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Turkish Politics: Fine at Home, Getting Tricky Abroad
TURKEY · Report · 16 Aug 2016 · 1 response

At the one month anniversary of the coup attempt, I find myself increasingly removed from what I view as the majority view about Turkish politics. At home, I remain a relative optimist regarding the future of democracy. Abroad, a strategic alliance with Russia or Iran remains a pipedream. Turkey...

Feeding Inflation and Recession
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Aug 2016 · 1 response

The minimum wage increase announced by President Maduro on August 12 enters into effect in two weeks. It’s the third hike imposed by decree this year and brings about a 50 percent increase in the minimum wage and a 129 percent increase in the food bonus. The monthly total minimum income rises by ...

Costly to Sovereignty
ECUADOR · Report · 15 Aug 2016

Central Bank President Diego Martinez continues to deny that Ecuador is experiencing an economic crisis, and prefers to call the 3% of GDP plunge in Q1 a “cooling down of the economy,” due mostly to external factors.He also seemed confident that H2 would bring recovery, and only 2.5% shrinkage, a...

Inflation surprises on the upside as housing rental prices accelerate
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Aug 2016

Inflation in July surprised on the upside, reaching -0.6% y-o-y (we had expected -0.8%) and 0.4% m-o-m. Granted, this is a seasonally high CPI but the acceleration of housing prices (rental equivalents) to 2.4% y-o-y from 1.9% last month explains the higher inflation y-o-y. Although this is a vol...

Inflation: When Will it Start to Fall More Intensely?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Aug 2016 · 4 responses

​With the Central Bank firmly indicating it will pursue the 4.5% target in 2017, the inflation expectations measured in the Focus survey for that year have declined steeply, and the downward effect on real inflation is enhanced by the large negative GDP gap. Why against this favorable backdrop is...

Week of August 15
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Aug 2016

​On Tuesday, August 16, the electoral campaign for mayors and aldermen begins. The Senate will try to vote on the first round of the DRU. Demonstrations have been scheduled in favor of the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff on Sunday, August 21, the day of the Olympics Closing Ceremony.

A more expansionary fiscal policy could damage credibility if economy slows
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Aug 2016

Weekly Highlights: Fiscal policy has become increasingly expansionary since end-2015. Fiscal expenditure increased by 6% per year in 2015 and 2016. Expenditure in the 2017-2018 will expand by 5% per year (nominal). In essence the fiscal expenditure growth cap has been abandoned. The fiscal defici...

Security Trumps Economics
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 14 Aug 2016

Changes in key regional and federal level appointments, and the replacement of three regional governors with former security service officers -- two of them President Vladimir Putin’s former bodyguards – deepen the trend toward increased law enforcement influence in government. They also show tha...

Positive surprise in Q2 GDP
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Aug 2016

GDP growth in Q2 2016 came out as 1.1% qoq, 1.7% yoy on sda basis, a remarkable recovery from a revised -0.7% qoq, 0.7% yoy in the previous quarter. We expected 0.5% qoq, and the analyst consensus was 0.6% qoq, so the actual data was for sure a big positive surprise. As usual, the statistical off...

From confusion to de jure inflation targeting
INDIA · Report · 11 Aug 2016

For many decades, the RBI has claimed it pursues multiple objectives based on looking at multiple indicators and using multiple instruments. Critics argued that this was a fancy phrase to describe the lack of a monetary policy framework. A series of expert committee reports, starting with the Per...

​Fiscal policy turns more expansionary
ISRAEL · Report · 11 Aug 2016

The fiscal policy of the present government (and especially that of the MOF Minister Kachlon) has been characterized by fairly high rapid growth in government expenditure as well as tax reductions. This policy commenced in the 2016 budget (as the 2015 budget was only approved in November 2015) an...

Economics: Pemex, Public Finance Weaken
MEXICO · Report · 11 Aug 2016

Last month, Pemex announced its second quarter of 2016 results. Despite a slight recovery in oil prices during the year and a fall in its tax payments, the company’s financial situation continues to weaken rapidly. The news is not encouraging on almost any level, and the company’s situation h...

Politics: Dark Cloud Envelops Business-Government Ties
MEXICO · Report · 11 Aug 2016

Relations between government and business soured early during the administration of President Enrique Peña after passage of a fiscal reform that raised rates and closed loopholes. Worse yet, business leaders felt that the door had been closed to the sort of dialogue they had been accustomed to. T...

Russia starts provocations in Crimea
UKRAINE · In Brief · 11 Aug 2016

Something strange has started in Crimea. On Monday, August 8th, Crimean inhabitants reported in social nets that checkpoints at the entrance to the peninsular were blocked on the Russian side. Observers heard some shootings and saw Russian military maneuvering close to the Ukrainian checkpoints. ...

Digging itself in deeper
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 10 Aug 2016

The speech delivered on August 9 by Tibisay Lucena, president of the National Electoral Council (CNE), marks the beginning of a phase of heightened conflict and uncertainty in Venezuelan politics. Her words suggesting "end of October" as a possible date for collection of the "manifestations of wi...

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