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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Fiscal Adjustment Battle: First Moves
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jun 2016

The government took an excellent first step toward the fiscal adjustment by sending to Congress a proposed constitutional amendment (PEC) establishing a cap on growth of the central government’s primary expenditures. But this is just the start of a long and arduous adjustment that will have to ex...

Falling FX Reserves, Stable HUF
HUNGARY · Report · 20 Jun 2016

The surprising weakness of manufacturing in Q1 was due mainly to a setback of output at Audi Hungária, which seems temporary. Already, substantial positive correction of industrial output was seen in April. Nonetheless, earlier stellar growth rates of the car industry are unlikely to return. The ...

Consequences of Raghuram Rajan's departure
INDIA · Report · 19 Jun 2016

Rajan's departure has been the subject of furious attention in the Indian tabloid press and on facebook/twitter. Millions of words will be written about this. The adverse impact of a Brexit upon India will be attributed as the adverse impact of Rajan's departure. We believe his departure does not...

A Political and Econ Update
TURKEY · Report · 16 Jun 2016

Because of pressing business affairs, we will not be able to issue a Weekly Tracker on Sunday. This note updates our readers on a few recent developments, in politics as well as in economics. Needless to say, we shall be back early next week… First, the good news. It now appears that AKP’s pr...

Weakening Foreign Assets
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Jun 2016

Public sector foreign assets are falling and becoming less liquid. According to our calculations, these assets (excluding Pdvsa) closed at $19.7 billion on 31 May 2016, $6.0 billion lower than our December 2015 estimate ($25.7 billion).

Machado plea bargain has limited impact on Temer
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jun 2016

Sérgio Machado’s plea bargain deal citing Michel Temer creates embarrassment for the president, causing wear and discomfort. However, it is important to examine the content and its impact on Temer carefully.

Not a tipping point yet
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 16 Jun 2016

On June 14, violent riots and looting were reported in Cumaná, capital of Sucre state, the poorest and most chavista state in Venezuela. This comes after more than 100 lootings across the country in recent weeks.Guided by the 1989 "Caracazo", which put governance to a severe test, conventional wi...

Economics: Risks to Consumption Growth
MEXICO · Report · 15 Jun 2016

Internal consumption, which has sustained its perch as the main growth driver of the Mexican economy, continues to expand at an extraordinarily fast pace through the second quarter of 2016, as evidenced by indicators such as the index of private consumption for the first quarter (it grew 4.7% yea...

Politics: Political Map for 2018 Redrawn
MEXICO · Report · 15 Jun 2016

The PRI entered this year’s campaign expecting to expand its absolute majority of state governors and gain momentum heading toward the 2018 election. Instead, on June 5 the PAN took seven of the 12 governorships in play as it jostled for the pole position ahead of the presidential contest. Th...

Starting the Campaign
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 15 Jun 2016

The United Russia Party hosted primaries ahead of the September 2016 parliamentary elections. The primaries will result in significant changes in the party nomination list because the current list of party members was put together by the previous leadership of the Presidential Administration, and...

Deterioration in the Current Account Balance Persists
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 14 Jun 2016 · 1 response

After easing to 3.1% during the second quarter of 2015 from 5.1% in the first quarter, the deficit on the current account as a percentage of GDP has been rising steadily since the third quarter of 2015, and registered 5.0% in the first quarter of 2016. The widening of the current account deficit ...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Jun 2016

The first month of the interim government of Michel Temer was marked by important victories, the most evident being the assembly of the economic team. The quality of the new team is unquestionable and extremely welcome. It includes people like Henrique Meirelles as finance minister, Ilan Goldfajn...

Week of June 13
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jun 2016

Interim President Michel Temer personally delivers to Congress the proposal that sets limits to increases in public spending. The idea is that public spending increases cannot outpace inflation. Another important issue is the trial of Eduardo Cunha in the Ethics Council. In the Senate, the Impeac...

The First Steps of the Adjustment
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Jun 2016

To achieve renewed growth while keeping inflation under control, Brazil needs various reforms, but by far the most important is in the fiscal area, to produce a return of primary surpluses large enough to lower the debt/GDP ratio. To start this adjustment, the government has chosen to avoid an im...

Business cycle conditions
INDIA · Report · 13 Jun 2016

The controversy about Indian GDP data has become acrimonious, as it has become linked up with the attempts of the administration to put its best foot forward at the Second Anniversary. The first data for the Jan-March 2016 quarter is now in hand. Conditions in the economy remain difficult. Despit...

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