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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Pre-Crisis Credit Boom
INDIA · Report · 11 May 2015

In Y. V. Reddy's period as governor (6/Sep/2003 to 5/Sep/2008), there was vigorous pursuit of exchange rate policy. In an attempt to defend the dollar, RBI purchased a lot of foreign assets and paid for this using rupees. These rupees distorted domestic monetary policy. At a time of the biggest e...

The Stock Market and Economic Activity
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 May 2015

From the way things are going now, nobody doubts that the Brazilian economy is entering a recession period. The doubt (and worry) is over how deep and how long the downturn will be. Although the recession will not be as deep as that in 2008-2009, it will probably be a good deal more persistent. N...

Weekly Tracker: May 10-16
TURKEY · Report · 10 May 2015

Executive Summary Turkish election campaigns have mutated into a three-way mudslinging match between AKP-MHP and HDP, while CHP has been marketing hugely expensive populist promises. We have a large number of polls, but they don’t increase our comfort with predictions.HDP is hovering right at the...

Managerial Decisions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 08 May 2015

Yet another rotation, with a federal minister’s going into the Presidential Administration and a regional governor’s becoming a federal minister, shows that Putin is firmly standing by his principle of rewarding loyalty above all else, and even more so if there is external pressure. Even certain ...

Congress Takes on Corruption
MEXICO · Report · 06 May 2015

Executive Summary With inflation in check, Mexico’s internal market continued to firm through March, thanks to job growth, wages that rose 5.8% y/y in real terms in Q1, and a firming of consumer confidence that has driven stronger retail sales. The tertiary sector has been the prime beneficiary o...

Anticlimax, for now
VENEZUELA · Report · 06 May 2015

President Maduro’s May 1st announcements were underwhelming. He didn’t take over Polar or other companies but left open the risk of potential takeovers in the food sector by exhorting Polar workers to ready themselves for “big challenges”. With threatening tone he announced "the great socialist o...

Deflation Continues
CHINA · Forecast · 06 May 2015

Executive Summary Crimped by economic slowdown and weak demand, GDP growth slid to a new low in Q1, edging up just 0.3 pp from Q4 2014, to 7% y/y. Value added for major industrial firms fell 1.2 pp, to grow only 6.4% y/y. Industrial output growth took the biggest hit, falling to 5.6% y/y in March...

Volatile Signals
CHILE · Report · 05 May 2015

Executive Summary Incoming data, especially on economic activity and consumption, must be taken with a grain of salt. This is because of the two significant natural disasters that hit the country in the past two months. Their economic impact is not easy to assess. On the consumption side, i...

Michel Temer faces first big challenge
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 May 2015

The House of Representatives may vote this afternoon on the first interim measure of the fiscal adjustment: MP 665/14, on unemployment insurance and salary bonuses. The vote will be the first major test of Vice President Michel Temer. In early April he took over the government’s political coordin...

Sowing the Seeds of Uncertainty
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 05 May 2015

Executive Summary Confidence across sections of the South African economy remains low, dragged by uncertainties about the electricity supply, industrial relations instability and socioeconomic tension. In all, economic performance appears to have entered a slow down phase. South Africa’s economic...

Returning to the “markets”?
ARGENTINA · Report · 04 May 2015

Executive Summary With the objective of validating access to the local capital market and softening the financing burden of sterilization costs on the Central Bank, the government reversed its prior “capital market independent” strategy, placing AR$ and US$ debt. The US$ debt placement not only h...

Week of May 4
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 May 2015

This week, the House tries to vote on its first fiscal austerity measure: MP 655, which deals with unemployment insurance and salary bonuses. In the Senate, Finance Minister Joaquim Levy speaks about the crisis and the long term expectations for the country. The IBGE will release April inflation ...

Difficulties in Achieving the Primary Surplus Target
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 May 2015

In this note we summarize the fiscal result for the first quarter, and based on the Central Government’s accounts, discuss the difficulties in meeting the target of 1.2% of GDP. With full transparency and without any artifices, in March the Central Government attained a primary surplus of R$ 1...

But Next Year, It Will Get Better...
TURKEY · Report · 04 May 2015

Today’s inflation print was unfavorable, with CPI inflation coming in at a higher than expected 1.6%, m/m. This has raised the 12-month CPI rate to just under 8% (7.9%, to be precise), further complicating the CBRT’s job and expectation management (Table 1; Graph 1).Food is largely to blame for t...

Weekly Tracker: May 3-9
TURKEY · Report · 03 May 2015

Executive Summary We reviewed the latest polls and revisited our scenarios. In 6 recent polls that we find credible, AKP is firmly in the lead but HDP makes it to parliament by the skin of its nose, while CHP is treading water. Nevertheless, poll momentum suggests that short-lived coalition gover...

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