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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

What Can Be Expected for Household Consumption
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Aug 2016

The signs that the recession is reaching the end are becoming clearer. Our leading indicator, which combines indicators from the international and domestic economies, points to an end in the third quarter this year. The unanimous recovery of the confidence indicators produced by FGV strengthens t...

Weekly Macro Highlights and outlook
ISRAEL · In Brief · 01 Aug 2016

Full employment likely to support wage pressure The labor market in Israel is rapidly tightening, supporting wage pressure.Unemployment declined to 4.8% in Q216.For the 25-64 age group unemployment declined to 4.0% in Q216 from 4.5% in Q1.In June, unemployment declined further to 3.9%.Job growth ...

Weathering the Storm
COLOMBIA · Report · 31 Jul 2016

The July rituals mark the beginning of the new season of congressional sessions. Out of the many initiatives presented to Congress for approval, the two fundamental narratives of the current legislative period, running from July 20th 2016 to June 20th 2017, are the approval of a legal peace agree...

The Morning After: The Panama Papers, the Waked Affair and the Challenges to the Banking Sector
PANAMA · Report · 31 Jul 2016

The Monthly Economic Activity Index climbed by a surprising 5.2% y/y in May, and 4.2% for the first five months of the year, compared with the same period in 2015. That’s good news, coming on the heels of the Panama Papers and Waked Affair scandals, though the IMAE continues to show a persistent ...

Turkey at a Crossroads
TURKEY · Forecast · 31 Jul 2016

Any seasoned observer of Turkey’s economy and politics would make a mockery of our title, but this time it seems for real. Following this month’s unsuccessful coup attempt, which was thwarted by an impressively unified response from a coalition of forces -- the government, the opposition, securit...

Car manufacturing: good news and bad news
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Jul 2016

Yesterday, the local media was flooded by news and instant analysis on Mercedes' freshly announced plans to build a €1bn worth of new production complex at Kecskemét (South-Eastern Hungary). The new factory is intended to include car body production and painting units, in addition to an assembly ...

What kinds of reforms?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 29 Jul 2016

Special points to highlight in this issue: • The orthodox macroeconomic model, which dominates mainstream thinking about China, implicitly assumes that the main determinant of economic growth is the mix of a country’s assets – not just capital assets but also other, less tangible assets such a...

Fiscal Talks Likely to Take a Back Seat
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 29 Jul 2016

Discussion of political reform is very likely to precede talks over electrical sector reform, and the so-called Fiscal Pact. Business leaders have stressed that good party and electoral laws are a priority, a view shared by almost all civic organizations. The government has been responsive, and h...

Labor market rapidly tightening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 29 Jul 2016

In Q216 the unemployment rate declined to 4.8% from 5.2% in Q116 (seasonally adjusted data). Looking at the more important age group (closely followed by the BOI) of 25-64 (excluding soldiers and students), unemployment declined to 4.0% in Q2 from 4.5% in Q1. This age group witnessed an increase ...

COSTA RICA: Deficit Solution Needed
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Jul 2016

Our short-term outlook for Costa Rica calls for moderate growth with financial stability, but continued fiscal vulnerability. Recent developments suggest that the fiscal situation will be better than expected, though, as government revenues rose faster than spending. But the deficit is still larg...

Economics: Confusion over Poverty Statistics
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jul 2016

The National Statistics Institute (Inegi) published on Friday, July 15, the results of its Module of Socio-economic Conditions (MCS) for 2015, the study in which the agency measures information that allows the National Council for the Evaluation of Social Development Policy (Coneval) to calculate...

Politics: Officials Boxed Into Corner on Reform
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jul 2016

Protests by teachers have led to government negotiations on several levels in the past two weeks. After engaging in talks with the dissident faction of the teachers’ union in an effort to end the crisis posed by the roadblocks hardline anti education-reform protestors are periodically setting up ...

Brexit Stokes Yuan Uncertainty
CHINA · Report · 26 Jul 2016

GDP grew 6.7% y/y in Q2, the same rate as in Q1. There’s downward pressure on future growth, though we also expect growth to stabilize. Industrial output was up 6.1% y/y. Though growth was 0.3 pps faster than in Q1, the recovery is weak. Fixed asset investment rose 8.2% y/y in real terms, dow...

​Unfazed By Politics, Ratings, the CBRT Intends Further Easing
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Jul 2016

The CBRT Governor Murat Cetinkaya presented the third (his second) Inflation Report of the year today. The yearend inflation forecasts for both 2016 and 2017 have been kept at 7.5% and 6% (mid-points), respectively, with some changes in composition, as we had surmised on Sunday. For 2016, in part...

Maduro likes how the military governs
VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Jul 2016

By promoting General Vladimir Padrino López as virtual head of cabinet (some say co-president) and praising his governing abilities, Maduro is trying to take power and political responsibility off of his shoulders and onto those of the military, which has so far shown its full support. By acce...

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