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On Guard
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 13 May 2016

President Putin put an end to a long-lasting rivalry between law enforcement agencies by dissolving some and creating a new federal service, the National Guard, which will be in charge of all internal troops. The new agency that will have control over almost all armed units inside the country is ...

Very poor GDP data for Q1
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 May 2016

The first estimate of Q1 GDP was a very bad surprise this morning, with -0.8% qoq, +0.5% yoy on sda basis. This went against a +2.3-2.4% yoy analyst consensus on Reuters and Bloomberg, and +2% yoy in Portfolio.hu's domestic poll. The Q1 data followed +1% qoq, 3% yoy in Q4 2015. All this seems to ...

Temer in Command
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 May 2016

Social Security reform, obligatory federal spending and control of public debt are the three priorities for the interim president.

Parliament gives green way for appointing Yuriy Lutsenko as General Prosecutor
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 May 2016

Today parliament voted in a law that allows appointing General Prosecutor a person without legal education. This step was presented to the public as an effort to bring on board someone “not from the system”. At the same time critiques blame the authorities that this change in reality was designed...

Elections update
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 12 May 2016

This Sunday May 15 the Dominican Republic will hold national elections. These elections are complex because they are simultaneously at three levels: for President and Vice-President, for Congress (32 senators and 190 representatives), and municipal authorities. 158 Mayors (and deputy mayors) will...

Who is afraid of Rodrigo Duterte? (3)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 12 May 2016

The business community finally got a preview of what presumptive president Rodrigo Duterte’s economic program would be. In a press conference late today, former agriculture secretary Carlos “Sonny” Dominguez and a member of Mr. Duterte’s transition team, presented a concise 8-point economic agend...

Senate approves impeachment admissibility and Dilma will be removed
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 May 2016

The Senate has approved the admissibility of the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff, with 57 votes in favor, 21 against and one abstention. Four senators did not participate: Renan Calheiros (PMDB-AL); Jáder Barbalho (PMDB-PA). Eduardo Braga (PMDB-Amazonas), on medical leave, and Pedro Chave...

Economics: Consumption and Credit Sustain Growth
MEXICO · Report · 11 May 2016

According to the National Statistics Office’s preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter of 2016, the Mexican economy grew 2.7% between January and March compared to the same quarter a year earlier. The report was in line with GEA’s estimate of 2.6%. Preliminary GDP growth was driven prim...

Shortages drive inflation up
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 May 2016

Inflation remains high and rising. In our view, shortages and black market food prices are driving inflation up despite parallel market rate stability and slower money supply growth since mid-April.

Politics: A Year of both Progress and Inaction
MEXICO · Report · 11 May 2016

The first year of the LXIII Congress (2015-2018) concluded with considerably fewer achievements than had initially been hoped for as the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto has apparently lost the ability it demonstrated during its first two years in office to promote its own legislati...

​AKP has made its choice
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 May 2016

It is 90% certain that AKP will introduce a mini package of Constitutional amendments to the Grand Assembly by mid-June to allow the president to remain a party member. Called “the semi-presidential system” in the Turkish political lingo would presumably allow Erdogan to retain the party chairman...

Impeachment Reaches the Senate Floor
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 May 2016

As expected, impeachment proceedings will move ahead tomorrow, Wednesday, May 11, after a very confusing Monday, which ended with interim Lower House President, Representative Waldir Maranhão, revoking his own call to annul impeachment sessions in the Lower House. The Senate is expected to appro...

Unemployment Increases in the First Quarter of 2016
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 10 May 2016

Unemployment increased in the first quarter of 2016 according to the latest labor force survey results released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). Recording 26.7% for the period from January-March 2016, unemployment rose by 2.2 percentage points quarter on quarter (q/q) after it registered 24...

Impeachment proceedings likely to carry on
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 May 2016

Below we summarize the current political climate after interim House President Waldir Maranhão (PP-MA) annulled the House vote on the impeachment:

Deepening stagflation
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 09 May 2016

We forecast for 2016–2017 deepening stagflation with no Pdvsa or Venezuela default—at least not in 2016. GDP shrinks by 10.0 percent in 2016 and 5.2 percent in 2017; inflation is 623.4 percent this year and 926.9 percent next year. We premise this outlook on the assumption that current policies r...

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