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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Signs Sent by the Latest Data on New Consumer Lending
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Apr 2015

With the economy in recession and unemployment rising, the natural expectation was that banks would be more conservative in extending new loans, with negative reflections on household consumption. However, the figures on new lending for the first quarter this year show expansion in relation to th...

Week of April 27
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Apr 2015

The House committees analyzing the fiscal austerity provisional measures may vote on the measures. In the Senate, the index for state and municipal debt with the federal government may be voted upon. The Central Bank sets the benchmark interest rate.President Dilma Rousseff will consider making a...

Minimum wage policy in 2015
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Apr 2015

In coming days President Maduro will be announcing the minimum wage increase for May 1, Labor Day. The government’s urgency to regain public support ahead of the elections will lead to stronger and more frequent minimum wage increases this year. Our base case for 2015 is that Maduro will raise mi...

Yuan Appreciation is Hurting Manufacturing
CHINA · Report · 27 Apr 2015

Executive Summary GDP growth hit a new low in Q1, with its 7% y/y rise just a 0.3 pp uptick from Q4 2014. Value added for major industrial firms rose only 6.4% y/y, down 1.2 pps from Q4. Industrial output growth took the biggest hit, falling to 5.6% y/y in March. Retail sales of social consumptio...

Abinader defeats Mejia by a landslide in Presidental nomination bid
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 27 Apr 2015

Yesterday, the Partido Revolucionario Moderno (PRM) elected its Presidential nominee for the 2016 general elections. According to the second bulletin released by the National Organizing Commission of the PRM convention, Luís Abinader defeated former President Hipólito Mejía by a landslide. Abinad...

Macri’s favorite wins primaries in the City of Buenos Aires
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 27 Apr 2015 · 2 responses

In yesterday’s simultaneous primary election (PASO) in the City of Buenos Aires, Horacio Larreta, Macri’s favorite, won the PROs primaries, with a significant difference ahead of his direct competitor, Gabriela Michetti, or any other candidates from different parties, for that matter. At current ...

To Elections, On Choppy Waters
TURKEY · Forecast · 26 Apr 2015

Executive Summary Ceteris paribus turned out to be a pretty bad assumption to make, with Turkey underperforming its peers significantly so far in the year despite the boon of a sharply dropping oil price. Post-election uncertainties that have begun to dawn on investors and the ongoing pressures o...

Akhmetov arranges ‘miners’ protests’
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 Apr 2015

Last week we witnessed very interesting event. On Thursday April 23 Kyiv was flooded with thousands of people of strange appearance which called themselves miners. From news releases we learned that ‘miners started their strike against closing of state coal-mines’. Activists and journalists tried...

Assessing the latest MNB rate cut and fiscal announcements
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Apr 2015

That the MNB reduced its base rate by 15 bps to 1.8% on April 21 was almost a non-event in the sense that essentially everyone on the market expected exactly this. That the rate cut had absolutely no immediate impact on the EURHUF exchange rate, which has been stuck in a narrow 297-302 range over...

EL SALVADOR: Still All About Growth
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 23 Apr 2015

Executive Summary The outlook for El Salvador´s economy is still bleak, despite minor improvements in certain variables amid favorable external conditions.Real GDP is expected to grow 2.3%-2.5% in 2015 and 2016. That’s a bit of an improvement over previous years, but insufficient to significantly...

Petrobras' Financial Statement Disclosure
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Apr 2015

Quick Snapshot Impairment of 44 billion reais, or 14.8 billion dollars6.2 billion reais ($2.1 billion) due to corruptionR$ 199 billion worth of contracts analyzed to calculate loss from corruptionNet loss of R$21 billionDisclosure was fully approved by PricewaterhouseCoopersResults for the first ...

​HDP and CHP’s election promises corner AKP
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Apr 2015

It is encouraging to see that Turkish media is paying greater attention to parties' election manifestos to judge their fitness for power; it is to be hoped that the electorate would do the same. We have already covered AKP’s 400 plus page behemoth which we deemed lacking excitement and rather sel...

Customs Commissioner Resigns
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Apr 2015

Should we be worried that Customs Commissioner John Phillip Sevilla has resigned? After all, Mr. Sevilla, who was appointed in late 2013, is credited with the impressive 21% growth in import duty collections last year that helped to raise the overall tax effort in 2014 by another 0.3% of GDP. Wer...

MPC: Pass-Through, What’s That?
TURKEY · Report · 22 Apr 2015

Today, the Monetary Policy Committee kept all interest rates unchanged (Graph 1) and tweaked macro-prudential ratios a little, all as expected. The latter involved raising interest rates on TL-based required reserves by 50 bps and reducing the rate charged on F/X borrowings of banks from the CBRT...

Politics: How the Public Might Vent Its Ire
MEXICO · Report · 21 Apr 2015

Executive Summary The rising sense of frustration over reports of graft, influence peddling, and the political system in general, will undoubtedly find specific forms of expression as the public’s patience will presumably grow thinner given the appalling lack of sensitivity officials or their rel...

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