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Risk Premiums and Exchange Rate at the Start of the Temer Administration
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 May 2016

As the start of the Temer government approaches, we want to answer two questions that are often raised: assuming the new government obtains sufficient political support to carry out the structural reforms necessary for the fiscal adjustment, can a sharp drop in the risk premiums be expected, hast...

Why is the forint so weak today?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 May 2016

Since January, the forint has been firmly holding the EURHUF 310-315 range, even frequently trying to break out at the strong end, which the MNB has been fighting against fervently. But today, it weakened to EURHUF 316, following some initial decline to EURHUF 314 on Friday. So what happened? We ...

Bankruptcy reforms
INDIA · Report · 09 May 2016

An orderly process for handling defaults on debt obligations, by individuals or by firms, is lacking in India. The new Companies Act, 2013, did not solve the problem. The RBI has come up with a few bank-centric programs such as the CDR or SDR, and they do not solve the problem. This is a major im...

​Who is afraid of Rodrigo Duterte? (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 May 2016

It is over but for the full counting. With 45% of the votes in, Mayor Duterte is now ahead 2:1. Most observers are just happy that the elections were peaceful and clean and that the mayor will secure a clear mandate at 40%. This is around the same as President Aquino's in 2010 that helped him gov...

The New Government and the Interest Rate Decline
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 May 2016

Backed by the changes in the economic policy field, the most important of which is the major shift in fiscal policy, the Central Bank under the coming Temer government will likely start an easing cycle. Although inflation is still very high, important forces are at work to reduce it, mainly: the ...

Weekly Tracker: May 8-14
TURKEY · Report · 08 May 2016

Prime Minister Davutoglu’s departure illustrated the highly unpredictable nature of Turkish politics, lending further credence to our scenario of steadily rising risks for the rest of the year. We can’t guarantee that Deputy PM Mehmet Simsek will retain his post in the new government, or struct...

Encouraging Signs
CHINA · Forecast · 06 May 2016

Though the 6.7% y/y GDP rise in Q1 represented a slowdown from Q4 2015, improved principal indicators bolster our confidence in future growth. Industrial output was up 6.8% y/y in March, a 0.7 pps rise from Q4. Fixed asset investment excluding agriculture rose 10.7% y/y, up 1.4 pps, with growth e...

Hibernation: A state of inactivity and metabolic depression
CHILE · Report · 06 May 2016

Data concerning sectorial activity reveal an economy that continues to grow at very low rates. Nominal retail sales growth went down. The index, beyond the fluctuation in February, has been flat during the year. Decomposing the index, it becomes evident that even though sales of non-durable good...

Things Are Looking Up
PERU · Forecast · 06 May 2016

Due to better domestic and external conditions, our economic outlook is more optimistic than at the time of our last Quarterly, on February 1st. Growth is rebounding powerfully, driven by expansion of primary activities, which in turn have been spurred by the activities of two mega mines. For 2...

Timid Signs of Recovery
UKRAINE · Report · 06 May 2016

New statistical data and the formation of a new government in Kyiv offered a small dose of optimism. True, new Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman is part of the old system, and we have our reservations about calling him a “reformer.” Yet, the Cabinet’s initial moves are moves in the right directio...

The Supreme Court suspends Eduardo Cunha
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 May 2016

The verdict delivered by Brazil’s Supreme Court (STF) to suspend Eduardo Cunha (PMDB), president of the House of Representatives, is an act of hyper-judicialization of politics. The judicial intervention evidences the inability of the House to solve a serious political problem within its own rank...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 May 2016

BUILDING A VIRTUOUS CIRCLE - The acceptance of the impeachment motion by the Chamber of Deputies by a comfortable majority sealed, from a political point of view, the end of the Rousseff administration. There are still legal steps to take place, as the ones running in the Senate, but de facto pol...

The Picture Darkens
MEXICO · Report · 05 May 2016

Hard indicators published in April painted a more somber picture of the Mexican economy, beginning with a 14.2% plunge in the number of cars and light trucks exported in March, and an 11% fall in the number made, despite record domestic demand. Manufacturing export activity in general has shrunk,...

​Farewell to Davutoglu..and parliamentary democracy
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 May 2016

At the day the EU Commission proposed lifting the visa barrier to Turkish citizens, president Erdogan decided to dismiss premier Davutoglu, denying him the biggest victory of his brief career and demonstrating convincingly that parliamentary democracy is dead in Turkey. To remind readers, Erdogan...

Reuters news
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 May 2016

Replying to your queries, I'm posting the Reuters news item in Turkish I referred to in my morning update ANALİZ-Davutoğlu ile anayasa başta olmak üzere bazı konularda fikir ayrılığına düşen Erdoğan, AKP'de olağanüstü kongre için harekete geçebilir - Reuters News 03-May-2016 05:25:30 PM Ercan Gur...

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