trusted firm databases suggest that the recession which began in Q1 2012 has not ended. In the second part of our discussion of the recent GDP figures and business cycle conditions, we look at the current balance ...

Fragile Stability
UKRAINE · Forecast · 30 Jun 2015

Executive Summary Ukraine’s economic situation has improved significantly. GDP performance is still horrendous (at -17.2% y/y in Q1); however, the main reason for this development is the loss of the Eastern Donbas. Simultaneously, the economic position of the rest of mainland Ukraine has stabiliz...

Electoral Economics
ARGENTINA · Report · 29 Jun 2015

Executive Summary While the fiscal imbalance continues to deteriorate, activity indicators have been showing signs of improvement over the last months. Such relatively “benign” economic change ahead of the elections is no coincidence. Contrary to 2014, the Government has not only relaxed its fisc...

Week of June 29
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jun 2015

President Dilma Rousseff is in the USA with the goal of attracting investments to the country, especially in the area of infrastructure.The Senate receives the bill on payroll tax exemptions and the provisional measure on the minimum wage.It also discusses the rules requiring Petrobras participat...

The Weakening of the Labor Market According to Three Data Sources
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Jun 2015

The result of the Monthly Employment Survey (PME) published last week strengthens the perception that the job market is getting weaker. The PME estimates the figures on employment in the formal and informal sectors in six metropolitan regions, and according to the latest results the 12-month grow...

Government Losing Steam
PERU · Report · 29 Jun 2015

Executive Summary President Ollanta Humala’s regime is rapidly losing its ability to govern, as his party has lost its plurality in Congress. Many members of the ruling party have defected, and Humala no longer has the congressional support he needs in order to advance major structural reforms. T...

EL SALVADOR: President Earns Low Marks for His First Year
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Jun 2015

Executive Summary We give El Salvador’s new presidential administration a low grade for its first year in office. Growth is still sluggish, and other troubles persist, such as uncontrolled public debt. The adverse business climate is reflected in low private investment, driven by the government’s...

Hungary is looking ahead to incalculable Greek events with healthy fundamentals
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Jun 2015

Most recent events with regard to Greece have proven to be genuinely incalculable, and so it may continue in the forthcoming days and weeks. As the potential capital market consequences on Europe and perhaps even more on the eastern side of the continent may be significant, it is good to remember...

Weekly Tracker: June 28-July 4
TURKEY · Report · 28 Jun 2015

Executive Summary Heads up!If a large variety of Turkish news sources are to be believed President Erdogan and PM Davutoglu already ordered the military to march into Syria to defend Turkey’s borders. We don’t quite find the news sensible, but remain very alarmed about the prospect of Turkish boo...

Will Political Turmoil Affect Economic Performance?
PANAMA · Forecast · 26 Jun 2015

Executive Summary The economy is running at a steady pace: we project a 5.9% GDP growth in 2015 and 6.1% in 2016. The political climate is the most worrisome in the two-and-a-half decades after the demise of the military dictatorship due to corruption scandals during the Martinelli administration...

Signs of Stagflation?
INDONESIA · Report · 26 Jun 2015

Executive Summary Similar to April, May 2015 was considered another critical month for the trade balance for Indonesia. In the previous years, the period starting from the third month prior to Ramadan was considered critical because of the spike in imports. However this year the months of Apri...

Strong Contraction of Credit
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Jun 2015

Executive Summary Since the level of nonperforming loans started to creep upward in late 2011-early 2012, private banks have been extremely cautious in extending new credit, both to consumers and companies. The most recent data indicate sharper contraction of non-earmarked credit and less impe...

A Bumpy Inflation Landscape
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 26 Jun 2015

Headline inflation has accelerated from 4% year on year (y/y) in March 2015 to 4.6% y/y in May 2015. Producer price inflation for final manufactured goods increased significantly, to 3.6% y/y in May 2015 from 3.0% y/y recorded in April. Essentially, the trend in domestic inflation has reversed co...

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