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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: Crime Rate Largely Unchanged, but Black Figure Remains High
MEXICO · Report · 07 Oct 2015

Executive Summary Public security and crime is a major issue in Mexican society. The 2015 National Survey on Victimization and Public Safety (ENVIPE) conducted by the National Statistics Institute (INEGI) sheds light on crime rates and the types of crimes committed. But the raw numbers don’t tell...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Oct 2015

By sending a deficitary budget bill for 2016 to Congress, the government signaled it has thrown in the towel regarding even a modicum of fiscal responsibility, and at the start of September S&P lowered the country’s rating from investment grade. The consequent reduction of external credit will de...

Taxing Problem
PHILIPPINES · Report · 05 Oct 2015

This time last year, we called attention to the higher likelihood of congress’s passing revenue-eroding tax measures as election season approached.[1] And indeed a few months later, President Aquino signed a law increasing the tax-exempt threshold for employee bonuses, adjusting for inflation the...

Disinflation in October
VENEZUELA · Report · 05 Oct 2015

We forecast the NCPI MOM rate slowing to 12.0% in October. The YOY rate rises to 228.1% in October from 207.7% in September. We keep our September estimate virtually unchanged at 17.1% vs 17.7% in our previous report.

Week October 5
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Oct 2015

A busy week ahead: New ministers take office on Monday. On Tuesday, Congress will attempt to vote on the presidential vetoes, and the TSE may conclude its ruling on the opening of an investigation on the president’s reelection campaign accounts. The TCU will analyze President Dilma Rousseff’s 201...

Recent Data Indicate the Recession is Getting Worse
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Oct 2015

The latest data confirm what was until recently only a suspicion – that GDP in the third quarter contracted by around 1%, or an annualized figure of 4%. The most recent numbers also undermine the hope that GDP might stabilize in the fourth quarter. Both the tightening of financial conditions and ...

Has investment revived?
INDIA · Report · 05 Oct 2015

Micro data about investment is reliable and is released immediately after the end of a quarter. Hence, on October 5 we are able to observe the Jul-Sep 2015 quarter. This is the first macro data release for the Jul-Sep 2015 quarter. The attempts by the government at solving the institutional bo...

Dilma Rousseff Government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Oct 2015

The Ministerial reform will only be determined a success if it passes its first pivotal test: the vote on Dilma´s vetoes. These vetoes will be a determining factor in the success of the fiscal adjustment. This voting session is scheduled for next Tuesday.

Lira Pass-Through Drives Inflation
TURKEY · Report · 05 Oct 2015

Consumer prices rose by a higher than expected 0.9% in September (expectation: 0.7%), which meant an increase in the 12-month rate to just under 8% (7.95%, to be precise) from 7.1% in August. Food prices explain about 0.2 percentage point of the increase in the 12-month rate with the rest attribu...

A Pre-Election FAQ Sheet
TURKEY · Report · 04 Oct 2015

The big “Syria story”, i.e. the one concerning Russian involvement in the Syrian war has only marginal relevance for Turkey. But the capture of a Turkish soldier by ISIS may lead to renewed cooperation between the terror organization and certain elements within the Turkish state. New attacks on I...

Looking beyond December
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Oct 2015

With the support of over 50 percent of likely voters, the opposition is on its way to winning a National Assembly majority on December 6. Some even think that the opposition could win a two-thirds majority. We’re more cautious. The heavily tilted playing field will play a larger role as elections...

Dilma Rousseff Government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Oct 2015

President cuts eight ministries and reduces ministers’ salaries by 10% Today, October 2, President Dilma Rousseff divulged her administrative and ministerial reforms, with the objective of reconstructing her governing base in the National Congress. The number of ministries fell from 39 to 31.

A Mild Slowdown, the 2016 Budget and the Political Headlines
PANAMA · Report · 01 Oct 2015

As we expected, real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2015 was 5.8% and 6.0% in the first semester. In H1 2015, the dynamic sectors of the economy included electricity, gas and water; social and private health services; and financial intermediation. Commerce, Transportation, and Construction ...

Should the Central Bank Exchange its Currency Swaps for Reserves?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Oct 2015

Interventions in the foreign exchange market are a controversial subject. While small interventions trying to dampen excessive volatility are one thing, heavy interventions to change the level of the exchange rate, when the economy is suffering from extreme macroeconomic imbalances, is quite anot...

Economy Stabilizes, But Recovery is Far Away
UKRAINE · Forecast · 01 Oct 2015

We continue to observe positive developments in the economy. GDP shrinkage slowed down from -17.2% y/y in Q1 to -14.6% y/y in Q2.Industrial output’s ongoing decline shrank “just” -5.8% y/y in August, from -20.5% y/y in H1. As the hryvnia strengthened, disinflation was also noticeable. The risks t...

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