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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Aug 20
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Brazil Economics databank Aug 16
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Central America databank Aug 30
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Chile databank Jul 22
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Sep 5
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Dominican Republic databank Jul 18
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Ecuador databank Aug 20
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Gulf Countries databank Sep 6
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Hungary databank Aug 14
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India databank Aug 23
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Mexico databank Jul 9
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Panama databank Jun 7
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Peru databank Aug 22
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Philippines databank Aug 8
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Russia Economics databank Aug 13
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South Africa databank Aug 30
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Turkey databank Jun 10
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Ukraine databank Aug 14
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Venezuela databank Aug 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - ARGENTINA: UPCOMING TRIGGERS AND REMAINING CONCERNS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Weekly Tracker: May 17-23
TURKEY · Report · 17 May 2015
Executive Summary With three weeks left to the ballot date, opinion polls mostly reflect the political bias of the polling company, rather than the reality. We stick to our forecast of a weak AKP victory, with HDP making it to the parliament. Yet, it is quite possible that voters are lying to pol...
Heading for the Homestretch
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 14 May 2015
Executive Summary The government of Benigno Aquino is heading towards its last year in office basking in glowing reviews about the resilience and growth potential of the economy.As the din characteristic of pre-election Philippines grows louder, many wonder whether they will see a more active Pre...
Economics: Credit Still Flowing to Businesses
MEXICO · Report · 13 May 2015
Executive Summary In keeping with the recovery seen in internal consumption of recent months, bank credit for durable goods purchases increased in each of the first three months of 2015 and in the process capped a 14-month long contraction in the availability of such loans. However, credit issued...
Growth & Fiscal Policy Remain Largely Intact
HUNGARY · Report · 13 May 2015
Executive Summary Preliminary Q1 2015 GDP (+0.6% qoq, +3.1% yoy sda) was slightly down from last year but growth is still running at relatively high pace, due to strong consumer demand and impressive export data. The government’s 2015 GDP forecast has been raised to 3.1%, suggesting that the econ...
Politics: The New Face of Organized Crime
MEXICO · Report · 12 May 2015
Executive Summary Over the course of an eight-year government offensive against drug trafficking, the structure of organized crime has morphed and fragmented considerably. Gone are almost all of the drug cartels of yesteryear and in their place have emerged myriad criminal gangs that are more foc...
Cabinet Shuffle in Chile
CHILE · Report · 12 May 2015
Cabinet shuffles are common in Chile. Indeed, most cabinets do not survive a president’s first year of office intact. In that sense yesterday’s cabinet shuffle comes as no surprise and may even be seen as slightly overdue.
Week of May 11
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 May 2015
The House votes on another fiscal austerity measure: MP 664/14 (pension and sick leave). In the Senate, the appointment of Luiz Edson Fachin to the Supreme Court will be analyzed. On Friday, President Dilma may launch the concessions program, an attempt by the government to implement a positive a...
The Pre-Crisis Credit Boom
INDIA · Report · 11 May 2015
In Y. V. Reddy's period as governor (6/Sep/2003 to 5/Sep/2008), there was vigorous pursuit of exchange rate policy. In an attempt to defend the dollar, RBI purchased a lot of foreign assets and paid for this using rupees. These rupees distorted domestic monetary policy. At a time of the biggest e...
The Stock Market and Economic Activity
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 May 2015
From the way things are going now, nobody doubts that the Brazilian economy is entering a recession period. The doubt (and worry) is over how deep and how long the downturn will be. Although the recession will not be as deep as that in 2008-2009, it will probably be a good deal more persistent. N...
Weekly Tracker: May 10-16
TURKEY · Report · 10 May 2015
Executive Summary Turkish election campaigns have mutated into a three-way mudslinging match between AKP-MHP and HDP, while CHP has been marketing hugely expensive populist promises. We have a large number of polls, but they don’t increase our comfort with predictions.HDP is hovering right at the...
Managerial Decisions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 08 May 2015
Yet another rotation, with a federal minister’s going into the Presidential Administration and a regional governor’s becoming a federal minister, shows that Putin is firmly standing by his principle of rewarding loyalty above all else, and even more so if there is external pressure. Even certain ...
Congress Takes on Corruption
MEXICO · Report · 06 May 2015
Executive Summary With inflation in check, Mexico’s internal market continued to firm through March, thanks to job growth, wages that rose 5.8% y/y in real terms in Q1, and a firming of consumer confidence that has driven stronger retail sales. The tertiary sector has been the prime beneficiary o...
Anticlimax, for now
VENEZUELA · Report · 06 May 2015
President Maduro’s May 1st announcements were underwhelming. He didn’t take over Polar or other companies but left open the risk of potential takeovers in the food sector by exhorting Polar workers to ready themselves for “big challenges”. With threatening tone he announced "the great socialist o...
Deflation Continues
CHINA · Forecast · 06 May 2015
Executive Summary Crimped by economic slowdown and weak demand, GDP growth slid to a new low in Q1, edging up just 0.3 pp from Q4 2014, to 7% y/y. Value added for major industrial firms fell 1.2 pp, to grow only 6.4% y/y. Industrial output growth took the biggest hit, falling to 5.6% y/y in March...
Volatile Signals
CHILE · Report · 05 May 2015
Executive Summary Incoming data, especially on economic activity and consumption, must be taken with a grain of salt. This is because of the two significant natural disasters that hit the country in the past two months. Their economic impact is not easy to assess. On the consumption side, i...