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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Oct 15
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Brazil Economics databank Oct 15
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Central America databank Sep 30
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Chile databank Sep 13
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Oct 4
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Dominican Republic databank Sep 13
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Ecuador databank Sep 20
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Gulf Countries databank Oct 11
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Hungary databank Sep 10
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India databank Sep 24
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Mexico databank Sep 11
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Panama databank Sep 11
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Peru databank Oct 15
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Philippines databank Oct 10
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Russia Economics databank Oct 11
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South Africa databank Oct 3
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Turkey databank Sep 18
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Ukraine databank Aug 14
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Venezuela databank Oct 3
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - GEORGIA'S ELECTIONS AND CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA OU...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Week of August 3
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Aug 2015
Expectations with the return of Congressional activity.President Dilma Rousseff meets with party leaders of the governing coalition this Monday (3) to improve the climate between the Executive and Legislative.She will appear in the PT’s radio and TV program on Thursday.Leaders have until August 6...
Sharp Deceleration of Credit
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Aug 2015
One of the (many) reasons the current recession will be longer than the one in 2008-2009 is the behavior of credit. Growth of the credit stock started to slow in early 2011, and has been stagnant in 2015, with lending by both private and public banks decelerating. The flow of new loans to both bu...
The Monetary Policy Dilemmas
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Aug 2015
Last week the COPOM ended the tightening cycle with one more hike of 50 basis points, taking the SELIC rate to 14.25%, where according to the communiqué it will remain “for a sufficiently prolonged period.” But how long might that be? On the one hand, the Central Bank wants to bring inflation dow...
Inflation Eases, But Best Is Likely Over
TURKEY · Report · 03 Aug 2015
Consumer price inflation moved little in July (0.1%), m/m, broadly in line with the consensus. This led to another easing in the 12-month rate to 6.8%, from 7.2% in June. Food price inflation stayed broadly unchanged at some 9.3%, y/y, while underlying inflation dynamics finally showed some moder...
Desperate For A Coalition
TURKEY · Forecast · 31 Jul 2015
Executive Summary With coalition talks proceeding very slowly, the ISIS/PKK threats on the rise and emerging markets under pressure, macro visibility has never been this poor. Our political baseline is reelections now (60% probability), even though the political landscape is unlikely to change mu...
Perpetual Election Mode
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Jul 2015
Executive Summary We’re all focused on the December 6 National Assembly elections, but voters will also choose governors in 2016, mayors in 2017, and a president in 2018. And there just might be a presidential recall referendum after April of next year. This means that the government will rema...
A Heavy Burden
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 31 Jul 2015
Executive Summary In Argentina nobody discusses the need for a correction in economic policy. The debate is only about the scale and the speed of the required adjustments. The old debate concerning “gradualism versus shock” has returned with the intensity it had in the literature of stabilization...
Costa Rica: The Central Bank revised its Macroeconomic Program
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Jul 2015
As stated by law, the Central Bank of Costa Rica announced yesterday its revision of the Macroeconomic Program 2015-2016, which was originally published in late January. There are no major changes in the Bank´s policy orientation, but there is a revision in the forecast of the macro-variables for...
En route to hyperinflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Jul 2015
We forecast the NCPI August MOM inflation rate at 18.3 percent. The YOY rate rises to 208.5 percent in August from 171.0 percent in July. Inflation accelerates reflecting the rapid rise of the price of the dollar in the parallel market in July (41.8 percent), steady monetary expansion, supply cha...
Costa Rica: Fiscal Challenges
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Jul 2015
Executive Summary The outlook for Costa Rica for the next 17 months is for modest growth, and relative stability. But fiscal vulnerability will present challenges for controlling inflation, interest rates and the exchange rate. By yearend, we expect to see modest economic growth (2.3% y/y); low h...
Can this tell us about future price action?
CHINA FINANCIAL · In Brief · 30 Jul 2015
If this model is appropriate (i.e. if enough investors believe that there is a consensus around brokers selling substantially once the index breaks 4,500), there are two obvious implications. First, if Beijing wants the market to keep rising, it must either convince investors that brokers will no...
The consensus about the consensus
CHINA FINANCIAL · In Brief · 30 Jul 2015
I don’t know if this is indeed what triggered the selling, but on Thursday, July 23, following a string of uninterrupted up days, the market closed at a new recent high of 4,124, after which it dropped sharply every day for the next three days to close down by just over 11%, at 3,663. This is exa...
Long stocks = short synthetic put?
CHINA FINANCIAL · In Brief · 30 Jul 2015
My worry was that as the index approached 4,100 or higher, the threat of intense selling by capital-tight brokers at 4,500 meant that anyone buying shares was implicitly giving away a free call at 4,500, and the higher prices went, the less upside there was and the more downside. Remember that if...
But is there a speed bump?
CHINA FINANCIAL · In Brief · 30 Jul 2015
There was one measure about which there is some disagreement as to its size and its importance, but this might be more than counterbalanced by the very simple and clear signal it gives. Sorry for repeating my earlier messages, but here is what I wrote back then: "I realize this is very abstract, ...
The power of Beijing's "brute force"
CHINA FINANCIAL · In Brief · 30 Jul 2015
Three weeks ago Beijing managed to stop the panic with the use of what I called “brute force”, by which I meant that there was never likely to be much impact from interest rate moves, regulatory changes, margin relaxation, and so on. This is because there had been such a remarkable convergence am...