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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Week of October 10
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Oct 2016

The fiscal austerity effort will see its first big test in the House this week. There are some obstacles: dissatisfaction within the governing coalition, obstruction from the opposition and the Wednesday holiday. Nevertheless, the main text should be approved. President Michel Temer presents Soci...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Oct 2016 · 1 response

The result of the municipal elections (mayors and council members) on October 2nd unquestionably defined a new outline of the political scenario in Brazil. If any doubts remained about the end of the PT’s cycle in power, the vote tallies laid them to rest. The economic recovery has been much s...

Caution About the Start of Recovery
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Oct 2016

The most recent economic activity indicators were disappointing and make it probable that GDP will contract further in the third quarter this year. Apparently the recession will be a bit longer than was expected a few weeks ago, and the latest numbers strengthen the forecast that the monetary eas...

Another unusually big fiscal cash surplus in September
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Oct 2016

The NGM has just reported a HUF 272 billion (9.4% of GDP) central government cash surplus for September. This reduced the cumulative Q1-Q3 deficit to just HUF 2 billion, meaning that on cash basis, the central government budget fully balanced over this period. The cumulative deficit fell from 3.8...

In Uncharted Waters
TURKEY · Report · 09 Oct 2016

We concede that AKP’s Gulenist purge is mutating into an all-out crackdown on dissent, with Alevites and Kurds also coming down under the hammer.The purge is unlikely to end in the next three months, with the number of affected at least doubling from the current headlines. The magnitude of the st...

PC growth slows but business sentiment improves
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Oct 2016

Several indicators are pointing to slower PC demand. This follows rapid growth of 10% SAAR in Q2. Slower growth in June-Aug is apparent in chain store sales, retail trade, consumer imports and debit card purchases. The Poalim consumer confidence index declined 3.1 points in September but remains ...

Month's Data Shows More Softening, whilst a potential PAN-AMLO race shapes up
MEXICO · Report · 06 Oct 2016

Indicators published during September painted a less than encouraging picture of the direction of the Mexican economy beginning with industrial data for July that showed output increased at a mere 0.3% year on year, according to seasonally adjusted data. Though there was a slight firming of manuf...

Municipal elections: Alckmin’s winning hand
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Oct 2016

Dória wins in the first round, and the PSDB takes over 107 new city governments, the best performance of any party.

Growth Would Address Fiscal and Monetary Imbalances
ARGENTINA · Report · 04 Oct 2016

This report covers three interlinked macroeconomic issues: a) the deterioration of the fiscal balance; b) the monetary impact of that deficit on Central Bank inflation targets, and the Bank’s modification of the reference rate; and c) whether high-frequency activity data sends hopeful signals for...

MTP 2017-19: Reality Bites
TURKEY · Report · 04 Oct 2016

Prime Minister Binali Yildirim announced the outlines of the government’s new Medium Term Program (MTP) today, the details of which will be available on Thursday. Recall that the previous MTP was originally issued in October (of 2015) but then revised in January this year. The table below provide...

Growth Smooth, and Picking Up
UKRAINE · Forecast · 04 Oct 2016

The Ukrainian economy has returned to a smooth growth trajectory. Absent any unexpected news, or shifts in macroeconomic trends, it’s hard to be displeased. External demand remains weak, and will hardly become a near-term driver of growth, though internal consumption has recovered steadily, which...

The European crisis in seven steps
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 04 Oct 2016

As much of a threat China’s high and rising debt burden has become to its continued growth, the biggest risks to the global economy probably lie in Europe, and especially in its banking system. • Growth rates in peripheral Europe continue to be revised downwards, and deadlines for budget deficit...

Political transition seems inevitable
VENEZUELA · Report · 04 Oct 2016

Political tensions are high in Venezuela. Everyone expects a transition soon, but no one is certain when it will happen or who will control it. After a long delay, the National Electoral Council (CNE) announced that the second of three stages in the presidential recall process—the collection o...

​MPC cuts rate
INDIA · In Brief · 04 Oct 2016

In its first meeting following being given a legal mandate to target inflation, RBI cut the policy rate by 25 basis points. This was in line with what I had suggested in my note over the weekend titled “First meeting of RBI’s MPC” before the meeting started. The decision was unanimous, as expecte...

Feedback on the IMF Memorandum: Next Wire Will not be Soon
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Oct 2016

Yesterday the IMF Memorandum was finally released. Our impression from the document – this year prospects for next wire are slim. At the document the IMF talks about submission of law on agriculture land circulation to the parliament and about utility-related social assistance program adjustment ...

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