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Resumption of Growth: Official Discourse versus Reality
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Oct 2015

The economic team insists that the Brazilian economy will start recovering soon, boosting tax revenues, which is necessary to generate primary surpluses. But a large mass of data indicates exactly the opposite. Two of these indicators are household consumption and GDP in the service sector. Numbe...

Weekly Tracker: October 18-24
TURKEY · Report · 18 Oct 2015

Turkey and EU began negotiations on a deal that would see Turkey stop the flow of Syrian migrants to the latter in return for, among other things, opening of 6 new chapters. A break-through would be magnificent in terms of reinvigorating the “convergence play", but it is too early to bet on it be...

Economics: Mexico’s TPP Letdown
MEXICO · Report · 14 Oct 2015

Executive Summary Following five years of negotiations (only three in the case of Mexico, which joined the talks in 2012) a basic agreement has been reached to sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership, although many legal details have yet to be finalized. The idea for the treaty arose out of an agreeme...

Politics: Corruption and Independent Candidates
MEXICO · Report · 14 Oct 2015

Since the attempt to re-launch the government around the time of President Enrique Peña Nieto’s third State of the Nation address, politics has settled into some semblance of calm, with the exception of the frictions that have played out between the Mexican government and international human righ...

Did Ankara tragedy bring the parties closer?
TURKEY · In Brief · 14 Oct 2015

Once again, I’m using the opportunity provided by a reader in the form of a question to write an update. May I take this opportunity to kindly ask all of our readers to use our website to post their questions to me, Cosmo and Dr Murat Ucer? This is the question: Hi. Clearly the attack was a huge ...

Week of October 13
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Oct 2015

Monday’s holiday will not cool the heated political atmosphere, especially in the House. Lower House President Eduardo Cunha promises to come to a decision regarding the impeachment requests against President Dilma Rousseff. The probability is that he will archive them, but the opposition is mobi...

The Fiscal Disaster and Risk of Populism
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Oct 2015

Brazil needs a broad and deep fiscal policy reform. However, over the past 10 months, the government, politically weakened, has only managed: to place an insufficient amount of budget allocations on contingency; to enact a timid reform of the rules on unemployment insurance, salary bonus and wido...

Dilma Rousseff Government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Oct 2015

51% of federal representatives believe impeachment proceedings will be opened 67% are pessimistic about the likelihood of approval of the CPMF (Provisional Contribution on Financial Transfers) 70% evaluate current economic policy as poor or terrible66% evaluate the relationship between Executive ...

Weekly Tracker: October 11-17
TURKEY · Report · 11 Oct 2015

Ankara was rattled by the largest terror attack in the history of the Republic, which is certain to add to the polarization of the nation and increase the uncertainly of election results. On the foreign policy front, Turkey and Russia are heading towards the biggest crisis since the Cold War, ...

Crusade
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 09 Oct 2015

For the first time in recent history, Russia started a military operation far from its own territory in order to support Syria’s President Assad in his fight against ISIS and other armed opposition groups. The Kremlin’s goals are to support one of the few of the remaining allies, improve its nego...

Dilma Rousseff Government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Oct 2015

In less than one year, President Dilma Rousseff has achieved a record number of political defeats and placed her mandate in serious peril. Five days ago, President Dilma Rousseff announced a political and administrative cabinet reform under the guidance and influence of former President Lula. ...

Dilma Rousseff Government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Oct 2015

The Federal Court of Accounts (TCU) unanimously approved on October 7 the opinion of rapporteur, Augusto Nardes, which recommends that Congress reject President Dilma’s 2014 accounts. Namely, her accounting practices were found to be illegal.

September CPI data changes inflation outlook markedly
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Oct 2015

Falling crude oil prices seem to have been playing to the hands of the MNB's policy of monetary easing recently, just as we pointed out in our mid-September monthly. But there is one big difference between actuals and the inflation outlook we provided in that report: at that time, domestic fuel p...

Economics: Changes in Gasoline Price Regulations
MEXICO · Report · 07 Oct 2015 · 1 response

In its economic package for 2016, the executive branch proposes moving up the liberalization of gas prices to 2016, seeking to transition toward a free-market system for selling gasoline and diesel to the public and ensuring that cap prices begin to move consistently in line with international be...

Syria: What does Russia want from Turkey?
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Oct 2015

Man, Russia entered the Syrian equation in a big way, like an elephant enters a china shop to register wedding gifts. Kremlin is using an array of air assets to bomb all anti-Assad targets in the country, encouraged by which the regulars are attacking opposition forces around Hama and Idlip. Puti...

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